Alert archive / North Carolina / Mesoscale Discussions in 2003

Mesoscale Discussion 142

February 22, 200339 counties in North Carolina; 7 counties in South Carolina

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Feb 22, 2003, 9:47 PM EST for 39 counties in North Carolina; 7 counties in South Carolina. It was in force for 118 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Feb 22, 2003, 9:47 PM EST (02:47 UTC)
Expired: Feb 22, 2003, 11:45 PM EST
In force: 118 min
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center

All 46 counties

Alexander County, NC, Anson County, NC, Beaufort County, NC, Bertie County, NC, Cabarrus County, NC, Camden County, NC, Catawba County, NC, Chowan County, NC, Cleveland County, NC, Craven County, NC, Currituck County, NC, Dare County, NC, Davidson County, NC, Davie County, NC, Duplin County, NC, Gaston County, NC, Gates County, NC, Greene County, NC, Hertford County, NC, Hyde County, NC, Iredell County, NC, Jones County, NC, Lenoir County, NC, Lincoln County, NC, Martin County, NC, Mecklenburg County, NC, Montgomery County, NC, Pamlico County, NC, Pasquotank County, NC, Perquimans County, NC, Pitt County, NC, Randolph County, NC, Rowan County, NC, Rutherford County, NC, Stanly County, NC, Tyrrell County, NC, Union County, NC, Washington County, NC, Wayne County, NC, Cherokee County, SC, Chester County, SC, Chesterfield County, SC, Lancaster County, SC, Spartanburg County, SC, Union County, SC, York County, SC

The radar

The Raleigh/Durham radar (KRAX), 64 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 02:49 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC (KGSO), launched 00:00Z, 2.8 hours before the alert went out and 107 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 23 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -224 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 569 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 92 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 333 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 344 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

294 
ACUS11 KWNS 230248
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 230247 
NCZ000-SCZ000-230445-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0142
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0847 PM CST SAT FEB 22 2003

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF WRN NC/NWRN SC AND ERN NC

CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS 

VALID 230247Z - 230445Z

A WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.



TWO AREAS OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING DURING THE
LAST HOUR OR SO.  FIRST AREA IS OVER PARTS OF NWRN SC INTO WRN NC
UNDERNEATH STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL JET JUST IN ADVANCE OF SLIGHTLY
NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH.  AIR MASS IS MARGINALLY
UNSTABLE WITH SFC BASED CAPE AROUND 500 J/KG...BUT WITH STEEPER
LAPSE RATES NEAR 7C/KM.  THIS ACTIVITY IS ALSO OCCURRING WITHIN A
POCKET OF MID 60 TEMPERATURES/LOWER 60S DEW POINTS WHICH HAS BEEN
AIDING THE SHALLOW-TYPE CONVECTION.  THIS AREA COULD EXPERIENCE
PERIODS OF STORMS WITH SMALL HAIL OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.



THE SECOND AREA IS JUST AHEAD OF RAPIDLY MOVING CLUSTER OF STRONG
STORMS MOVING NNEWD ALONG COLD FRONT ACROSS SERN NC.  MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW STRONG WINDS DOWN INTO THE LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER
WITH FORECASTS TO 60 KT.  RUC MODELS SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW THESE
STRONG WINDS WITH SLIGHTLY ELEVATED CAPE NEAR 1300 J/KG.  THE
WINDS MAY BE OVERESTIMATED GIVEN THAT SURFACE WINDS CURRENTLY
SHOW 10-15 KT...BUT THERE IS A THREAT FOR STRONG WINDS WITH THIS
ACTIVITY AS WELL AS SOME MARGINAL HAIL.



..MCCARTHY.. 02/23/2003

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

34428139 34648193 35248219 36098131 36067993 35827922
34797998 

34467747 34767827 35527797 35977725 36737680 36437594
35157543

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in North Carolina, 2003 Mesoscale Discussions in South Carolina, 2003 Every mesoscale discussion in 2003

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.