Severe Thunderstorm Warning 39, NWS San Angelo, TX

WEST CENTRAL TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
613 PM CDT MON APR 28 2003

NEW WATCH TO BE ISSUED SHORTLY FOR PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.
THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF MIDLAND AND BIG SPRING EXPECTED TO BUILD
SOUTHEAST TOWARD BETTER INSTABILITY AXIS ACROSS THE WESTERN BIG
COUNTRY AND CONCHO VALLEY. PER LAPS...CAPES RUNNING AROUND 2000 J/KG
FROM OZONA TO SAN ANGELO. LOOK FOR WATCH DETAILS AND ZONE UPDATE
SHORTLY.

17

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315 PM CDT MON APR 28 2003

CURRENT...
20Z ANALYSIS SHOWS ISOLATED STORMS WERE DEVELOPING ALONG THE DRYLINE
FROM WEST OF LUBBOCK TO NEAR ALPINE. OTHERWISE...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
COVERED WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE LOWER TO MID
80S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO AROUND 60 SOUTH.

TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
A FEW OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH DEVELOP ALONG THE
DRYLINE TO THE WEST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING...WILL DRIFT INTO THE
WESTERN COUNTIES. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE BRINGING
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. OTHERWISE...THE DRYLINE WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE EAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WITH WEAK
IMPULSES RIDING THROUGH THE NEARLY ZONAL FLOW...THIS WILL HELP
TRIGGER OFF A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BY TUESDAY
EVENING...WITH THE DRYLINE CENTERED ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS THERE
WILL BE A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. WEDNESDAY THE
DRYLINE WAVERS TO THE EAST...THEREFORE THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS ALSO
MOVES EAST. THURSDAY THE DRYLINE WAVERS BACK TO THE WEST SLIGHTLY
INTO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. THIS WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR A
FEW SHOWERS.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHING IN FROM THE NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS DEVELOPS. WITH LITTLE UPPER
SUPPORT TO PUSH THE FRONT THROUGH...IT WILL CONTINUE TO HANG UP
ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH SATURDAY...THUS CONTINUING THE
SCATTERED STORMS. BY SATURDAY NIGHT THE FRONT FINALLY RETREATS NORTH
OF THE AREA. SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN
STREAM COMBINE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL PULL AN UPPER
TROUGH THROUGH ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...THUS PUSHING A PACIFIC FRONT
ACROSS THE AREA. THEREFORE EXPECT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY BEFORE DRYING OUT ON MONDAY.

CCF PRELIMS..

ABI 063/085 062/090 060 24223
SJT 065/085 064/090 061 24223
JCT 063/083 062/088 063 24234=

.SJT...NONE.

24/HOLGUIN

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-140-
154-155-168>170-291915-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
220 PM CDT MON APR 28 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...

A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CLOUD COVER HAS KEPT
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND 80S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH
MID AFTERNOON...BUT AS THE CLOUD DECREASES BY LATE AFTERNOON...
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO CLIMB AND THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME MORE
UNSTABLE. BY EARLY EVENING...A DRYLINE WILL BECOME BETTER
ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN AND SOUTH PLAINS...WITH A FEW
STORMS LIKELY DEVELOPING ALONG THE DRYLINE AND PUSHING EAST INTO
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. ONE OR TWO OF THESE STORMS MAY BRIEFLY REACH
SEVERE LEVELS...PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. AS
TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO COOL BY LATE EVENING...THE THREAT OF SEVERE
WEATHER WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH
MUCH OF THE NEXT WEEK. THE DRYLINE WILL SHARPEN AND PUSH EAST EACH
AFTERNOON...WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

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