Severe Thunderstorm Warning 6, NWS Salt Lake City, UT

UTAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
400 PM MDT THU MAY 8 2003

.SYNOPSIS...A SERIES OF PACIFIC STORM SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT THE GREAT
BASIN INTO THIS WEEKEND.

.DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING INTO NORTHWEST NEVADA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A GOOD VORT LOBE MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST UTAH. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MORE PREVALENT OVER WESTERN UTAH WITH
SOME DEVELOPMENT OVER THE EAST. SOME OF THESE STORMS ARE QUITE STRONG
WITH THE INITIAL VORT MAX. THE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE TONIGHT AND SWING THROUGH NORTHERN UTAH AND
SOUTHEAST IDAHO AS COLDER AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA. COLDER AIR
FILTERS IN BEHIND THIS WAVE OF PRECIP AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. SNOW
LEVELS WILL LOWER TO NEAR 6000 FEET BY MORNING. JET AXIS SWINGS UP
INTO SOUTHERN UTAH BEHIND THE WAVE AS WELL PROVIDING ADDITIONAL LIFT.
HAVE DECIDED WITH GOOD LIFT FROM THIS WAVE AND JET IN FAVORABLE
POSITION...WILL GO WITH A SNOW ADVISORY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OR
NORTHERN UTAH/SOUTHEAST IDAHO TONIGHT.

THE LOW MOVES INTO WESTERN UTAH BY FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE 500MB COLD
POCKET WORKING ACROSS UTAH THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
REMAIN OVER MUCH OF THE AREA AS THE AIR MASS REMAINS UNSTABLE. THE
LOW WILL LEAVE THE AREA OVERNIGHT FRIDAY WITH SHOWERS DECREASING
FROM THE WEST AS A QUICK RESPITE AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

BROAD TROUGH LEFT OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN RANGE WITH THIS LOW MOVING
THROUGH. AT THE TAIL END OF THIS TROUGH A SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE
THROUGH NORTHERN UTAH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME RIDGING
TO TAKE PLACE SUNDAY AS THE LOW MOVES INTO THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST IN
COMBINATION WITH A LOW DIGGING OFF THE WEST COAST. ISOLATED
VALLEY SHOWERS AND SCATTERED MOUNTAIN SHOWERS COULD REMAIN ACROSS THE
NORTH AS THE AIR MASS DOES NOT WARM ALL THAT MUCH. RIDGE BUILDS A
LITTLE MORE MONDAY AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OFF THE COAST.
IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE LATEST COUPLE RUNS OF THE GFS HAVE WANTED TO
SPLIT THIS LOW RATHER THAN PUSH IT THROUGH AS THE ECMWF WOULD WANT
TO DO WEDNESDAY. LOOKED AT CANADIAN ENSEMBLES AS WELL...AND THINK
THE SYSTEM HAS A TENDENCY TO SPLIT AND WILL TEND FORECAST TO WARMER
AND A BIT DRIER. HOWEVER...STILL THINK AS THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH
WILL SEE SOME MOUNTAIN SHOWERS PREDOMINANTLY. RIDGE BUILDS BACK
THURSDAY.

SLC 8534  CDC 6421  NELSON

.SLC...SNOW ADVISORY NORTHERN UTAH MOUNTAINS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST
       IDAHO THROUGH TONIGHT.

IDZ024-025-UTZ001>021-WYZ021-091300-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
700 AM MDT THU MAY  8 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF
UTAH...EXTREME SOUTHEAST IDAHO AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST WYOMING

.DAY ONE... TODAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN... FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A COLD PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM COULD BRING SIGNIFICANT MOUNTAIN
SNOWFALL TO UTAH TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURE.

WCJIN-WYSW