Severe Thunderstorm Warning 93, NWS Shreveport, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
230 PM CDT THU APR 24 2003

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...GENERALLY SOUTH OF I20.  SOME HAIL AS LARGE AS SILVER
DOLLARS...BUT KNOW TORNADIC ACTIVITY YET ALTHOUGH A FEW STORMS HAVE
SHOWN SOME ROTATION.

MID LEVEL DRY AIR HAS MOVED WELL INTO THE AREA AND HAS REALLY
SUPPRESSED ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WEST OF I59 IN TEXAS... TO WEST
OF A TEXARKANA...DEQUEEN ARKANSAS LINE.  EAST OF THIS LINE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN A THREAT...WITH DECENT MOISTURE IN
PLACE...AND AS WE REACH MAXIMUM DAYTIME HEATING.  18Z SOUNDING STILL
SHOWED A CAPE AT 3700...LIFTED INDEX OF -10...BUT HELICITY HAS
DECREASED AS WINDS HAVE BECOME MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL.  SO THE MAIN
THREAT THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO BE LARGE HAIL...WITH ISOLATED
TORNADOES AS A POSSIBILITY.

FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST...LOOK FOR MID LEVEL DRYING TO CONTINUE
ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...WITH THE FLOW
ALOFT BECOMING MORE WESTERLY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.  ANOTHER UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE INTO
THE AREA BY SATURDAY...RETURNING THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BACK TO
NORTHWEST.  THIS LEADS TO A DRY FORECAST STARTING TOMORROW RUNNING
BASICALLY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK.

LOOK FOR TEMPS FROM NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
FOR TEMPS...I WILL BALANCE BETWEEN MAV AND FWC.

PRELIMS...
SHV 63/80/54/81 2000
MLU 64/79/54/80 4000
TXK 58/77/53/78 1000
TYR 60/80/54/81 0000
LFK 63/82/54/83 2000

ELEVEN

.SHV...NONE.

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-OKZ077-TXZ096-
097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-251200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1200 PM CDT THU APR 24 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...NORTHEAST
TEXAS...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...
A BIG SEVERE WEATHER DAY IS ON TAP...AS A MODERATE RISK IS OUT FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA.  THE CURRENT ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT WILL LIKELY
PRODUCE LONG LIVED SUPERCELLS THAT PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND TORNADIC
ACTIVITY.  THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF I20...WITH
SOME STORMS DEVELOPING IN PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF EMERGENCY MANAGERS...SKYWARN NETWORKS...AND STORM
SPOTTERS MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

LAZ010>014-017>022-TXZ152-153-165>167-241700-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1055 AM CDT THU APR 24 2003

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH EXPIRED...
...TORNADO WATCH CLEARED...

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ISSUED EARLIER THIS MORNING...FOR EAST
TEXAS...AND NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...HAS EXPIRED...
AND IS NO LONGER IS EFFECT.

IN ADDITION...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS CLEARED ANGELINA AND
NACOGDOCHES COUNTIES IN EAST TEXAS...FROM THE TORNADO WATCH ISSUED
EARLIER TODAY.

ALTHOUGH THESE WATCHES ARE NO LONGER IN EFFECT...RESIDENTS OF THE
FOUR STATE AREA...SHOULD STAY ALERT FOR POSSIBLE REDEVELOPMENT OF
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

LAZ006-014-021-242020-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
253 PM CDT THU APR 24 2003

ALTHOUGH ALL SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNINGS HAVE EXPIRED OVER NORTH
CENTRAL LOUISIANA...INCLUDING THE MONROE AREA...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OVER OUACHITA AND SOUTHEAST UNION PARISHES
THROUGH 330 PM. THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL...GUSTY
WINDS...AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL.

03