Flash Flood Warning 9, NWS San Angelo, TX

000 
WGUS74 KSJT 260535
FFSSJT
TXC413-260630-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1232 AM CDT MON MAY 26 2003

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SCHLEICHER COUNTY 
UNTIL 130 AM CDT...

AT 1230 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATED THAT 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN 
HAVE FALLEN AT SCATTERED LOCATIONS ACROSS SCHLEICHER COUNTY...WITH
ISOLATED 4 TO 5 INCH AMOUNTS JUST SOUTHEAST OF ELDORADO. THE STORMS
WITH THE HEAVIEST RAIN HAVE MOVED EASTWARD OUT OF SCHLEICHER 
COUNTY. OTHER STORMS WITH MODERATE RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 130
AM. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IS EXPECTED. 

DO NOT DRIVE INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD. THE WATER DEPTH 
MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW SAFE PASSAGE. REMEMBER...MOST FLASH FLOOD 
DEATHS OCCUR IN VEHICLES.

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODS AND FLASH FLOODS. IF FLASH FLOODING IS OBSERVED...
ACT QUICKLY. MOVE UP TO HIGHER GROUND TO ESCAPE FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT
STAY IN AREAS SUBJECT TO FLOODING WHEN WATER BEGINS RISING.

$$

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WEST CENTRAL TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
930 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2003

RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW DEVELOPING MCS IN OUR SOUTHWESTERN
COUNTIES. THIS IN AREA OF QUITE STRONG MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE
AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX MOVING SLOWLY
EAST AND NORTHEAST...BUT LIKELY TO STALL AS IT PUSHES INTO
SOUTHERN CONCHO VALLEY. VERY HEAVY RAINFALL OF 1-2.5 INCHES PER
HOUR OCCURRING WITH THE CONVECTION. WILL ISSUE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR
NORTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND SOUTHERN CONCHO VALLEY REST OF
TONIGHT. WILL CLOSELY MONITOR AREAS FARTHER EAST FOR FLASH FLOOD
POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT.

19

200 PM DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT...
MODELS HAVING TROUBLE WITH SFC FEATURES AND APPROACHING UPPER TROF.
AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY STRADDLED I20 ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY.   THE
AIRMASS SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY HAS CONTINUED TO SLOWLY DESTABILIZE.
THE SFC BASED CAPES WERE RISING INTO THE 1000 TO 1500 J/KG RANGE.
ALSO...AN AREA OF DIFFLUENCE WAS MOVING INTO THE BIG BEND AREA AND
WILL LIKELY MOVE ACROSS THE CONCHO ALLEY LATER TONIGHT.  SPC MESO
ANALYSIS SHOWS THIS DIVERGENCE AT 3H.  AT THE SFC...A WEAK SFC TROF
APPEARS TO REFLECT THIS DIFFLUENCE/DIVERGENCE EXTENDING FROM BWD TO
SJT TO FST TO A SFC LOW BETWEEN ELP AND MAF.  EXPECT THE UPPER TROF
TO CONTINUE TO UNDERCUT THE UPPER RIDGE AS IT MOVES ESE.
EXPECT...CONVECTION DEVELOPING TO OUR WEST TO GRADUALLY SPREAD EAST
TONIGHT AS A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM.  ALSO...ANY CONVECTION
THAT DEVELOPS ALONG FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SOUTH.  AS
UPPER TROF APPROACHES SHOULD SEE BETTER LOW LEVEL JET.  WENT W/60
POPS FOR MUCH OF WC TX TONIGHT...AND WILL ADD MENTION OF LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL BECAUSE OF SLOW STORM MOVEMENT.

MEMORIAL DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
EXPECT FRONT TO SAG A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH AND GO STATIONARY.
AS IT DOES...MODELS PROG AN AREA OF DIFFLUENCE ALONG THE STATIONARY
FRONT ACROSS THE TRANS PECOS REGION.  THIS COULD GIVE US ADDITIONAL
CHANCES OF RAINFALL.  THINGS SHOULD BEGIN DRYING OUT ON
WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH CANT RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED TSTORMS SINCE WE
CONTINUE TO BE IN NW FLOW ALOFT.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
UPPER HIGH IS PROGGED BY ALL LONG RANGE MODELS TO BUILD INTO WC TX
AND SHOULD HELP TO DRY US OUT.

SUNDAY...
WENT AHEAD AND INSERTED A LOW POP AS MODELS PROG A WEAK UPPER TROF
INTO WC TX.  ALSO...LEE SIDE TROFING DEVELOPS BENEATH STRONGER ZONAL
FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.  COULD MEAN THE RETURN OF THE
DRYLINE.

CCF PRELIMS...

ABI 057/076/058/079 6322
SJT 061/078/060/081 6433
JCT 062/083/063/082 6433

.SJT...NONE.

GUERRERO/WRIGHT/BACKER

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-140-
154-155-168>170-261930-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
230 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...

A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER EXISTS THROUGH TONIGHT FOR AREAS
SOUTH OF THE BIG COUNTRY. A COMPLEX OF STORMS IS DEVELOPING ACROSS
FAR WEST TEXAS AND INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON IN
ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NOW ENTERING FAR
WEST TEXAS. AS THIS COMPLEX OF STORMS APPROACHES OUR CWA LATER THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT... A FEW OF STORMS COULD REACH SEVERE LIMITS
WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE MAIN CONCERN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

WITH A FRONT MOVING THROUGH AND THEN STALLING OUT ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS...THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. OTHERWISE...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY TONIGHT.

15

TXZ064>066-071>073-076>078-139-140-154-155-168>170-260401-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
956 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2003

...STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN HEADED FOR SAN ANGELO...
CHRISTOVAL...AND MERTZON...

AT 955 PM CDT...RADAR SHOWED THE LEADING EDGE OF
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAIN AND
STRONG WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO 50 MPH LOCATED FROM MERTZON
TO CHRISTOVAL...OR ABOUT 15 MILES SOUTH OF SAN ANGELO.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF THE CONCHO VALLEY AND
EDWARDS PLATEAU.

REMEMBER MOST FLASH FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR AT NIGHT.  IF YOU
ENCOUNTER A FLOODED LOW WATER CROSSING...TURN AROUND DONT DROWN.

GUERRERO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1129 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

1005 PM    OZONA                     TX   WIND DAMAGE
05/25/03   CROCKETT                       POWER POLES DOWNED

0821 PM    WALL                      TX   FLASH FLOOD
05/25/03   TOM GREEN

0810 PM    5 NE SAN ANGELO           TX   0.88 IN HAIL
05/25/03   TOM GREEN

0810 PM    15 S OZONA                TX   FLASH FLOOD
05/25/03   CROCKETT                       FLOODING AT PANDALE ROAD
                                          AND HOWARD DRAW

17