Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2003

Mesoscale Discussion 154

February 24, 200315 counties in Arkansas; 37 counties in Texas

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Feb 24, 2003, 6:48 PM CST for 15 counties in Arkansas; 37 counties in Texas. It was in force for 6 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Feb 24, 2003, 6:48 PM CST (00:48 UTC)
Expired
Feb 25, 2003, 1:15 AM CST
In force
6 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
All 52 counties

Calhoun County, AR, Clark County, AR, Cleveland County, AR, Dallas County, AR, Grant County, AR, Hempstead County, AR, Hot Spring County, AR, Howard County, AR, Lafayette County, AR, Little River County, AR, Miller County, AR, Nevada County, AR, Ouachita County, AR, Pike County, AR, Sevier County, AR, Anderson County, TX, Bowie County, TX, Camp County, TX, Cass County, TX, Collin County, TX, Dallas County, TX, Delta County, TX, Denton County, TX, Ellis County, TX, Falls County, TX, Fannin County, TX, Franklin County, TX, Freestone County, TX, Grayson County, TX, Gregg County, TX, Henderson County, TX, Hill County, TX, Hopkins County, TX, Hunt County, TX, Johnson County, TX, Kaufman County, TX, Lamar County, TX, Leon County, TX, Limestone County, TX, Marion County, TX, Morris County, TX, Navarro County, TX, Rains County, TX, Red River County, TX, Robertson County, TX, Rockwall County, TX, Smith County, TX, Tarrant County, TX, Titus County, TX, Upshur County, TX, Van Zandt County, TX, Wood County, TX

The radar

The Shreveport radar (KSHV), 112 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 00:48 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Shreveport, LA (KSHV), launched 00:00Z, 0.8 hours before the alert went out and 119 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Shreveport, LA at 00:00Z on 2003-02-25Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Shreveport, LA at 00:00Z on 2003-02-25The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 124 square meters per square second.1939587897Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
811 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
70 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
124 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
300 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

486 
ACUS11 KWNS 250049
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250048 
TXZ000-OKZ000-ARZ000-250715-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0154
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0648 PM CST MON FEB 24 2003

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN TX...EXTREME SERN OK...SWRN AND S CENTRAL
AR

CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION 

VALID 250048Z - 250715Z

MDT TO HVY SLEET IS EXPECTED MAINLY WITHIN A TRIANGLE FROM TYR TO
DAL TO PBF.  A MIXTURE OF SLEET AND SNOW IS EXPECTED NORTH OF
THIS AREA ALONG THE RED RIVER EWD TO NEAR LIT.



PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
OVER NERN KS AND SPREAD INTO SRN AR LATER THIS EVENING.  LOW
LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION AND INCREASING FRONTOGENETICAL LIFT WILL
INCREASE AVAILABLE MOISTURE FOR HOURLY RATES...BUT WILL ALLOW FOR
AN INCREASING WARM NOSE ABOVE A COLD BOUNDARY LAYER.  THEREFORE
ICE PELLETS / SLEET IS EXPECTED OVER MOST OF THE DISCUSSION AREA.
SNOW WILL BE MOST LIKELY OVER SERN OK AND W-CENTRAL AR WHERE
ENTIRE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE IS FORECAST TO BE BELOW FREEZING. 
PRECIPITATION RATES WILL ALSO BE ENHANCED PERIODICALLY BY
EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS GIVEN PRESENCE OF MARGINAL
INSTABILITY.

..JEWELL.. 02/25/2003

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

31619718 32839751 33759657 34299380 34489238 34169188
33709207 33379302 32969418 32009502 30769642 31379712

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Feb 24, 8:55 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCArkansas, Cleveland, Craighead, Crittenden, Cross, Faulkner and 18 more5 hr
Feb 25, 2:20 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCArkansas, Ashley, Bradley, Calhoun, Chicot, Clark and 23 more4 hr
Feb 25, 3:09 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAustin, Brazos, Burleson, Chambers, Colorado, Fayette and 15 more2 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2003Mesoscale Discussions in Arkansas, 2003Every mesoscale discussion in 2003

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.