Severe Thunderstorm Warning 120, NWS Shreveport, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
230 AM CDT MON MAY 5 2003

A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEK...AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO.  THIS PATTERN WILL MAKE IT HARD FOR ANY SURFACE
FRONTAL BOUNDARIES TO MAKE IT INTO THE AREA THIS WEEK...HOWEVER A
MOIST AND FAIRLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE.  DAYTIME
HEATING AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL BE THE MAIN INITIATOR OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEK. I EXPECT
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP MAINLY NORTH OF I20 LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...AS THE MODELS SHOW A DECENT VORT MAX PASSING ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS VORT MAX SHOULD HELP BREAK THE MID LEVEL
CAP AND ALLOW CONVECTION TO TAKE PLACE VIA DAYTIME HEATING.  SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE MAINLY FOCUSED IN THE I30 CORRIDOR...AS THE UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE GULF WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPRESS THUNDERSTORMS THAT
MOVE TOWARD THE SOUTH. LOOK FOR LOW POPS THROUGH OUT THE WEEK...AS
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DEPEND ON HEATING AND NOT SO CERTAIN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES.  WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUES WITH
SOME SITES SEEING 90 THIS WEEK.

PRELIMS...
SHV 87/73/89/73 2522
MLU 87/74/89/74 2522
TXK 86/73/87/73 2522
TYR 86/72/89/74 2422
LFK 88/75/90/75 2222

ELEVEN

.SHV...NONE.

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-OKZ077-TXZ096-
097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-051700-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
600 AM CDT MON MAY 5 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...NORTHEAST
TEXAS...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY
INTERACTING WITH WARM...MOIST...AND UNSTABLE AIR TO PRODUCE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.  SOME STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.  THIS
ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINLY ACROSS EXTREME NORTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA...AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
A MOIST AND FAIRLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WILL LINGER THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK.  THEREFORE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF EMERGENCY MANAGERS...SKYWARN NETWORKS...AND STORM
SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.