Alert archive / North Dakota / Mesoscale Discussions in 2003

Mesoscale Discussion 1449

June 22, 200312 counties in Minnesota; 25 counties in North Dakota; 7 counties in South Dakota

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jun 22, 2003, 12:45 AM CDT for 12 counties in Minnesota; 25 counties in North Dakota; 7 counties in South Dakota. It was in force for 60 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jun 22, 2003, 12:45 AM CDT (05:45 UTC)
Expired: Jun 22, 2003, 1:45 AM CDT
In force: 60 min
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center

All 44 counties

Big Stone County, MN, Clay County, MN, Grant County, MN, Kittson County, MN, Marshall County, MN, Norman County, MN, Pennington County, MN, Polk County, MN, Red Lake County, MN, Stevens County, MN, Traverse County, MN, Wilkin County, MN, Barnes County, ND, Benson County, ND, Cass County, ND, Cavalier County, ND, Dickey County, ND, Eddy County, ND, Foster County, ND, Grand Forks County, ND, Griggs County, ND, Kidder County, ND, LaMoure County, ND, Logan County, ND, McIntosh County, ND, Nelson County, ND, Pembina County, ND, Ramsey County, ND, Ransom County, ND, Richland County, ND, Sargent County, ND, Steele County, ND, Stutsman County, ND, Towner County, ND, Traill County, ND, Walsh County, ND, Wells County, ND, Brown County, SD, Day County, SD, Edmunds County, SD, Grant County, SD, Marshall County, SD, McPherson County, SD, Roberts County, SD

The radar

The Fargo/Grand Forks radar (KMVX), 94 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 05:47 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Bismarck Municip, ND (KBIS), launched 00:00Z, 5.8 hours before the alert went out and 184 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 527 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -152 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1228 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 55 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 59 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 182 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.2
Supercell composite: 2.9

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

660 
ACUS11 KWNS 220545
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 220545 
MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-220645-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1449
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1245 AM CDT SUN JUN 22 2003

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN ND/NERN SD/WRN MN

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 557...

VALID 220545Z - 220645Z

THE THREAT OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...WW 0557 WILL LIKELY BE ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE AT 07Z.

REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC AND SURFACE MESOANALYSIS SHOW LEADING EDGE OF
CONVECTIVE LINE AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOL EXTENDING FROM
APPROXIMATELY 25SE OF BJI TO 20W OF AXN TO 15NW OF ATY. RUC ANALYSIS
FIELDS SUGGEST THAT THE NRN END OF THIS LINE HAS PROGRESSED E OF
LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY AXIS WHILE SRN PORTION /NW OF ATY/ IS
CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH MLCAPES
OF 1000-1500 J/KG.

ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH THE SRN PORTION OF
THIS LINE THROUGH 07Z...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE TRACK OF A BOWING/LEWP
REFLECTIVITY STRUCTURE CURRENTLY OBSERVED OVER ROBERTS AND DAY
COUNTIES IN NERN SD.

INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC STABILITY OVER WRN MN SUGGEST ONGOING
CONVECTION SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS IT CONTINUES TO PROGRESS EWD.
THUS...WW 0557 WILL LIKELY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 07Z.

..MEAD.. 06/22/2003

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...ABR...BIS...

46969993 48709986 48869957 48889602 48639570 45399600
45129634 45149971 45309993

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jun 21, 9:13 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Becker, Big Stone, Clay, Clearwater, Grant, Kittson and 10 more	92 min
Jun 22, 2:55 PM CDT	Tornado Watch	SPC	Becker, Beltrami, Big Stone, Chippewa, Clay, Clearwater and 27 more	6 hr
Jun 22, 3:35 PM CDT	Tornado Watch	SPC	Jackson, Nobles, Rock	5 hr
Jun 22, 5:59 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Becker, Beltrami, Big Stone, Chippewa, Clay, Clearwater and 24 more	61 min
Jun 22, 6:31 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Aitkin, Benton, Cass, Crow Wing, Isanti, Itasca and 6 more	89 min
Jun 22, 1:47 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Adams, Billings, Bowman, Dunn, Golden Valley, Grant and 4 more	118 min
Jun 22, 2:15 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Adams, Billings, Bowman, Burleigh, Dunn, Emmons and 11 more	7 hr
Jun 22, 5:48 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Adams, Billings, Bowman, Burleigh, Dunn, Emmons and 11 more	117 min
Jun 21, 7:54 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Aurora, Beadle, Bennett, Bon Homme, Brule, Buffalo and 28 more	66 min
Jun 21, 8:15 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Aurora, Beadle, Bon Homme, Brule, Buffalo, Charles Mix and 26 more	6 hr
Jun 21, 10:26 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Aurora, Beadle, Brule, Buffalo, Charles Mix, Clark and 15 more	94 min
Jun 22, 1:27 AM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Aurora, Beadle, Bon Homme, Brule, Buffalo, Charles Mix and 25 more	63 min
Jun 22, 2:27 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Aurora, Beadle, Bon Homme, Brookings, Brule, Buffalo and 27 more	2 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in North Dakota, 2003 Mesoscale Discussions in Minnesota, 2003 Mesoscale Discussions in South Dakota, 2003 Every mesoscale discussion in 2003

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.