Severe Thunderstorm Warning 77, NWS San Angelo, TX

WEST CENTRAL TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
317 PM CDT FRI MAY 02 2003

...ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...

CURRENT...
18Z ANALYSIS SHOWS NUMEROUS BOUNDARIES STRETCH ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS WAVERING ALONG INTERSTATE 20...WHILE
THE DRYLINE IS BULGING INTO THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. ALSO NUMEROUS
SMALLER OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ABOUND SOUTH AND EAST OF THE PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED MAIN BOUNDARIES (LEFTOVERS FROM LAST NIGHT STORMS).
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S NEAR HASKELL AND
THROCKMORTON...TO NEAR 90 SOUTHWEST. DEWPOINTS ARE AROUND 60 WEST
AND NORTH...TO THE UPPER 60S SOUTH AND EAST.

TONIGHT...
WITH NUMEROUS BOUNDARIES STILL LINGERING AND THE DRYLINE PUSHING
EAST ALONG THE COLD FRONT...ABUNDANT MOISTURE SOUTHEAST OF THE MAIN
BOUNDARIES...AND AMPLE INSTABILITY...EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE
WEATHER. VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE
ALL POSSIBLE WITH THE THESE STORMS. WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG
THE COLD FRONT BETWEEN ABILENE AND SAN ANGELO...EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO
RAPIDLY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THESE STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST TO EAST THROUGH THE EVENING.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE NORTH OF THE AREA BY MORNING. WITH A STRONG
CAP IN PLACE...AND LACKING A MAJOR BOUNDARY...SHOWERS WILL BE HARDER
TO COME BY. WILL HOLD OFF ON MENTIONING IN THE ZONES FOR NOW...BUT
WILL NOT RULE OUT A FEW DEVELOPING SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. BY
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A STRONG WAVE/WEAK TROUGH LIFTING INTO THE
PLAINS...THIS WILL PUSH A PACIFIC FRONT/DRYLINE THROUGH WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS BY SUNDAY EVENING. THIS WILL HELP TRIGGER A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT SLIGHTLY TO WELL
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS TO CONTINUE.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
WITH DRY WEST DOWNSLOPING WINDS ON MONDAY...EXPECT A WARM SUNNY DAY.
BY TUESDAY ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH LIFTS INTO THE PLAINS. THE GFS IS
INDICATING A MUCH STRONGER FURTHER SOUTH TROUGH SWINGING INTO TEXAS.
HOWEVER GIVEN THE ECMWF...CANADIAN...AND PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...WILL
LEAN TOWARDS PREVIOUS GFS RUNS. THIS WOULD LIFT THE TROUGH INTO THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS WHILE DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. EXPECT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH THE DRYLINE AND COLD FRONT SERVING AS FOCAL POINTS.
A FEW SHOWERS COULD LINGER INTO THURSDAY...DEPENDING ON HOW FAR THE
FRONT CAN PUSH THROUGH. IF THE FRONT HOLDS UP NEAR THE SOUTHERN
COUNTIES AND LIFTS NORTH ON FRIDAY...A SLIGHT CHANCE MAY BE IN ORDER
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...COOLER TEMPS ARE IN ORDER
BEHIND THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT COLD FRONT.

ABI EE 063/094 070/094 062 24221
    BEEBU 088/058 082/058 081/058 081/065 084 2000022200-
SJT EE 068/097 071/097 062 24200
    BEEBB 090/059 086/063 085/059 085/065 086 2000022200-
JCT EE 069/094 069/095 064 242-0
    BEEBE 092/062 087/062 086/062 086/066 086 2000022200-

.SJT...TORNADO WATCH TIL 9 PM FOR ALL OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS EXCEPT
HASKELL AND THROCKMORTON.

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TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-140-
154-155-168>170-031100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
222 PM CDT FRI MAY 2 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY
THE ATMOSPHERE OVER WEST CENTRAL TEXAS WILL BE MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AND SUPPORTIVE OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON.
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INITIALLY DEVELOP NEAR A STATIONARY FRONT THAT
EXTENDS ALONG AND TO THE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20. THIS AREA
INCLUDES THE SOUTHERN BIG COUNTRY... NORTHERN CONCHO VALLEY...AND
THE HEARTLAND. INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER ALL BUT THE WESTERN MOST PORTIONS OF
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH MID EVENING. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
HEARTLAND AND NORTHWEST HILL COUNTRY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL APPROACH WEST CENTRAL TEXAS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...
BRINGING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

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