Severe Thunderstorm Warning 10, NWS San Angelo, TX

WEST CENTRAL TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
920 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2003

EVENING WEATHER UNFOLDING AS EXPECTED. KSJT RADAR SHOWS
STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTHWEST OF DEL RIO. FURTHER WEST...
THUNDERSTORMS WERE INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY NW OF
MIDLAND.

EXPECT COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THUNDERSTORMS TO INCREASE WITH
APPROACH OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF SOUTH OF NM. SEE LATEST SPC
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION FOR MORE INFO.

FORECAST WAS RECENTLY UPDATED TO MENTION SEVERE THREAT FOR THE
CONCHO VALLEY AND N EDWARDS PLATEAU. MINOR CHANGES MADE TO TEMPS AS
WELL.

14

--------------------
315 PM DISCUSSION...

CURRENT...LATEST SURFACE MAP INDICATES THAT THE DRYLINE IS SET UP
FROM NEAR STERLING CITY TO JUST WEST OF SWEET WATER AT 1 PM. OUT
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...DEW POINTS WERE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.
SATELLITE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A PLUM OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SUB TROPICAL JET MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. DESPITE THE
HIGH CLOUDS...CLOUDS ARE PRETTY THIN AND INSOLATION IS STILL PRETTY
GOOD HERE AT THE OFFICE.

.TONIGHT...STILL CONCERNED ABOUT WHAT THE DRYLINE IS GOING TO DO
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. LOOKS LIKE THE DRYLINE IS BECOMING A LITTLE
MORE SHARP ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. NORTH OF THE CIRRUS SHIELD
COULD SEE A FEW ISOLATED STORMS FIRE UP ALONG THE DRYLINE WHERE
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE COMBINED WITH AFTERNOON HEATING MAY
WEAKEN THE CAP ENOUGH. STILL THINK THE MAIN SHOW WILL BE MID TO LATE
EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS GOOD MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX
APPROACHES THE AREA...DRYLINE WILL SURGE BACK TO THE WEST THROUGH
MUCH OF THE EVENING HOURS. CAP WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN ACROSS THE
NORTH...BUT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE TOUGH TO BREAK THE CAP ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN COUNTIES. GIVEN THE HIGH SHEAR VALUES...LOOK FOR SUPERCELLS
THAT WILL PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. TORNADO THREAT
LOOKS LOW GIVEN THE HIGH LCL VALUES. WILL GO WITH THE HIGHEST POPS
ACROSS THE NORTH AND WORD SOME POSSIBLY SEVERE AND LEAVE SOUTH WITH
ONLY 10 POPS.

.SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME ACTIVITY ONGOING AT THE
START OF THE DAY ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN ZONES...EXPECT THE DRYLINE
TO SURGE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY IN THE DAY. IN ITS WAKE...STRONG
WEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH POSSIBLY HIGHER WILL DRY OUT THE
ATMOSPHERE SUBSTANTIALLY. WITH SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENT POSSIBLE
NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

.SUNDAY-MONDAY...THINGS LOOK TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
TEMPERATURES RIGHT ABOUT WHERE THEY SHOULD BE.

.TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...WILL SEE OUR NEXT CHANCES FOR RAIN SET UP DURING
THIS TIME AS ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA AND
DRYLINE ONCE AGAIN GETS SET UP. BEST CHANCES NOW APPEAR TO BE ON
TUESDAY...BUT WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE INTO WEDNESDAY.

CCF PRELIMS...

ABI 062/082 051/075 049 4200
SJT 062/083 050/079 049 2100
JCT 065/085 049/082 053 1100

.SJT...NONE.

27/BRAZZELL

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-140-
154-155-168>170-191900-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
201 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.

.THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS THIS EVENING INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...MAINLY
NORTHWEST OF A BROWNWOOD TO BRADY TO JUNCTION LINE. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE...THE DRYLINE IS POISED JUST TO
OUR WEST AND A BURST OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA AFTER SUNSET.  THIS COULD SET THE STAGE FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. SOME STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF REACHING SEVERE
LEVELS...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER COULD DEVELOP AROUND OR AFTER SUNSET.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED MAINLY AFTER DARK...LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.