Alert archive / Illinois / Mesoscale Discussions in 2003

Mesoscale Discussion 12

January 2, 200339 counties in Illinois; 10 counties in Indiana

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jan 2, 2003, 2:21 AM CST for 39 counties in Illinois; 10 counties in Indiana. It was in force for 114 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jan 2, 2003, 2:21 AM CST (08:21 UTC)
Expired
Jan 2, 2003, 4:15 AM CST
In force
114 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
All 49 counties

Bond County, IL, Cass County, IL, Champaign County, IL, Christian County, IL, Clark County, IL, Clay County, IL, Coles County, IL, Crawford County, IL, Cumberland County, IL, DeWitt County, IL, Douglas County, IL, Edgar County, IL, Edwards County, IL, Effingham County, IL, Fayette County, IL, Ford County, IL, Greene County, IL, Jasper County, IL, Jersey County, IL, Lawrence County, IL, Logan County, IL, Macon County, IL, Macoupin County, IL, Madison County, IL, Marion County, IL, Mason County, IL, McLean County, IL, Menard County, IL, Montgomery County, IL, Morgan County, IL, Moultrie County, IL, Piatt County, IL, Richland County, IL, Sangamon County, IL, Scott County, IL, Shelby County, IL, Tazewell County, IL, Vermilion County, IL, Wayne County, IL, Clay County, IN, Fountain County, IN, Montgomery County, IN, Owen County, IN, Parke County, IN, Putnam County, IN, Sullivan County, IN, Vermillion County, IN, Vigo County, IN, Warren County, IN

The nearest sounding before it

Lincoln, IL (KILX), launched 00:00Z, 8.4 hours before the alert went out and 86 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Lincoln, IL at 00:00Z on 2003-01-02Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Lincoln, IL at 00:00Z on 2003-01-02The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 111 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
964 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
42 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
111 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
155 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

202 
ACUS11 KWNS 020821
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 020821 
MOZ000-ILZ000-INZ000-021015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0012
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0221 AM CST THU JAN 02 2003

AREAS AFFECTED...E CNTRL MO...CNTRL IL...CNTRL IND

CONCERNING...PRECIPITATION TRENDS...WINTER PRECIPITATION

VALID 020821Z - 021015Z

SNOW RATES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DIMINISHING ACROSS PARTS OF
THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEY THROUGH DAYBREAK.


STRONGER DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW FIELD NORTHEAST OF CLOSED LOW
TRACKING ACROSS THE OZARKS...WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS INTO CENTRAL INDIANA DURING
THE NEXT 3 TO 6 HOURS.	MODELS ALL SUGGEST THIS FORCING WILL
SLOWLY WEAKEN...ACCOMPANIED BY WEAKENING FRONTOGENETIC FORCING
...WHICH WILL RESULT IN DECREASING TRENDS IN PRECIPITATION RATES
ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND INDIANA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS.	ALTHOUGH ZONE OF MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION RATES IS
STILL EVIDENT IN RADAR REFLECTIVITY LOOPS SHIFTING NORTHEAST/EAST
OF THE ST. LOUIS AREA...DRY LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT OVER THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY SHOULD RESULT IN CONSIDERABLE EVAPORATION/SUBLIMATION
AND LIMIT SNOW TOTALS.

..KERR.. 01/02/2003

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

38699022 39619088 40319033 40548966 40698811 40148671
39468668 38518761 38318843 38608924

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jan 2, 2:17 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBond, Cass, Champaign, Christian, Clark, Clay and 33 more118 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Illinois, 2003Mesoscale Discussions in Indiana, 2003Every mesoscale discussion in 2003

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.