Alert archive / Texas / Flash Flood Warnings in 2003

Flash Flood Warning 82, NWS San Angelo, TX

September 25, 2003McCulloch County, Texas

NWS San Angelo, TX issued this flash flood warning at Sep 25, 2003, 5:30 PM CDT for McCulloch County, Texas. It was in force for 3 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Sep 25, 2003, 5:30 PM CDT (22:30 UTC)
Expired
Sep 25, 2003, 8:30 PM CDT
In force
3 hr
Issued by
NWS San Angelo, TX
Area
Counties, with a storm outline in the text

County McCulloch County, TX

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this flash flood warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Del Rio, TX (KDRT), launched 12:00Z, 10.5 hours before the alert went out and 252 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Del Rio, TX at 12:00Z on 2003-09-25Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 815 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Del Rio, TX at 12:00Z on 2003-09-25The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 43 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
815 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-74 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
613 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
28 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
43 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
59 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.1
Supercell composite
0.4

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
WGUS54 KSJT 252231
FFWSJT
TXC307-260130-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
530 PM CDT THU SEP 25 2003

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN ANGELO HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
  MCCULLOCH COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL TEXAS

* UNTIL 830 PM CDT

* AT 525 PM CDT...WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED            
  THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN EXTENDING FROM IVIE RESERVOIR   
  TO MENARD...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

* THE THUNDERSTORM WITH EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL BE NEAR...
   LOHN AT 545 PM CDT
   BRADY AT 550 PM CDT
   ROCHELLE...PLACID AT 600 PM CDT

* RAINFALL TOTALING 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL FALL ACROSS MUCH OF MCCULLOCH 
  COUNTY THROUGH 830 PM. STREAMS AND CREEKS WILL FILL WITH SWIFTLY   
  FLOWING FLOODWATER...INUNDATING LOW WATER CROSSINGS ACROSS THE     
  COUNTY. LOW LYING STREETS IN BRADY MAY ALSO BECOME IMPASSABLE.

TURN AROUND DONT DROWN DO NOT DRIVE INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS
THE ROAD. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW SAFE PASSAGE.
REMEMBER...MOST FLASH FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN VEHICLES.

LAT...LON 3141 9951 3104 9956 3101 9914 3140 9916

$$

07
1 follow-up statement
000 
WGUS74 KSJT 260022
FFSSJT
TXC307-260130-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
725 PM CDT THU SEP 25 2003

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MCCULLOCH COUNTY UNTIL
830 PM CDT...

AT 7 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATED THAT 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN HAS 
FALLEN OVER THE WARNED AREA IN THE LAST HOUR.  LIGHTER AMOUNTS OF RAIN 
ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 30 MINUTES AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES EAST 
OUT OF THE COUNTY.  RUNOFF FROM THIS STORM WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF 
SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS...COUNTRY ROADS WITH LOW WATER 
CROSSINGS...NORMALLY DRY DRAWS...AS WELL AS FARMLAND ALONG THE BANKS 
OF CREEKS AND STREAMS. DO NOT DRIVE ACROSS AREAS WHERE WATER OF 
UNKNOWN DEPTH COVERS THE ROAD.

THE TEXAS DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION HAS INDICATED WATER IS 
COVERING PORTIONS OF FARM TO MARKET ROADS...503...504...714 AND 1028 
IN MCCULLOCH COUNTY. 

MOST DEATHS IN FLASH FLOODING OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO
CROSS BRIDGES...DIPS...OR LOW SPOTS IF WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY.

$$
JOHNSON

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this flash flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS San Angelo, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood warning went out at Sep 25, 3:59 PM CDT, 1 hour 31 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Sep 25, 3:59 PM CDT, 1 hour 31 minutes before
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
359 PM CDT THU SEP 25 2003

DECIDED TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR TONIGHT...FOR THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. MAIN AREA OF CONCERN IS FROM ABILENE...
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE HEARTLAND AND NW HILL COUNTRY THIS EVENING.

14

RATHER ACTIVE WEATHER OVER WC TX THIS AFTERNOON...WITH AN MCS MOVING
THROUGH THE HEART OF THE FORECAST AREA. A MESOSCALE LOW MAY BE
FORMING JUST SOUTH OF SWEETWATER...WHICH WILL AID HEAVY RAIN CHANCES
FROM ABILENE...SOUTHEAST TO NEAR COLEMAN IN THE NEXT TWO HOURS.
ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...OVERALL SYSTEM
MOVEMENT APPEARS SUFFICIENT TO DIMINISH WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOOD
THREAT.

TODAY/S RAIN FORMED IN A LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RIDGE EXTENDING
UP THE RIO GRANDE...INTO THE PERMIAN BASIN AND WC TX. IN ADDITION...
THE THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR TO BE AIDED BY DIVERGENCE ALOFT...
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEFT FRONT QUAD OF THE 250MB JET UNDERCUTTING A
WEAK UPPER SHEAR AXIS FROM NM...INTO THE PERMIAN BASIN. THE UPPER
SHEAR AXIS/DEVELOPING OPEN SHORTWAVE TROF EXPECTED TO DROP TO THE
PERMIAN BASIN TONIGHT...AND TO THE MID RIO GRANDE VALLEY BY TOMORROW
EVENING. WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS PRIMARILY SOUTH OF I-10 THROUGH
TOMORROW...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE INTO THE CONCHO VALLEY AND
HEARTLAND.

SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR OVER NW TX WILL HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME MAKING IT
INTO WC TX UNTIL A POSSIBLE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY SATURDAY. THIS
FRONT WOULD BE OF PACIFIC ORIGIN...FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY SOUTHERLY
SURFACE RETURN FLOW AND ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE THROUGH
THE MID PART OF NEXT WEEK.

GFS BRINGS A RATHER STRONG COLD FRONT TO WC TX NEAR OR JUST AFTER
THE LAST PERIOD OF THE NEW 7-DAY FORECAST. THE ASSOCIATED AIRMASS
APPEARS TO ORIGINATE IN WESTERN CANADA. WE WILL SEE...AS RUN-TO-RUN
VARIABILITY OF THE MEDIUM RANGE GFS HAS BEEN HIGH AS OF LATE.

PRELIMS...
ABI 063/087/065/083 41--
SJT 064/086/064/084 41--
JCT 063/084/063/085 7311

.SJT...FFA TONIGHT FOR ZONES ZONES
TXZ066-072-073-077-078-098-099-113-114-
127-128-139-140-154-155-168>170.

14
Hazardous weather outlook, Sep 25, 2:17 PM CDT, 3 hours 13 minutes before
TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-140-
154-155-168>170-261915-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
217 PM CDT THU SEP 25 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAIN WILL
ACCOMPANY THE STORMS...AND THE HEAVY RAIN COULD CAUSED LOCALIZED
MINOR FLOODING. WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGER STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

19

The office that day

Everything else NWS San Angelo, TX issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Sep 25, 4:01 PM CDTFlash Flood WarningSJTColeman, Runnels, Taylor119 min
Sep 25, 5:08 PM CDTFlash Flood WarningSJTJones4 hr

Nearby

Flash Flood Warnings in Texas, 2003Every flash flood warning in 2003

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.