Alert archive / Texas / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2003

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 80, NWS San Angelo, TX

May 2, 2003San Saba County, Texas

NWS San Angelo, TX issued this severe thunderstorm warning at May 2, 2003, 10:07 PM CDT for San Saba County, Texas. It was in force for 53 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: May 2, 2003, 10:07 PM CDT (03:07 UTC)
Expired: May 2, 2003, 11:00 PM CDT
In force: 53 min
Issued by: NWS San Angelo, TX
Area: Counties, with a storm outline in the text

County San Saba County, TX

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Fort Worth, TX (KFWD), launched 00:00Z, 3.1 hours before the alert went out and 230 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 2747 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -4 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 846 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 61 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 71 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 168 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 3.2
Supercell composite: 12.6

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
WUUS54 KSJT 030307
SVRSJT
TXC411-030400-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1007 PM CDT FRI MAY 2 2003

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN ANGELO HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  SAN SABA COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS

* UNTIL 1100 PM CDT

* AT 1005 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OVER SKEETERVILLE...OR ABOUT 6 MILES NORTHWEST
  OF RICHLAND SPRINGS...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
   RICHLAND SPRINGS AT 1035 PM CDT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...DANGEROUS
LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. FOR YOUR PROTECTION...MOVE TO AN
INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS.

LAT...LON 3122 9906 3128 9864 3143 9891 3144 9909

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS San Angelo, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at May 2, 7:46 PM CDT, 2 hours 21 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, May 2, 7:46 PM CDT, 2 hours 21 minutes before

WEST CENTRAL TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
746 PM CDT FRI MAY 02 2003

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ON WANE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. NOTHING OF
ANY CONSEQUENCE ON LOCAL WARNING RADARS SINCE 645 PM CDT. AS A
RESULT...TORNADO WATCH WILL BE DISCONTINUED...AT LEAST FOR THE SJT
COUNTY WARNING AREA. UPDATE TO FLY SOON.

.SJT...NONE.

17

---------------------------------------------------------------------
317 PM CDT FRI MAY 02 2003

CURRENT...
18Z ANALYSIS SHOWS NUMEROUS BOUNDARIES STRETCH ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS WAVERING ALONG INTERSTATE 20...WHILE
THE DRYLINE IS BULGING INTO THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. ALSO NUMEROUS
SMALLER OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ABOUND SOUTH AND EAST OF THE PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED MAIN BOUNDARIES (LEFTOVERS FROM LAST NIGHT STORMS).
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S NEAR HASKELL AND
THROCKMORTON...TO NEAR 90 SOUTHWEST. DEWPOINTS ARE AROUND 60 WEST
AND NORTH...TO THE UPPER 60S SOUTH AND EAST.

TONIGHT...
WITH NUMEROUS BOUNDARIES STILL LINGERING AND THE DRYLINE PUSHING
EAST ALONG THE COLD FRONT...ABUNDANT MOISTURE SOUTHEAST OF THE MAIN
BOUNDARIES...AND AMPLE INSTABILITY...EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE
WEATHER. VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE
ALL POSSIBLE WITH THE THESE STORMS. WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG
THE COLD FRONT BETWEEN ABILENE AND SAN ANGELO...EXPECT THESE SHOWERS
TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THESE STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST TO EAST THROUGH THE EVENING.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE NORTH OF THE AREA BY MORNING. WITH A STRONG
CAP IN PLACE...AND LACKING A MAJOR BOUNDARY...SHOWERS WILL BE HARDER
TO COME BY. WILL HOLD OFF ON MENTIONING IN THE ZONES FOR NOW...BUT
WILL NOT RULE OUT A FEW DEVELOPING SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. BY
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A STRONG WAVE/WEAK TROUGH LIFTING INTO THE
PLAINS...THIS WILL PUSH A PACIFIC FRONT/DRYLINE THROUGH WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS BY SUNDAY EVENING. THIS WILL HELP TRIGGER A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT SLIGHTLY TO WELL
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS TO CONTINUE.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
WITH DRY WEST DOWNSLOPING WINDS ON MONDAY...EXPECT A WARM SUNNY DAY.
BY TUESDAY ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH LIFTS INTO THE PLAINS. THE GFS IS
INDICATING A MUCH STRONGER FURTHER SOUTH TROUGH SWINGING INTO TEXAS.
HOWEVER GIVEN THE ECMWF...CANADIAN...AND PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...WILL
LEAN TOWARDS PREVIOUS GFS RUNS. THIS WOULD LIFT THE TROUGH INTO THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS WHILE DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. EXPECT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH THE DRYLINE AND COLD FRONT SERVING AS FOCAL POINTS.
A FEW SHOWERS COULD LINGER INTO THURSDAY...DEPENDING ON HOW FAR THE
FRONT CAN PUSH THROUGH. IF THE FRONT HOLDS UP NEAR THE SOUTHERN
COUNTIES AND LIFTS NORTH ON FRIDAY...A SLIGHT CHANCE MAY BE IN ORDER
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...COOLER TEMPS ARE IN ORDER
BEHIND THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT COLD FRONT.

ABI EE 063/094 070/094 062 24221
    BEEBU 088/058 082/058 081/058 081/065 084 2000022200-
SJT EE 068/097 071/097 062 24200
    BEEBB 090/059 086/063 085/059 085/065 086 2000022200-
JCT EE 069/094 069/095 064 242-0
    BEEBE 092/062 087/062 086/062 086/066 086 2000022200-

.SJT...TORNADO WATCH TIL 9 PM FOR ALL OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS EXCEPT
HASKELL AND THROCKMORTON.

24

Hazardous weather outlook, May 2, 2:22 PM CDT, 7 hours 45 minutes before

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-140-
154-155-168>170-031100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
222 PM CDT FRI MAY 2 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY
THE ATMOSPHERE OVER WEST CENTRAL TEXAS WILL BE MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AND SUPPORTIVE OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON.
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INITIALLY DEVELOP NEAR A STATIONARY FRONT THAT
EXTENDS ALONG AND TO THE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20. THIS AREA
INCLUDES THE SOUTHERN BIG COUNTRY... NORTHERN CONCHO VALLEY...AND
THE HEARTLAND. INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER ALL BUT THE WESTERN MOST PORTIONS OF
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH MID EVENING. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
HEARTLAND AND NORTHWEST HILL COUNTRY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL APPROACH WEST CENTRAL TEXAS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...
BRINGING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

14

In the hours before

Local storm report, May 2, 6:48 PM CDT, 3 hours 19 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
0648 PM CDT FRI MAY 02 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0516 PM    3 E BRADY                 TX   WIND DAMAGE
05/02/03   MCCULLOCH                      POWER POLES BLOWN DOWN

0509 PM    1 SW ROCHELLE             TX   1.00 IN HAIL
05/02/03   MCCULLOCH

0506 PM    5 E BRADY                 TX   0.88 IN HAIL
05/02/03   MCCULLOCH

0506 PM    ROCHELLE                  TX   0.88 IN HAIL
05/02/03   MCCULLOCH

0506 PM    5 E BRADY                 TX   60 MPH TSTORM WIND
05/02/03   MCCULLOCH

0458 PM    BRADY                     TX   0.88 IN HAIL
05/02/03   MCCULLOCH

0445 PM    4 NW BRADY                TX   2.75 IN HAIL
05/02/03   MCCULLOCH

0442 PM    BRADY                     TX   0.88 IN HAIL
05/02/03   MCCULLOCH

0438 PM    4 NW BRADY                TX   2.75 IN HAIL
05/02/03   MCCULLOCH

0430 PM    PEAR VALLEY               TX   1.75 IN HAIL
05/02/03   MCCULLOCH

0415 PM    4 N MELVIN                TX   1.00 IN HAIL
05/02/03   MCCULLOCH

0350 PM    DOOLE                     TX   2.75 IN HAIL
05/02/03   CONCHO                         NUMEROUS WINDOWS BLOWN OUT

0325 PM    DOOLE                     TX   0.88 IN HAIL
05/02/03   CONCHO

BRAZZELL

Special weather statement, May 2, 8:03 PM CDT, 2 hours 4 minutes before

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-113-114-127-128-139-140-154-155-
168>170-030135-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
803 PM CDT FRI MAY 2 2003

TORNADO WATCH 209 HAS BEEN CANCELED FOR ALL OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...
INCLUDING ABILENE...SAN ANGELO AND BROWNWOOD.

17

The office that day

Everything else NWS San Angelo, TX issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
May 2, 11:17 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SJT	San Saba	28 min
May 3, 3:10 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SJT	Shackelford	50 min
May 3, 5:50 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SJT	Haskell	60 min
May 3, 6:33 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	SJT	Haskell	57 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Texas, 2003 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2003

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.