Tornado Warning 1, NWS San Angelo, TX

WEST CENTRAL TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
200 PM CST SAT APR 5 2003

QUICK UPDATE TO ADD TORNADO WATCH. ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO INCREASE
FROM THE NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN NORTHWARD TO NEAR CHILDRESS.
ACTIVITY SHOULD INCREASE ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY BY 4 PM...WITH MORE
SCATTERED ACTIVITY DEVELOPING SOUTHWARD DOWN THE DRYLINE INTO THE
CONCHO VALLEY EVENTUALLY. MORE IN REGULAR DISCUSSION COMING UP
SHORTLY.

07

MORNING DISCUSSION...

MOISTURE CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO WEST CENTRAL TEXAS THIS MORNING. DEW
POINTS HAD RISEN INTO THE 40S NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20...AND IN THE
50S ELSEWHERE. EVEN MIDLAND HAD A DEW POINT OF 54 F AT 10 AM. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WAS OVER HASKELL AND THROCKMORTON COUNTIES. KTXS SCHOOL
NET INDICATED ENE WINDS AT KNOX CITY...AND EAST WINDS AT HASKELL AND
STAMFORD...ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND 59 F...ABOUT 5 TO 7
DEGREES COOLER THAN ELSEWHERE IN THE BIG COUNTRY.

THE BIG COUNTRY WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN FOR SEVERE WEATHER
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR
TORNADOES.  A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS FROM
ABILENE AND BAIRD...NORTHWARD TO HASKELL AND THROCKMORTON. A VERY
GOOD VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILE WILL EXIST IN THIS AREA NEAR THE WEAK
COLD FRONT. SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. WITH MOISTURE AND DRYLINE POSITION FURTHER WEST
HOWEVER...WILL ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS OVER THE CONCHO VALLEY
AND N EDWARDS PLATEAU THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE IS A SLIGHT
RISK OF SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE REST OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.

04

...245 AM DISCUSSION BELOW...
.CURRENT...WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO SWITCH BACK TO THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. THIS IS RESULTING IN MOISTURE SURGING
BACK TO THE WEST. ALTHOUGH DEWPOINTS HAVE NOT RECOVERED OVER THE
FORECAST AREA YET...60+ DEWPOINTS NOT THAT FAR AWAY. THIS IS
UNDERDONE IN MODEL GUIDANCE AS WELL.

.TODAY...INTERESTING FORECAST SHAPING UP FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. FIRST OF ALL DRYLINE WILL CONTINUE TO RETREAT TO THE WEST
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS RESULTING IN A NICE RECOVERY OF MOISTURE
ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. THE DRYLINE IS THEN FORECAST TO BECOME
STATIONARY ACROSS THE EXTREME WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST THIS
AFTERNOON. IN THE MEAN TIME...A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL WORK SOUTH TO
ABOUT SAN ANGELO AND BROWNWOOD THIS MORNING BEFORE HEADING BACK TO
THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. AREA ALONG AND NORTHEAST
OF THE INTERSECTION (BIG COUNTRY COUNTIES) OF THESE TWO FEATURES
WILL BE VERY FAVORABLE AREA FOR SEVERE WEATHER WITH GOOD INSTABILITY
AND STRONG SHEAR. FURTHER TO THE SOUTH THINGS A LITTLE MORE
UNCERTAIN AS FAR AS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...HOWEVER CAN NOT RULE IT
OUT WITH GOOD INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA AND STRONG CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE DRY LINE. LOOKS LIKE THUNDERSTORM INITIATION WILL BE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON AS MID LEVEL SPEED MAX APPROACHES AND HELPS TO INCREASE
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO OVERCOME WHAT CAP WILL BE LEFT. WILL ALSO
BE RAISING THE POPS TO CHANCE CATEGORY.

TONIGHT...WILL SEE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS
IN THE BIG COUNTRY AND THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES WITH GRADUAL
DIMINISHING TREND AS BEST PARAMETERS MOVE TO THE EAST.

.REST OF FORECAST...OTHER THAN TWEAKING A FEW TEMPERATURES TO LINE
UP WITH SURROUNDING FORECAST GRIDS...MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO THE
FORECAST. HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY MORNING MAY BE COOLER THAN
FORECAST...BUT WITH THE WIDE SWINGS IN GUIDANCE OF LATE WILL
CONTINUE TO HOLD STEADY UNTIL WE SEE SOME CONSISTENCY.

CCF PRELIMS...

ABI 078/056 078/045/072 4510
SJT 080/055 078/044/075 1200
JCT 081/057 080/045/078 2200

.SJT...NONE.

27/BRAZZELL

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-140-
154-155-168>170-062000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
218 PM CST SAT APR 5 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE BIG
COUNTRY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

A VERY WARM AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWEST
ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. MEANWHILE...A DRYLINE ACROSS THE EASTERN
PERMIAN BASIN AND A WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY
WILL FOCUS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN THE LARGE AMOUNT OF SHEAR
PRESENT...ANY STORM THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF
REACHING SEVERE LEVELS AND PRODUCE ISOLATED TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL
...AND DAMAGING WINDS. THE MAIN THREAT OF TORNADOES WILL BE ALONG
AND NORTH OF A SAN ANGELO TO BROWNWOOD LINE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION HAS ALREADY BEEN ACTIVATED.