Alert archive / Colorado / Mesoscale Discussions in 2003

Mesoscale Discussion 1306

June 10, 20035 states

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jun 10, 2003, 5:20 PM MDT for 5 states. It was in force for 2 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jun 10, 2003, 5:20 PM MDT (23:20 UTC)
Expired
Jun 10, 2003, 7:45 PM MDT
In force
2 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
All 39 counties

Adams County, CO, Arapahoe County, CO, Denver County, CO, Elbert County, CO, Kit Carson County, CO, Logan County, CO, Morgan County, CO, Phillips County, CO, Sedgwick County, CO, Washington County, CO, Weld County, CO, Yuma County, CO, Cheyenne County, KS, Rawlins County, KS, Sherman County, KS, Thomas County, KS, Banner County, NE, Box Butte County, NE, Chase County, NE, Cheyenne County, NE, Dawes County, NE, Deuel County, NE, Dundy County, NE, Garden County, NE, Kimball County, NE, Morrill County, NE, Scotts Bluff County, NE, Sioux County, NE, Custer County, SD, Fall River County, SD, Lawrence County, SD, Campbell County, WY, Converse County, WY, Crook County, WY, Goshen County, WY, Laramie County, WY, Niobrara County, WY, Platte County, WY, Weston County, WY

The radar

The Cheyenne radar (KCYS), 176 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 23:22 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Rapid City, SD (KUNR), launched 12:00Z, 11.3 hours before the alert went out and 186 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Rapid City, SD at 12:00Z on 2003-06-10Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Rapid City, SD at 12:00Z on 2003-06-10The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity -48 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
788 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
26 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
-48 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
4 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

154 
ACUS11 KWNS 102320
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 102320 
KSZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-110145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1306
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0620 PM CDT TUE JUN 10 2003

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN WY...EXTREME WRN SD...NEBRASKA PANHANDLE...NERN
NCO

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 102320Z - 110145Z

A FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL AND WIND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
EVENING.  WW NOT EXPECTED.

MODERATE INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED OVER ERN WY AND NERN CO WITH
MLCAPES AROUND 1500 J/KG.  WLY FLOW ALOFT ATOP SELY SURFACE FLOW IS
PRODUCING SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION.  STRONGER WIND
PROFILES OVER NERN WY INTO SWRN SD UNDER UPPER JET ARE MORE
CONDUCIVE TO SUPERCELLS...WITH STRONGER LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND HELICITY
PRESENT.  OBJECTIVE RUC ANALYSIS WITHIN THIS DATA SPARSE REGION
SHOWS 150-250 0-3 KM SRH.  SHEAR PROFILES FROM SERN WY SWD INTO CO
FAVOR SPLITTING/MULTI CELLS...DUE TO RELATIVELY STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS.
 ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER ERN CO WITH STORMS
MOVING WITH MORE OF A SLY COMPONENT...PRODUCING LARGER HAIL.

STRONG CIN GRADIENT ALONG THE WY/SD BORDER SUGGEST THAT STORMS WILL
NOT MAKE IT FAR INTO SD BEFORE DISSIPATING.  FURTHER S...MORE AREA
EXISTS INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND NWRN KS...WHERE A MARGINALLY
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT EXISTS ALONG WITH MINIMAL CIN.  INCREASING SELY
LLJ IN THESE AREAS WILL MAKE FOR ISOLATED HAIL OR WIND INTO EARLY
EVENING.

..JEWELL.. 06/10/2003

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...GLD...BOU...CYS...

43310578 44840570 44610346 43830327 42710304 39220065
39280483

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jun 10, 12:06 PM MDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAdams, Arapahoe, Boulder, Broomfield, Denver, Elbert and 8 more114 min
Jun 9, 8:00 PM MDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBarber, Barton, Clark, Cloud, Comanche, Edwards and 28 more60 min
Jun 9, 8:20 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBarber, Barton, Clark, Comanche, Edwards, Ellis and 21 more5 hr
Jun 9, 9:10 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCClay, Cloud, Graham, Jewell, Marshall, Mitchell and 7 more6 hr
Jun 9, 10:32 PM MDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBarber, Barton, Clark, Comanche, Edwards, Ellis and 17 more118 min
Jun 9, 10:46 PM MDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAtchison, Brown, Clay, Cloud, Doniphan, Jackson and 10 more119 min
Jun 9, 11:15 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAtchison, Brown, Dickinson, Doniphan, Douglas, Geary and 11 more5 hr
Jun 10, 12:20 AM MDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBarber, Barton, Ellis, Ellsworth, Kingman, Lincoln and 8 more55 min
Jun 10, 1:44 AM MDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAtchison, Brown, Doniphan, Douglas, Jackson, Jefferson and 8 more2 hr
Jun 10, 6:07 AM MDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAllen, Bourbon, Cherokee, Crawford, Labette, Linn and 1 more113 min
Jun 10, 11:18 AM MDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAllen, Anderson, Bourbon, Butler, Chase, Chautauqua and 21 more117 min
Jun 10, 11:50 AM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAllen, Anderson, Bourbon, Butler, Chase, Chautauqua and 29 more6 hr
Jun 10, 12:56 PM MDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCChautauqua, Labette, Montgomery2 hr
Jun 10, 4:55 PM MDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAnderson, Barber, Butler, Chase, Coffey, Franklin and 11 more95 min
Jun 9, 6:23 PM MDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAntelope, Boyd, Burt, Cedar, Cuming, Dakota and 7 more2 hr
Jun 9, 7:13 PM MDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBoyd, Holt32 min
Jun 9, 7:52 PM MDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAntelope, Cedar, Cuming, Dakota, Dixon, Knox and 3 more113 min
Jun 9, 7:03 PM MDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBrown, Edmunds, Faulk, Spink57 min
Jun 9, 9:13 PM MDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCLincoln, Minnehaha, Turner, Yankton2 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Colorado, 2003Mesoscale Discussions in Nebraska, 2003Mesoscale Discussions in Wyoming, 2003Every mesoscale discussion in 2003

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.