Alert archive / Texas / Flash Flood Warnings in 2003

Flash Flood Warning 79, NWS San Angelo, TX

September 18, 2003McCulloch County, Texas

NWS San Angelo, TX issued this flash flood warning at Sep 18, 2003, 7:26 PM CDT for McCulloch County, Texas. It was in force for 3 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Sep 18, 2003, 7:26 PM CDT (00:26 UTC)
Expired
Sep 18, 2003, 10:30 PM CDT
In force
3 hr
Issued by
NWS San Angelo, TX
Area
Counties, with a storm outline in the text

County McCulloch County, TX

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this flash flood warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Fort Worth, TX (KFWD), launched 00:00Z, 0.4 hours before the alert went out and 256 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Fort Worth, TX at 00:00Z on 2003-09-19Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 979 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Fort Worth, TX at 00:00Z on 2003-09-19The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity -42 square meters per square second.1939Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
979 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-55 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
675 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
28 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
-42 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
-36 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
-0.1
Supercell composite
-0.7

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
WGUS54 KSJT 190027
FFWSJT
TXC307-190330-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
726 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2003

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN ANGELO HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
  MCCULLOCH COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL TEXAS

* UNTIL 1030 PM CDT

* AT 720 PM CDT...WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED VERY HEAVY
  RAIN 3 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MERCURY...OR ABOUT 17 MILES NORTHWEST OF
  RICHLAND SPRINGS...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 20 MPH.

* THE THUNDERSTORM WITH EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL BE NEAR...
   ROCHELLE AT 745 PM CDT
   LOHN AT 755 PM CDT
   PEAR VALLEY AT 805 PM CDT
   BRADY...VOCA AT 810 PM CDT

* RAINFALL TOTALING TWO TO FOUR INCHES HAS FALLEN ACROSS NORTHERN 
MCCULLOCH COUNTRY...WITH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL UP TO TWO INCHES 
EXPECTED THROUGH 830 PM CDT. 

TURN AROUND DONT DROWN DO NOT DRIVE INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS
THE ROAD. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW SAFE PASSAGE.
REMEMBER...MOST FLASH FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN VEHICLES.

LAT...LON 3141 9911 3141 9925 3140 9954 3097 9953
          3098 9912

$$

17

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this flash flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS San Angelo, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood warning went out at Sep 18, 2:49 PM CDT, 4 hours 37 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Sep 18, 2:49 PM CDT, 4 hours 37 minutes before
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
249 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2003

WHILE MOST EYES ARE FOCUSED TO THE EAST ON HURRICANE ISABEL... A
COLD FRONT WAS MOVING INTO WC TX THIS AFTERNOON. AT 1930Z...AREA
WSR-88D RADARS PLACED THE FRONT ALONG A BAIRD...BLACKWELL AND
NORTHERN STERLING COUNTY LINE. MOVEMENT WAS SOUTHEAST AROUND 25 MPH.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAD DEVELOPED SOUTHEAST OF A STERLING CITY
TO ROBERT LEE TO ALBANY LINE...ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD
FRONT.

LATEST JAYTON WIND PROFILE INDICATES FRONTAL SURFACE REMAINS
RELATIVELY SHALLOW...3 KFT OR LESS. 18Z MESOETA PROGS 850 MB FRONTAL
SURFACE TO EXTEND FROM IRION COUNTY...TO THE SE BIG COUNTRY BY 09Z
FRIDAY. UPPER SUPPORT AND SHEAR VERY WEAK. WITH 850MB DEWPOINTS NEAR
15C POOLING ALONG THE 850MB FRONT...WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE OF RAIN
INTO THE EVENING PERIOD FOR THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA...AND INTO EARLY TOMORROW FOR THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR.

ANOTHER COLD FRON PROGGED TO MOVE INTO WC TX EARLY ON MONDAY.
GFS/12Z AVN/ CONSIDERABLY SLOWER THAT THE GFS/00Z MRF/ WITH THE
FRONT...WITH LESS CLOUD COVER AND LOWER RAIN CHANCES. GIVEN WEAKER
FRONTAL PUSH AND RELATIVELY DRIER AND STABLE PREFRONTAL BOUNDARY
LAYER...LOWER RAIN CHANCES APPEAR IN ORDER FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.

NW FLOW ALOFT TO WEAKEN BY NEXT TUESDAY...AS UPPER RIDGE OVER MEXICO
BUILDS INTO THE DESERT SW STATES W TX. RAIN CHANCES TO REMAIN BELOW
MENTIONABLE LEVELS MIDWEEK...WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS. UPPER LEVEL
LONGWAVE TROF TAKING SHAPE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TO RESULT IN
LEE-SIDE TROF DEVELOPMENT OVER NM LATE IN THE WEEK...WITH DEVELOPING
THETA-E RIDGE AND A CHANCE OF RAIN FOR WC TX TOWARD THE END OF NEXT
WEEK.

PRELIMS...
ABI 054/075/056/083 1-00
SJT 058/076/058/084 2-00
JCT 060/078/060/082 3100

.SJT...NONE.

14
Hazardous weather outlook, Sep 18, 2:05 PM CDT, 5 hours 21 minutes before
TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-140-
154-155-168>170-191000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
205 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...
A STRONG COLD FRONT ALONG INTERSTATE 20 IN THE BIG COUNTRY AT 2 PM
WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REST OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WHILE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE SLOW
MOVEMENT OF THE STORMS. AREAS EAST OF A BALLINGER TO JUNCTION HAVE
THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING THE HEAVIER RAINFALL. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER
IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Sep 18, 3:07 PM CDT, 4 hours 19 minutes before
TXZ071>073-076>078-139-140-154-155-168>170-182200-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...CORRECTED TO ADD DOLLAR SIGNS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
307 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2003

AT 307 PM CDT...A TRAINED SKYWARN SPOTTER NEAR PLACID IN NORTHERN
MCCULLOCH COUNTY REPORTED ROTATION IN A STORM.   BEWARE THAT THIS
TYPE OF ROTATION NORMALLY DOES NOT TOUCH THE GROUND AND BECOME
TORNADIC.

HOWEVER...KEEP YOUR EYE TO THE SKY AND BE PREPARED TO
TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT IT TOUCHES DOWN AND BECOMES TORNADIC.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.
Special weather statement, Sep 18, 3:19 PM CDT, 4 hours 7 minutes before
TXZ071>073-076>078-139-140-154-155-168>170-182100-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
319 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2003

AT 307 PM CDT...A TRAINED SKYWARN SPOTTER NEAR PLACID IN NORTHERN
MCCULLOCH COUNTY REPORTED ROTATION IN A STORM.  THIS ROTATION SELDOM
TOUCHES THE GROUND...AND IS TOO WEAK TO JUSTIFY ACTIVATING THE WHOLE
WARNING AND RESPONSE SYSTEM.  HOWEVER...THEY CAN CAUSE DAMAGE AND
EVEN INJURY ON RARE OCCASIONS WHEN THEY REACH THE GROUND.

KEEP YOUR EYE TO THE SKY AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER.

MEANWHILE...A COLD WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH WEST CENTRAL TEXAS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CONCHO VALLEY...THE HEARTLAND...AND THE
NORTHWEST HILL COUNTRY.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.

Nearby

Flash Flood Warnings in Texas, 2003Every flash flood warning in 2003

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.