Severe Thunderstorm Warning 18, NWS Shreveport, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
300 PM CST TUE MAR 25 2003

THIS AFTERNOON A COLD FRONT EXTENDED SOUTHWEST ACROSS SW AR...
SE OK...AND INTO N CENTRAL TX NEAR A MOUNT IDA AR TO BROKEN
BOW OK AND PARIS TO DALLAS TX LINE. ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DEW POINTS HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE LOW TO
MID 60S. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST OVER THE
FOUR STATE REGION DURING THE NIGHT AS MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES
SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE AREA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY
FORMED ALONG AND NEAR THE LENGTH OF THE SYSTEM OVER NE TX...SE OK...
AND PARTS OF AR...AND SEVERAL SEVERE WEATHER WATCHES HAVE BEEN
ISSUED. DURING THE EVENING AS STRONG UPPER JET DIVERGENCE DEVELOPS
OVER THE FORECAST AREA SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DEVELOPING
AND SPREADING SOUTH WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER E TX...SW AR...AND
NW AND NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. THERE HAS BEEN A CAP OVER THE AREA
DURING THE DAY BUT THAT WILL BE WEAKENING..AND EXPECT  LARGE HAIL
AND HIGH AND POSSIBLY DAMAGING WINDS WITH SOME OF THE STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE EVENING AS THE MAIN THREAT. RAINFALL WILL BE
HEAVY AT TIMES AS WELL WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMBING INTO
THE 1 TO ONE AND ONE HALF INCH RANGE. BY LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING THE FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED TO ALONG THE
SOUTHERN EDGES OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH TRAILING SHOWERS OVER THE
FAR SOUTHEAST SECTIONS. CLOUD COVER WILL BE SLOW TO BREAK OUT FOR
THE SOUTHEAST SECTIONS DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL OVER THE
NORTHWEST SECTIONS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH INTO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THEN BY THURSDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
AREA SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST AND DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
ROCKIES BEGINS TO PULL GULF MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR THE
LATE WEEK SYSTEM THAT WILL RETURN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE AFFECTING THE
NORTHWEST SECTIONS THURSDAY NIGHT AND REMAINING SECTIONS ON
FRIDAY. BY THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEKEND TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE
COLD WITH READING DIPPING INTO THE 30S SUNDAY MORNING.

FCSTID =    6
SHV   51  68  50  79 /  80  10   0   0
MLU   51  68  52  80 /  80  30   0   0
TXK   50  68  50  78 /  80  10   0   0
TYR   51  71  51  79 /  80  10   0   0
LFK   53  70  54  81 /  80  10   0   0

.SHV...NONE.

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-OKZ077-TXZ096-
097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-261200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1200 PM CST TUE MAR 25 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...NORTHEAST
TEXAS...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...
THERE WILL BE A RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER ALL OF THE FOUR
STATE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL STORM
SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE
PRIMARY SEVERE FEATURE WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO BECOME
SEVERE...HOWEVER STRONG AND DAMAGING WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE FOUR STATE
REGION ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AS A STRONG COLD FRONT ENTERS THE REGION.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF EMERGENCY MANAGERS...SKYWARN NETWORKS...AND STORM
SPOTTERS WILL BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.