Severe Thunderstorm Warning 86, NWS Shreveport, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1000 AM CDT THU APR 24 2003

LOOKS LIKE A BIG SEVERE WEATHER DAY IS ON TAP...AS A MODERATE RISK
IS OUT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.  CURRENT SOUNDING POINTS TO AN ACTIVE
DAY WITH A LI OF -9...CAPE ABOVE 4000...HELICITY OF 400...AND AN
ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR.  THE ONLY THING LACKING
RIGHT NOW IS HEATING AT THE SURFACE TO START THE CONVECTION.  WHEN
AND IF STORMS DEVELOP LOOK FOR SUPERCELLS...PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND
TORNADIC ACTIVITY.  I BELIEVE THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY FOR MY AREA
WILL BE GENERALLY SOUTH OF I20...AS THIS IS WHERE THE DEEPEST
MOISTURE IS...AND SOME MID LEVEL DRYING IS TAKING PLACE ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN THIRD OF THE CWA.  FORECAST LOOKS FAIRLY GOOD...BUT
WILL ADJUST TEMPS IN THE ZONE UPDATE...AS A COUPLE OF SITES ARE
ALREADY WITHIN A CATEGORY OF THE FORECASTED MAXES.

ELEVEN

.SHV...NONE.

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-OKZ077-TXZ096-
097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-241700-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
600 AM CDT THU APR 24 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...NORTHEAST
TEXAS...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ENTIRE
FOUR STATE REGION TODAY.  A STRONG UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM OVER
EASTERN COLORADO AND WESTERN KANSAS...WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST INTO THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES ROTATING OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
TRIGGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER DEEP EAST TEXAS AND
NORTHCENTRAL LOUISIANA THIS MORNING.  SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME
SEVERE...WITH STRONG DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE.  AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE SAME AREA AS THAT OF
THE UPPER LOW WILL ALSO MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST TODAY...SENDING THE WEST
TEXAS DRYLINE EASTWARD INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHEAST TEXAS THIS
AFTERNOON. DESPITE MID AND UPPER LEVEL DRYING OF THE ATMOSPHERE ALONG
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS SYSTEM...STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO USHER ABUNDANT GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD.  SOME BREAKS IN
THE CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...ALLOWING DAYTIME HEATING
TO FURTHER DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE.  WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
DRYLINE THIS AFTERNOON...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE...WITH SOME OF THESE STORMS POSSIBLY BECOMING SEVERE.
LARGE HAIL...STRONG DAMAGING WINDS...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE
THE PRIMARY THREATS.  THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN IN
INTENSITY LATE THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF EMERGENCY MANAGERS...SKYWARN NETWORKS...AND STORM
SPOTTERS MAY BE REQUIRED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT, LA
800 AM CDT THU APR 24 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0720 AM    FLORIEN                   LA   .75 INCH HAIL
04/24/03   SABINE                         REPORT FROM LAW ENFORCEMENT

15

LAZ010>014-017>022-TXZ152-153-165>167-241700-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1055 AM CDT THU APR 24 2003

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH EXPIRED...
...TORNADO WATCH CLEARED...

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ISSUED EARLIER THIS MORNING...FOR EAST
TEXAS...AND NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...HAS EXPIRED...
AND IS NO LONGER IS EFFECT.

IN ADDITION...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS CLEARED ANGELINA AND
NACOGDOCHES COUNTIES IN EAST TEXAS...FROM THE TORNADO WATCH ISSUED
EARLIER TODAY.

ALTHOUGH THESE WATCHES ARE NO LONGER IN EFFECT...RESIDENTS OF THE
FOUR STATE AREA...SHOULD STAY ALERT FOR POSSIBLE REDEVELOPMENT OF
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON.