Severe Thunderstorm Warning 107, NWS San Angelo, TX

WEST CENTRAL TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
323 PM CDT MON MAY 19 2003

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS STRETCHING FROM MEXICO...ACROSS TEXAS. ON
THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT IS PUSHING THROUGH THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND
OKLAHOMA. MEANWHILE A PREFRONTAL TROUGH IS PUSHING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST...EXTENDING FROM NEAR HASKELL TO WESTERN CROCKETT COUNTY.
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID 90S NORTH TO AROUND 100 ELSEWHERE ACROSS
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 50S AND 60S. ALSO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FIRING UP ALONG THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH
FROM SWEETWATER AND ROTAN...TO HASKELL AND ALBANY.

TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...
SUSPECT THE CURRENT STORMS ARE QUITE ELEVATED ABOVE THE CAP...SEEING
HOW THEY ARE STRUGGLING TO GET GOING. HOWEVER WITH THE SHORTWAVE
PUSHING IN FROM NEW MEXICO. EXPECT BETTER ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP THIS
EVENING...BOTH ALONG THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH AND LATER WITH THE ACTUAL
COLD FRONT. GIVEN THE INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...EXPECT A FEW
OF THESE STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
THE MAIN CONCERN. ALONG AND BEHIND THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT THE CAP
WEAKENS CONSIDERABLY. WITH THE BEST MOISTURE EAST...EXPECT SCATTERED
SHOWERS TO SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL MOST LIKELY BE DELAYED UNTIL MORNING FOR
THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...
THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO SINK SOUTH ALLOWING A FEW DISTURBANCES TO
RIDE OVER THE RIDGE AND THROUGH NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. THIS
COMBINED WITH OVERRUNNING MOISTURE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR
SCATTERED ACTIVITY ON WEDNESDAY...BEFORE GRADUALLY DISSIPATING BY
THURSDAY MORNING.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
THE RIDGE IS SLOWER (THAN PREVIOUS THINKING) TO BUILD BACK IN
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WITH A COUPLE OF WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHWEST FLOW...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE POSSIBILITY OF
SHOWERS. THEREFORE WILL INTRODUCE THE MENTION OF SHOWERS FOR
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH ON THE WEAK SIDE.

ABI 058/071/054/075/057 4323
SJT 061/073/054/077/060 3223
JCT 066/076/057/078/056 2323

.SJT...NONE.

24

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