Flash Flood Warning 34, NWS Shreveport, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
400 AM CST SUN NOV 16 2003

.DISCUSSION...

EARLY THIS MORNING A FRONTAL SYSTEM EXTENDED FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS
ACROSS EXTREME SE OK AND SW AR AND INTO W TN. A SURFACE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM THE EASTERN SEABOARD ACROSS THE GULF
OF MEXICO WHILE LOW PRESSURE WAS SITUATED IN MEXICO AND PARTS
OF W TX...AND ALONG THE BOUNDARY IN E AR AND W TN. A WARM...MOIST
AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER THE FOUR STATE REGION SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY
ALONG UPPER DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
HAS BEEN PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM E TX
ACROSS N LA...S AR AND INTO BORDERING SECTIONS OF MS.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE MOVING NORTH DURING THE DAY TODAY
WITH THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING ALONG AND MAINLY
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20. RIDGING ALOFT AND DEEPENING TROUGH TO THE
WEST WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPLY THE FOUR STATE REGION WITH A
SUPPLY OF WARM AND UNSTABLE AIR THROUGH MONDAY. THERE SHOULD BE A
BREAK IN THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT WITH CHANCES INCREASING ON MONDAY AND INTO EARLY
TUESDAY...AS THE TROUGH TO THE WEST SWINGS EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN U.S.  BY MONDAY AFTERNOON A BAND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL SECTIONS OF
THE FOUR STATE REGION AND SPREADING OVER THE EASTERN SECTIONS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT...THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM SE AR INTO DEEP EAST TX TOWARD
DAYBREAK TUESDAY. BY MID MORNING TUESDAY THE FRONT WILL BE EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA WITH DRIER AIR ENDING RAINFALL AND RETURNING HIGH
PRESSURE THAT WILL LAST THROUGH LATE WEEK. THERE MAY BE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM ON MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  76  66  75  58 /  50  40  70  70
MLU  74  64  76  59 /  80  40  70  70
TXK  74  64  72  57 /  20  50  70  70
TYR  76  66  75  58 /  50  40  70  50
LFK  77  68  77  59 /  80  30  70  50

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

06

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-OKZ077-TXZ096-
097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-161800-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
600 AM CST SUN NOV 16 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...NORTHEAST
TEXAS...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AT TIMES FROM DEEP EAST TEXAS...ACROSS WEST CENTRAL...AND NORTH
CENTRAL LOUISIANA...DURING THE DAY TODAY...AND INTO THE EVENING.
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR OVER THE REGION MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT...DUE TO A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE...
ALONG WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT ON THE SURFACE...AND
DISTURBANCES ALOFT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOST LIKELY END
ON TUESDAY AS THE STRONG SYSTEM ALOFT MOVES THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EAST AND AWAY FROM THE REGION.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF EMERGENCY MANAGERS...SKYWARN NETWORKS...AND STORM
SPOTTERS...WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT.