Alert archive / Montana / Mesoscale Discussions in 2003
Mesoscale Discussion 1127
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 26, 2003, 5:10 PM MDT for 15 counties in Montana. It was in force for 2 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- May 26, 2003, 5:10 PM MDT (23:10 UTC)
- Expired
- May 26, 2003, 7:15 PM MDT
- In force
- 2 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
Counties Big Horn County, MT, Custer County, MT, Dawson County, MT, Fallon County, MT, Garfield County, MT, McCone County, MT, Musselshell County, MT, Petroleum County, MT, Powder River County, MT, Prairie County, MT, Richland County, MT, Rosebud County, MT, Treasure County, MT, Wibaux County, MT, Yellowstone County, MT
The radar
The Glasgow radar (KGGW), 182 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 23:14 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Glasgow Intl Airport, MT (KGGW), launched 12:00Z, 11.2 hours before the alert went out and 183 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1390 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 27 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 85 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 196 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- -0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
018 ACUS11 KWNS 262311 SWOMCD SPC MCD 262310 NDZ000-MTZ000-270115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1127 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0610 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2003 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MT/WRN ND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 262310Z - 270115Z CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD STRONG TO SEVERE TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PARTS OF ERN MT AND WRN ND THIS EVENING. A SEVERE TSTM WATCH MAY BE NEEDED OVER THE REGION WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. CURRENT ANALYSIS INDICATED STRONG THERMAL TROUGH SITUATED FROM SERN MT NNEWD ALONG THE MT/ND BORDER. THE LEADING EDGE OF COOLER/DRIER SURFACE AIR INTERSECTED THE TROUGH OVER NERN MT...AND THEN TRAILED SWWD TO SOUTH-CNTRL MT. AIRMASS WITHIN THE TROUGH AXIS AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT HAS BECOME STRONGLY UNSTABLE WITH LATEST MLCAPE ESTIMATED AROUND 1500 J/KG. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ISOLD CELLS CURRENTLY OVER YELLOWSTONE AND TREASURE COUNTIES...IT APPEARS THAT CONVECTION FROM ERN MT INTO ND BORDER AREA MAY BE STRUGGLING AGAINST STRONGER CAP OVER THIS AREA. HOWEVER...FORCING ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND TROUGH...COUPLED WITH CONTINUED HEATING AND FAVORABLY DIFFLUENT MID LEVEL FLOW...SHOULD RESULT IN ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. EXPECT UPSLOPE/POST-FRONTAL FLOW MAY ALSO SUSTAIN STORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SERN MT LATER TONIGHT. ACTIVITY SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY ORGANIZED AS FASTER SWLY MID LEVEL FLOW SPREADS EWD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING. DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND SUSTAINED LIFT ACROSS THE REGION SUGGESTS INCREASING PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL AND HIGH WINDS. ..CARBIN.. 05/26/2003 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BIS...GGW...BYZ...TFX... 46060406 45320566 45450847 47260856 48250650 48190365
SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 26, 2:52 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Carter, Custer, Dawson, Fallon, Powder River, Prairie and 2 more | 83 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Montana, 2003Every mesoscale discussion in 2003
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.