Severe Thunderstorm Warning 182, NWS San Angelo, TX

WEST CENTRAL TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
848 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2003

ZONE FORECAST WAS UPDATED EARLIER TO INCLUDE MENTION OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR FISHER AND NOLAN COUNTIES. POPS OVER THE BIG
COUNTRY WERE BUMPED UP WITH THE ZONE UPDATE...PER RADAR TRENDS.

LATEST KLBB RADAR SHOWS A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
SOUTH PLAINS...JUST NORTH OF KLBB. WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH WERE
REPORTED BY THE SOUTH PLAINS MESONET.

FOR WC TX...EXPECT VERY SIMILAR SCENARIO TO LAST NIGHT. HOWEVER...
EXPECT A WEAKER LOW LEVEL JET...GIVEN PROXIMITY OF 850 MB LOW OVER
EC TX...ASSOCIATED WITH LAST NIGHTS CONVECTIVE COMPLEX. RUC PROGS
850MB INFLOW AROUND 10KTS...COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT/S 35KT 850MB
INFLOW. KSJT VAD WIND PROFILER BEARING THIS OUT THUS FAR.

NOTE CONCERNING MISSING KDYX /DYESS AFB RADAR/...RDA/RPG COMMS WERE
LOST AT MID AFTERNOON. TELCO TECHS WERE NOTIFIED AND ARE WORKING ON
THE PROBLEM. NO UPDATE HAS BEEN GIVEN ON ESTIMATED TIME OF RETURN TO
SERVICE.

WILL LET CURRENT FORECAST RIDE WITH NO CHANGES PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

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225 PM DISCUSSION...

.CURRENT...LOTS OF STUFF GOING ON TODAY. PREVIOUS MCS AND
ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW HAS PUSHED TO THE TEXAS COAST EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE ATMOSPHERE HAS BEEN WORKED OVER PRETTY GOOD ACROSS
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COUNTIES. HOWEVER...WITH THE APPROACH OF
NEXT UPSTREAM SYSTEM AND FALLING PRESSURES IN THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES...STARTING TO SEE WINDS TURN BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
MOISTURE BEGIN TO RETURN UP THE RIO-GRANDE INTO WEST TEXAS.
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX ALREADY FORMED IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND
NORTHERN NEW MEXICO.

TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...WILL TAKE A LITTLE WHILE LONGER FOR THE
ATMOSPHERE TO RECOVER...HOWEVER WILL DO SO QUICKLY ONCE WINDS COME
AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP TO
THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE AREA AND PROPAGATE INTO THE REGION.
THE TRICKY AREA WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES. WITH THE
ATMOSPHERE STABILIZED BIG TIME...AND WITH NORTHEAST WINDS GOING TO
CONTINUE ACROSS THIS AREA...STORMS MAY NOT BE AS BAD HERE...HOWEVER
WILL INCLUDE IN THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH DUE TO THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN
THIS AREA. AREAS TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF A LINE FROM ABILENE TO
BROWNWOOD LOOK TO BE A LOCK FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY
RAIN...AS LOW LEVEL JET FORMS LATE THIS EVENING AND THUNDERSTORMS
BEGIN TO DIVE TO THE SOUTH. ALSO WILL LIKELY SEE DEVELOPMENT ON THE
WESTERN FLANK. BOTH THE AVN AND ETA SHOW A NEARLY STATIONARY 850MB
BOUNDARY SETTING UP OVER NIGHT FROM STERLING CITY TO JUNCTION. THIS
FEATURE SHOULD ALSO HELP TO FOCUS IN THIS AREA AS WELL. WILL ALSO
SEE BETTER SHEAR BOTH DIRECTIONAL AND SPEED WISE TONIGHT THAN LAST
TWO EVENTS. SO EXPECT TO SEE SOME SUPERCELLS DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO
THE AREA WITH LARGE AND DAMAGING WINDS...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE A TORNADO OR TWO AS WELL. AS EVENING WEARS ON...WILL SEE
THUNDERSTORMS TRANSFORM INTO A LINE WITH LEWPS AND BOWS AS PREVIOUS
NIGHTS WITH SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHIFTING TO DAMAGING WINDS AND
HEAVY RAIN. EXPECT ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP OR ENTER THE FORECAST AREA
AROUND 9 PM AND CONTINUE WELL INTO THE NIGHT. ALL ACTIVITY SHOULD
SHIFT OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY NOON FRIDAY...HOWEVER WILL
CONTINUE WITH TOKEN POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES INTO THE
AFTERNOON JUST IN CASE TIMING IS OFF. EXPECT FRONTAL PASSAGE AFTER
MIDNIGHT INTO EARLY MORNING.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
WITH THE WINDS SHIFTING BACK TO THE SOUTH ON SATURDAY...MOISTURE
WILL BEGIN TO RETURN AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT. THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
WHICH POOLS UP AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAST THE
FRONT REACHES THE FORECAST AREA. WITH A QUICKER FRONT AS THE ETA IS
SHOWING...PERHAPS NOT AS MUCH POOLING. HOWEVER WITH THE AVN HANDLING
THE NORTHWEST FLOW BETTER THAN THE ETA...WILL LEAN CLOSER TO THE AVN
SOLUTION WHICH IS 10 TO 12 HOURS SLOWER. THEREFORE EXPECT A LINE OF
STORMS ALONG THE FRONT...SATURDAY NIGHT NORTH AND INTO SUNDAY
MORNING SOUTH. A FEW SHOWERS LINGER INTO THE EVENING. THEN ON MONDAY
THE FRONT RETURNS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS
FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TRIES THE BUILD INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER THIS
FEATURE IS SOMEWHAT DIMINISHED AND SLIGHTLY FURTHER WEST THAN
PREVIOUS RUNS. DEPENDING HOW MUCH THE RIDGE ACTUALLY BUILDS
IN...WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH OF A RETURN TO THE NORMAL HOT AND DRY
CONDITIONS FOR WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN TO
HOT AND DRY...BUT SLIGHTLY DIMINISHED BY FRIDAY.

PRELIMINARY CCF
ABI 064/081/061/087 7501
SJT 066/084/062/087 750-
JCT 069/085/063/088 650-

.SJT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH TIL 12 PM CDT TUESDAY ALL WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS.

27/BRAZZELL
24/HOLGUIN

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-140-
154-155-168>170-060000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
312 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHEAST NEW
MEXICO AND THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE DURING THE AFTERNOON...WILL MOVE
SOUTH DURING THE EVENING. OTHER THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN
EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND MOVE EAST. THESE AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
MERGE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS TONIGHT. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS. HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO FALL
ON ALREADY SATURATED SOILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE LIKELY TONIGHT.

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