Severe Thunderstorm Warning 32, NWS San Angelo, TX

WEST CENTRAL TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
540 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2003

.CURRENT...SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE TRANSPECOS REGION
IS INITIATING HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM COLORADO
CITY TO MIDLAND. AND ACROSS THE PECOS RIVER VALLEY.

.FORECAST...UPDATED FORECAST ALREADY SENT TO ADD ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE BIG COUNTRY. WITH SUCH A
DRY ATMOSPHERE...MAY NOT SEE MUCH RAIN HITING THE GROUND SO ONLY 10
POPS WARRENTED. ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMISH WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME MIXING
AROUND 9 PM.

27/BRAZZELL

....PREVIOUS DISCUSSION........................................

ANOTHER WARM DAY ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...WITH TEMPS HITTING 90
IN MOST LOCATIONS. VAD WIND PROFILES OFF AREA RADARS SHOWED 55 TO 60
KNOTS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE THIS MORNING...WITH THESE GUSTY WINDS
MIXING DOWN THROUGH THE DAY. MIXING ALSO HAVING AN EFFECT ON
DEWPOINTS... WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPING DOWN INTO THE 40S.

FOR TONIGHT...BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRYING TO MAKE UP THE RIO
GRANDE INTO THE TRANS PECOS AREA. COMBINATION OF BETTER MOISTURE
...APPROACH OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE...AND UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD BE ENOUGH
TO GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA. QUESTION
IS HOW FAR NORTHEAST THEY WILL COME BEFORE RUNNING INTO THE DRIER
AIR. AT THIS POINT...WILL KEEP THE FIRST PERIOD DRY FOR NOW EXCEPT
FOR A FEW SOUTHWEST COUNTIES.

UPPER TROUGH TO REMAIN PARKED ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS...WITH SEVERAL ILL TIMED SHORTWAVES TO RACE ACROSS THE
AREA. BEST WAVE APPEARS TO APPROACH MONDAY EVENING AND WITH DECENT
INSTABILITY ALONG AND EAST OF THE DRYLINE...STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
PARTS OF THE PERMIAN BASIN AND SOUTH PLAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
THEN MOVING INTO WEST CENTRAL TEXAS LOOKS POSSIBLE. WILL CONTINUE
THE CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY NIGHT FOR NOW.

MODELS DO TRY TO DRY THE LOWER LEVELS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS
A SURFACE LOW PULLS EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WITH THE MODELS
CONTINUING TO BE ALL OVER THE PLACE...NOT MUCH CONFIDENCE IN ANY
PARTICULAR SCENARIO. WILL KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCE ALREADY MENTIONED
FOR NOW AND SEE IF SOME MODEL CONSISTENCY CAN BE DEVELOPED BEFORE
YANKING POPS FOR ANY PARTICULAR DAY.

CCF PRELIMS..

ABI 065/088/060/083 -232
SJT 065/088/060/083 1232
JCT 065/085/060/083 -222

.SJT...NONE.

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-140-
154-155-168>170-281030-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
230 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE DRYLINE
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. ON MONDAY...A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY
BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN CONCERN.
THE BEST CHANCES FOR A SEVERE STORM ON MONDAY WILL BE WEST OF A LINE
FROM SONORA...TO SAN ANGELO AND THROCKMORTON.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

26