Flash Flood Warning 29, NWS San Angelo, TX

WEST CENTRAL TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
847 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2003

MUCH QUIETER EVENING OVER WC TX...THUS FAR.

AIRMASS THIS AFTERNOON WAS HEAVILY MODIFIED FROM LAST EVENINGS
STORMS...WITH DAYTIME MAX TEMPS ONLY REACHING THE MID 80S UNDER LOW
AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STILL ABUNDANT
AT MID EVENING...WITH DEWPOINTS OVER WC TX IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S
AND 850MB DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TEENS C. GOES IR IMAGERY AND KLBB
RADAR INDICATE A SOUTH-SOUTHEAST PROPAGATING MCS ENTERING THE SOUTH
PLAINS AT 0130Z. PROPAGATION VECTOR BRINGS THIS MCS INTO THE FAR
WESTERN BIG COUNTRY AROUND MIDNIGHT OR 1 AM. 21Z RUC AND THE 18Z
MESOETA INDICATE BEST 850 MB MOISTURE CONVERGENCE TO REMAIN OVER
EAST CENTRAL NM AND THE PERMIAN BASIN AFTER MIDNIGHT...NEAR A LEE
SIDE 850MB LOW AND ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT. HOWEVER...20-25KT LOW
LEVEL JET ALREADY EVIDENT ON KDYX VAD WIND PROFILER...WHICH MAY AID
SOUTHEAST PROPAGATION OF THE MCS INTO THE BIG COUNTRY. ISOLATED STORMS
OVER SW TX WERE MOVING NE AROUND 10 MPH AND MAY MERGE WITH
APPROACHING MCS OVER THE PERMIAN BASIN.

ANY STORMS THAT ENTER WC TX LATE TONIGHT WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. WILL MENTION THE POSSIBILITY
OF SEVERE IN THE FIRST PERIOD. PER COORDINATION WITH THE SPC... A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH...INCLUDING WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE BIG
COUNTRY...MAY BE ISSUED SHORTLY.

TOMORROW EVENING/OVERNIGHT STILL APPEARS TO HOLD THE POSSIBILITY OF A
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT OVER WC TX. MORE INFORMATION WILL
BE FORTHCOMING IN THE EARLY MORNING FORECAST DISCUSSION.

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355 PM DISCUSSION...

DESPITE NUMEROUS BOUNDARIES LEFT OVER FROM LAST NIGHTS
CONVECTION...WITH THE ATMOSPHERE SLOWLY REJUVENATING ITSELF...DO NOT
EXPECT ANOTHER THE WIDESPREAD OUTBREAK. HOWEVER STORMS ARE FIRING UP
ACROSS NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO THE TX/OK PANHANDLES. THIS WILL
ALLOW A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST ALONG THE
NORTHWEST FLOW. WILL GO WITH THE SHORT TERM MODELS THINKING...WITH
THE CORE OF THE SYSTEM SLIDING ALONG THE RED RIVER. HOWEVER THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THIS SYSTEM WILL MAINLY AFFECT THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE BIG COUNTRY. THEREFORE WILL GRADUALLY REDUCE POPS
FROM NORTH TO THE SOUTH. STORMS ARE ALSO POPPING UP FROM NEAR
ROSWELL INTO FAR WEST TEXAS. MODELS ARE NOT INDICATING MUCH
DEVELOPMENT WITH THESE...HOWEVER WITH MORE OF A WEST TO EAST FLOW
WITH THESE STORMS...WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH.

THURSDAY AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL ONCE AGAIN FIRE UP ACROSS
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO WEST TEXAS...MUCH AS ON TUESDAY. WITH A
WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW...THIS WILL DRAG ANOTHER MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
SYSTEM ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. WITH BETTER UPPER SUPPORT AND
NUMEROUS BOUNDARIES LEFT OVER FROM PREVIOUS DAYS CONVECTION...HEAVY
RAIN AND STRONG STORMS DEVELOPMENT LOOKS TO BE SIMILAR TO TUESDAY
NIGHT. THEREFORE WILL GO WITH HIGH POPS FOR ALL AREAS...WITH THE
BEST CHANCES IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

A COLD FRONT FINALLY DRAGS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING HELPING TO CLEAR
THE STORMS ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALSO ALLOW SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR TO
FILTER DOWN INTO WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. THUS HAVE BUMPED DOWN HIGH
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES ON FRIDAY.

SATURDAY THE ATMOSPHERE REJUVENATES WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW
RETURNING. THIS WILL ALLOW DEEPER MOISTURE TO BEGIN TO RETURN AHEAD
OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE PASSING ACROSS...DRAGS
A COLD FRONT THROUGH SUNDAY. ALSO THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE
SUBTROPICAL JET PROVIDES SOME UPPER SUPPORT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WITH
MOISTURE POOLING UP ALONG THE FRONT...A LINE OF STORMS IS POSSIBLE.
EXPECT CLOUDS AND SHOWER ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE BEHIND THE FRONT
THROUGH MONDAY...WITH THE NORTHEAST TO EAST UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW.
OTHERWISE...RIDGING GRADUALLY BUILDS IN THROUGHOUT NEXT
WEEK...ALLOWING HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS TO GRADUALLY RETURN.

PRELIMINARY CCF

ABI 067/085/065/080 6362
SJT 068/087/066/083 3372
JCT 069/088/069/084 3263

.SJT...NONE.

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TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-140-
154-155-168>170-051815-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
130 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...
MOIST UNSTABLE AIR REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EXISTS...ALTHOUGH THE MASSIVE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON TUESDAY HAS STABILIZED THE ATMOSPHERE
SOMEWHAT.  BEST CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT WILL BE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE BIG COUNTRY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON
THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY EVENING/NIGHT...AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
MOVES INTO THE REGION. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS INTO
SUNDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY.

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