Severe Thunderstorm Warning 241, NWS Shreveport, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
315 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2003

THE SOUTHERN END OF MORNING MESOSCALE COMPLEX HAS DISSIPATED...WITH
RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ALONG THE RED RIVER VALLEY.  THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IS ALREADY FIRING ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES
THIS AFTERNOON...AS WELL AS SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY NOTED WEST OF
MINERAL WELLS.  THIS ACTIVITY COULD AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE
TONIGHT.  IN ADDITION...MORE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER
TONIGHT AS A WEAK LOW LEVEL JET KICKS IN...AND ENCOUNTERS THE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THIS MORNINGS MCS.  WILL HAVE LIKELY POPS WITH
HEAVY RAIN/SEVERE WORDING ACROSS E TX NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20...AS
WELL AS SE OK AND ADJACENT AREAS OF SW AR.  THE BIGGEST HAZARD FROM
THE MCS APPEARS TO BE DAMAGING WINDS SIMILAR TO WHAT NORMAN AND
TULSA CWA/S HAD THIS MORNING.  THE REST OF THE AREA WILL HAVE CHANCE
POPS DUE TO UNCERTAINTY TO TRACK OF MCS...AND SLIGHTLY LESS UNSTABLE
AIR...BUT WILL HAVE SEVERE MENTIONED NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 PER SPC
DAY ONE OUTLOOK.

WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY WHICH WILL HELP FOCUS
RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION...WITH MOST AREAS HAVING LIKELY POPS.
HIGH TEMPS ON SUNDAY COULD BE A BUST DEPENDING UPON THE EXTENT OF
THE CLOUDS AND RAINFALL.  WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD OUT OF
THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING.  WILL HAVE SOME CHANCE POPS
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT WITH POPS TAPERING OFF DURING MONDAY.

IN THE EXTENDED...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...APPEARS TO BE DRY AS
RIDGING WILL DOMINATE THE AREA AND THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST IS PROGGED TO AMPLIFY WITH A SLIGHT JOG TO THE EAST.  THIS
WILL KEEP US DRY...AND ALSO WARM UP THE REGION TO ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

PRELIMS...

SHV 65/79/63/78  5633
MLU 62/80/61/79  4633
TXK 64/78/60/79  6632
TYR 66/79/63/78  6643
LFK 65/85/64/79  4443

22

.SHV...NONE.

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-OKZ077-TXZ096-
097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-251200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1200 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...NORTHEAST
TEXAS...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...
A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EAST OKLAHOMA LATE
THIS SATURDAY MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO FAR
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS AND EXTREME NORTHEAST
TEXAS.  THIS COMPLEX OF STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS THEY
MOVE INTO THE FOUR STATE REGION.  HOWEVER...MORE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE WITH THE AID OF DAYTIME HEATING THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING NEAR OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.  ISOLATED STORMS
COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.  LATER
TONIGHT...ANOTHER COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS COULD FORM ALONG A SLOW
MOVING BOUNDARY ACROSS THE REGION...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL BEING THE MAIN HAZARDOUS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM SATURDAY NIGHT WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE FOUR STATE AREA ON SUNDAY.
SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE...PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...
STRONG DAMAGING WINDS...IN ADDITION TO VERY HEAVY RAIN.  A WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...MAY RESULT IN YET ANOTHER CLUSTER OF SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF EMERGENCY MANAGERS...SKYWARN NETWORKS...AND STORM
SPOTTERS COULD POSSIBLY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND TO THE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20.