Severe Thunderstorm Warning 186, NWS Shreveport, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
350 PM CDT WED MAY 14 2003

NEXT ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CWA RIGHT
NOW. THIS HAS PROMPTED SPC TO ISSUE TORNADO WATCH FOR MUCH OF AREA
ALONG AND NORTH OF I 20 TIL 8 PM. THIS AREA MAY SLOWLY SAG SOUTHWARD
AS STORMS RACE EASTWARD. AM TENDING TO THINK A LITTLE THAT THERE
WON/T BE ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE DURING THE DAY TOMORROW...UNLESS
TONIGHTS IS LINGERING DOWN SOUTH IN THE MORNING. BUT STORMS MAY GET
GOING TOMORROW NIGHT...AND CHANCE OF STORMS WILL PERSIST INTO
SATURDAY AS UPPER LEVEL LOW COMES DRIFTING THIS WAY.

UPPER RIDGE LOOKS TO ASSERT ITSELF LATTER PART OF WEEKEND AND INTO
NEXT WEEK. NOT THAT WE WILL GET ANY LESS HUMID...BUT EXPECTING
CAPPING INVERSION TO KEEP THINGS QUIET FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. 17

PRELIMS...

SHV 69/89/72/87/71 4222
MLU 69/90/70/89/71 4222
TXK 68/88/71/86/70 6255
TYR 71/89/72/87/71 4222
LFK 70/90/73/89/73 2222

.SHV...NONE.

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-OKZ077-TXZ096-
097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-151100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1200 PM CDT WED MAY 14 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...NORTHEAST
TEXAS...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT ACROSS THE FOUR STATES REGION. HOWEVER...THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE
20...IS THE PRIMARY AREA OF CONCERN. A WEAK WARM FRONT STRETCHES
FROM THE RED RIVER OF MCCURTAIN COUNTY OKLAHOMA...THROUGH THE
VICINITY OF EL DORADO ARKANSAS. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SERVE AS
A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...WITH STORMS EXPECTED TO MOVE
EAST SOUTHEASTWARD AFTER FORMING. VERY LARGE HAIL IS THE PRIMARY
THREAT WITH SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH STRONG
DAMAGING WINDS ALSO QUITE POSSIBLE. ISOLATED TORNADOES CANNOT BE
RULED OUT EITHER...ESPECIALLY JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT
WHERE LOW LEVEL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL BE GREATEST.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
THERE IS A CONTINUED SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF EMERGENCY MANAGERS...SKYWARN NETWORKS...AND STORM
SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-012>014-OKZ077-TXZ096-097-
108>112-124>126-138-150100-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
406 PM CDT WED MAY 14 2003

...TORNADO WATCH CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH HALF OF THE FOUR
STATE AREA...

A TORNADO WATCH CONTINUES IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING...FOR
THAT PART OF THE FOUR STATE AREA GENERALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20.
THIS AREA INCLUDES ALL OF SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...MCCURTAIN COUNTY
OKLAHOMA. IT ALSO INCLUDES THE CITIES OF CLARKSVILLE...MOUNT
PLEASANT...GILMER...AND MARSHALL IN TEXAS...AND SHREVEPORT AND
BOSSIER CITY...MINDEN...HOMER...RUSTON...AND MONROE IN LOUISIANA.

A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOS IN AND
NEAR THE WATCH AREA. RESIDENTS OF THIS AREA SHOULD STAY ALERT FOR
RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS.

03