Alert archive / Mississippi / Mesoscale Discussions in 2003

Mesoscale Discussion 112

February 21, 20034 states

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Feb 21, 2003, 5:20 PM CST for 4 states. It was in force for 4 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Feb 21, 2003, 5:20 PM CST (23:20 UTC)
Expired
Feb 21, 2003, 9:15 PM CST
In force
4 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
All 66 counties

Arkansas County, AR, Ashley County, AR, Bradley County, AR, Calhoun County, AR, Chicot County, AR, Cleveland County, AR, Crittenden County, AR, Cross County, AR, Dallas County, AR, Desha County, AR, Drew County, AR, Grant County, AR, Jefferson County, AR, Lee County, AR, Lincoln County, AR, Lonoke County, AR, Monroe County, AR, Ouachita County, AR, Phillips County, AR, Prairie County, AR, St. Francis County, AR, Union County, AR, Claiborne Parish, LA, East Carroll Parish, LA, Franklin Parish, LA, Jackson Parish, LA, Lincoln Parish, LA, Madison Parish, LA, Morehouse Parish, LA, Ouachita Parish, LA, Richland Parish, LA, Union Parish, LA, West Carroll Parish, LA, Benton County, MS, Bolivar County, MS, Calhoun County, MS, Carroll County, MS, Coahoma County, MS, DeSoto County, MS, Grenada County, MS, Holmes County, MS, Humphreys County, MS, Issaquena County, MS, Lafayette County, MS, Leflore County, MS, Marshall County, MS, Montgomery County, MS, Panola County, MS, Pontotoc County, MS, Quitman County, MS, Sharkey County, MS, Sunflower County, MS, Tallahatchie County, MS, Tate County, MS, Tippah County, MS, Tunica County, MS, Union County, MS, Warren County, MS, Washington County, MS, Yalobusha County, MS, Yazoo County, MS, Fayette County, TN, Hardeman County, TN, Haywood County, TN, Shelby County, TN, Tipton County, TN

The radar

The Little Rock radar (KLZK), 173 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 23:22 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Little Rock, AR (KLZK), launched 12:00Z, 11.3 hours before the alert went out and 179 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Little Rock, AR at 12:00Z on 2003-02-21Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Little Rock, AR at 12:00Z on 2003-02-21The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 168 square meters per square second.1939587897117Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
455 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
46 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
168 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
183 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

450 
ACUS11 KWNS 212321
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 212320 
LAZ000-ARZ000-TNZ000-MSZ000-220315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0112
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0520 PM CST FRI FEB 21 2003

AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN MS...SWRN TN...NERN LA...SERN AR

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL 

VALID 212320Z - 220315Z

SCATTERED-NUMEROUS TSTMS WILL SPREAD NEWD FROM W-CENTRAL AND
N-CENTRAL LA...WITH ADDITIONAL CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THIS
REGION THROUGH AT LEAST 4Z.  EXPECT MERGING/TRAINING OF CELLS
WITH PEAK RAIN RATES NEAR 3 INCHES/HOUR AND 1.5-2.5 INCH/HOUR
RATES BEING COMMON.  A FEW TSTMS MAY PRODUCE HAIL/WIND NEAR
SEVERE LIMITS IN THIS TIME FRAME...BUT PRIND GREATER SEVERE
POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN FARTHER S.



SURFACE MESOANALYSIS SHOWS CYCLONE OVER EXTREME SERN TX...WARM
FRONT EWD ACROSS S-CENTRAL LA.	WARM FRONT INTERSECTS RESIDUAL
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INVOF RAPIDES PARISH...WITH INVERTED TROUGH NEWD
ALONG ROUGHLY GLH-MKL LINE.  STRONGEST PRESSURE FALLS REMAIN FROM
JUST NE OF SURFACE CYCLONE INVOF INVERTED TROUGH -- AND N OF
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IN RELATIVELY COOL/STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER AIR. 
THIS...AS WELL AS VWP/PROFILER WINDS...INDICATE INTENSE LOW LEVEL
WAA...ELEVATED ATOP COOL AIR OVER DISCUSSION AREA.  THIS PROCESS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING...DESTABILIZING AIR MASS WITH
ELEVATED MUCAPE INCREASING TO 1500-2500 J/KG RANGE OVER SERN
AR/NWRN MS AND 800-1500 J/KG AS FAR N AS WRN TN BASED ON RUC2
FORECAST SOUNDINGS.  MOISTURE WILL BE QUITE ABUNDANT OVER REGION
WITH PW 1.5-2 INCHES AND GRADUALLY INCREASING.	AFTER
DARK...50-65 KT LLJ WILL FURTHER ENHANCE ELEVATED ASCENT..WITH
RUC 294K-297K ISENTROPIC PROGS INDICATING INCREASING LIFT.

..EDWARDS.. 02/21/2003

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

32089136 32209249 32729308 33819293 34869186 35659029
35588890 34428880 32339063

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Feb 21, 1:43 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAcadia, Allen, Avoyelles, Beauregard, Calcasieu, Cameron and 6 more2 hr
Feb 21, 4:35 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAscension, Assumption, Avoyelles, Concordia, East Baton Rouge, East Feliciana and 16 more115 min
Feb 21, 9:02 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBeauregard, Calcasieu, Cameron, Sabine, Vernon58 min
Feb 21, 9:40 AM CSTTornado WatchSPCAcadia, Allen, Beauregard, Calcasieu, Caldwell, Cameron and 11 more6 hr
Feb 21, 11:47 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAcadia, Allen, Beauregard, Calcasieu, Cameron, Evangeline and 4 more118 min
Feb 21, 3:32 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAllen, Beauregard, Calcasieu, Evangeline, Jefferson Davis, Vernon118 min
Feb 21, 3:40 PM CSTTornado WatchSPCAcadia, Allen, Ascension, Assumption, Avoyelles, Beauregard and 32 more6 hr
Feb 21, 5:50 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAcadia, Allen, Ascension, Assumption, Avoyelles, Beauregard and 32 more115 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Mississippi, 2003Mesoscale Discussions in Arkansas, 2003Mesoscale Discussions in Louisiana, 2003Every mesoscale discussion in 2003

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.