Flash Flood Warning 22, NWS San Angelo, TX

WEST CENTRAL TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION:RETRANSMISSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
135 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2003

SEVERE WEATHER AND FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL TX.

OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM LAST NIGHT MCS HAS BECOME DIFFUSE...BUT
APPEARS TO HAVE MOVED SOUTH OF A BROWNWOOD TO SAN ANGELO LINE...AND
MAY SAG SLOWLY SOUTHWARD. DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS OUR REGION
WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS FROM THE MID 60S NORTH TO LOWER 70S SOUTH...
AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.2 TO 1.5 INCHES. PRECIPITABLE
WATER MAY INCREASE INTO TONIGHT. AIRMASS HAS BECOME VERY UNSTABLE.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS POSSIBLE WEAK SHORTWAVE IMPULSE MOVING
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO EAST-CENTRAL NM. WITH CONTINUED DESTABILIZATION
AND EROSION OF CAP... EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALSO
EXPECTED IN FAR WEST AND NORTHWEST TX. THUNDERSTORMS TO ORGANIZE
INTO MCS AND TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN HALF OF OUR
COUNTIES TONIGHT. SOME UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS REGARDING EXACT MCS
TRACK....BUT LATEST INDICATIONS FAVOR IT IMPACTING THE BIG
COUNTRY...CONCHO VALLEY AND THE HEARTLAND TONIGHT. SETUP FAVORS
SEVERE POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREATS. GIVEN THE HEAVY RAINFALL DAYS IN
PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL TX ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL
HEAVY RAIN TONIGHT...PLAN TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH TONIGHT FOR
BIG COUNTRY...CONCHO VALLEY AND HEARTLAND.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO CONTINUE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH SURFACE
BOUNDARIES IN THE REGION. FAVORABLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO
BE PRESENT AS WELL. THUS WILL CONTINUE WITH POPS IN THE FORECAST.
TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF GREATEST POPS WILL DEPEND ON LOCATION
OF SURFACE BOUNDARIES AND TRACKS OF EMBEDDED UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES.
LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN NORTHEAST NM...TX PANHANDLE
AND NORTHWEST TX COULD RESULT IN OVERNIGHT MCS TRACKS INTO WEST
CENTRAL TX. AT THIS TIME APPEARS THE BIG COUNTRY WOULD HAVE THE
BEST CHANCE OF BEING IMPACTED. LATEST GFS HAS WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING
SOUTH ACROSS OUR COUNTIES THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. GFS ALSO
BRINGS A WEAK SHORTWAVE EAST ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. BASED ON LATEST MODEL TRENDS...WILL BOOST
POPS A BIT THURSDAY.

LOOKS DRIER OVER THE WEEKEND WITH INFLUENCE OF WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE. GFS BUILDS A BROAD UPPER RIDGE INTO SOUTHERN PLAINS
AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NEXT WEEK. DRY WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES
ANTICIPATED FOR WEST CENTRAL TX NEXT WEEK.

WILL UPDATE SOUTHERN COUNTY ZONES SHORTLY FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH BEING ISSUED.

THANKS MAF FOR THE COORDINATION CALL.

PRELIMINARY CCF

ABI 068/088/067/086/065 82332
SJT 070/090/068/088/066 72242
JCT 071/090/068/090/067 52243

.SJT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH TONIGHT FOR BIG COUNTRY...CONCHO VALLEY...
AND HEARTLAND.

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TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-140-
154-155-168>170-041900-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
200 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...

THERE IS A RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. WITH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
EVENING. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS OVERNIGHT. THE MAIN THREAT THIS EVENING
WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. AS THE STORMS CONTINUE INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL SHIFT TO
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...AS STORMS MOVE OVER THE TRACKS OF PREVIOUS
STORMS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR
AREAS NORTH OF A SAN ANGELO SAN SABA LINE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE IS
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS EACH DAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE LIKELY THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

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