Severe Thunderstorm Warning 309, NWS Shreveport, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
230 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2003

SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING ALONG A DIFFUSE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ELEVATED CONVERGENCE AXIS RUNNING MOSTLY EAST
TO WEST ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF I-20 CORRIDOR. BELIEVE MUCH OF THIS
WILL END THIS EVENING BUT MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT THAT THIS CONVERGENCE
AXIS WILL HANG AROUND AFTER MIDNIGHT SO WILL LEAVE POP MENTION THROUGH
THE NIGHT.

PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP ON FRIDAY IN RESPONSE TO CYCLOGENESIS IN
THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES AND INCREASING RIDGING ACROSS N GULF. WILL KEEP
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS FOR FRIDAY WHERE
BETTER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL EXIST. COLD FRONT IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE LOW IN THE PLAINS SHOULD RESULT IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. BIG
QPF DISCREPANCIES WITH SHORT TERM MODELS FRIDAY NIGHT/SAT IN
ASSOCIATION WITH DEVELOPING MCS. PREFER THE DRIER GFS AT THIS TIME
AS MESOETA HAS OBVIOUS FEEDBACK PROBLEM WITH STRONG CONVERGENCE FROM
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING NEARLY 90 DEGREES PERPENDICULAR TO EXPECTED
STORM MOTION. HPC PROG VALID 00Z SAT-00Z SUN IN AGREEMENT.

MAIN FRONT MAY DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE REGION LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AND PULLING UP STATIONARY AND
FOCUSING BETTER POPS ACROSS THE NORTH. WENT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN THIRD BEGINNING SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT. FRONT SHOULD
WASH OUT BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW SETS UP ACROSS
THE ENTIRE REGION ONCE AGAIN.

UPPER LOW APPEARS TO BEGIN SLOWLY LIFTING OUT BY MID WEEK NEXT WEEK
AS FOUR CORNERS RIDGE AXIS BUILDS A LITTLE FURTHER EAST INTO W TX.
SPLIT NORTHERN FLOW REMAINS ACROSS LOWER MISS VALLEY WHICH COMBINED
WITH DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN ISOLATED CONVECTION THROUGH
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...THUS INCLUDED THIS WORDING THROUGH DAY 7 GRIDS.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW...13.

SHV 73/93/74/94 2112
MLU 72/92/73/93 2212
TXK 72/96/76/95 0013
TYR 73/96/76/96 2112
LFK 74/95/74/96 4212

.SHV...NONE.

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-OKZ077-TXZ096-
097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-011200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1200 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...NORTHEAST
TEXAS...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR OF NORTHEAST TEXAS AND NORTH CENTRAL
LOUISIANA. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE CAPABILITY OF PRODUCING
STRONG AND DAMAGING WINDS GUSTS ALONG WITH FREQUENT AND DEADLY
LIGHTNING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS...WHERE FLOODING COULD OCCUR. WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF EMERGENCY MANAGERS...SKYWARN NETWORKS...AND STORM
SPOTTERS...WILL NOT BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT.