Severe Thunderstorm Warning 471, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
325 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2003

...MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...

.DISCUSSION...

.MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE DISCUSSION...

CONVECTION IS UNDERWAY ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IN CENTRAL MISSOURI
NEAR I-44 CORRIDOR AROUND ROLLA AND WAYNESVILLE. EXPECT STORM
DEVELOPMENT TO CONTINUE IN THIS AREA AND BEGIN ALONG OTHER
BOUNDARIES IN SOUTH CENTRAL MO AND SOUTHEAST KS/EXTREME SOUTHWEST MO
WHERE MOST INTENSE DESTABILIZATION IS OCCURRING. LATEST LAPS DATA
SHOWS CAPES OVER 4000 J/KG OVER JASPER AND CHEROKEE COUNTIES...AND
LIS AROUND -8...WHICH WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE
STORMS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 825 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM FOR
ALL OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA...EXCEPT BENTON AND MORGAN
COUNTIES...WHICH ARE NORTH OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND SATURDAY)...
MID LEVEL JET MAX IS STILL APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST...JUST
WAITING TO FUEL THE STORMS INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
LOSS OF AFTERNOON HEATING SHOULD LIMIT HAIL THREAT TONIGHT BUT
EXPECT WIND AND HEAVY RAINFALL TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. WILL CARRY
LIKELY POPS TONIGHT ALL AREAS TONIGHT WITH MENTION OF SEVERE IN
ZONES. WILL ALSO LINGER CHANCE POPS INTO SATURDAY ALL ZONES AND
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SATURDAY NIGHT OVER THE SOUTH.

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
MODEL SOLUTIONS AGREE ON BUILDING SOUTHWEST U.S. RIDGE INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AS UPPER TROUGH MIGRATES SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO QUEBEC
AND NORTHEST U.S.. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY STRONG
JET MAX MOVING OVER THE UPPER RIDGE INTO OUR AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY...WILL KEEP EXTENDED FORECAST DRY. WILL ALSO BRING
TEMPERATURES UP A BIT ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS MORE OF UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES OVER THE REGION
WILL WARRANT TEMPO THUNDER IN THE TAFS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. EXPECT MOST INTENSE STORMS BETWEEN 22Z AND 02Z...WITH
HIGHER WIND GUSTS ALSO NOTED IN TEMPO GROUP. HAVE CARRIED SCATTERED
STORMS IN TWEB ROUTES SOUTH OF A LINE FROM OSAGE BEACH TO CLINTON
THROUGH 08Z.

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.MO...NONE.
.KS...NONE.

TERRY

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-021100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1219 AM CDT SAT AUG 2 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MISSOURI OZARKS AND EXTREME
SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...SATURDAY.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED:

THUNDERSTORMS CONTAINING HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS...WIND GUSTS
IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH...AND TORRENTIAL RAINS CONDUCIVE FOR FLASH
FLOODING.

AREAS AFFECTED AND TIMING:

ALL OF EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND THE MISSOURI OZARKS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

DISCUSSION:

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO ERUPT ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE PRE-DAWN HOURS.  THE COMBINATION OF A STRONG LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE SURGE AND AN APPROACHING JET MAX ALOFT WILL PROVIDE
NECESSARY INGREDIENTS FOR RAPIDLY DEVELOPING SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY EVOLVE INTO A CLUSTER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...AND THE TRAINING OF STORMS OVER SPECIFIC LOCATIONS IS
LIKELY.  THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASED FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL
ESPECIALLY OVER THE ROCKY TERRAIN OF THE OZARK HILLS.  STRONG
DIRECTION CHANGE WITH WINDS ALOFT WILL ALLOW SOME OF THESE STORMS TO
MAINTAIN ROTATING UPDRAFTS FOR LONG PERIODS OF TIME.  OTHER THAN
FLASH FLOODING...HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF HALF DOLLARS AND STRONG WIND
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY.  ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE UPON PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM.  FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS FROM THIS ACTIVITY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST
KANSAS AND THE MISSOURI OZARKS THROUGH MUCH OF THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH OTHER
WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF

CRAMER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
0151 AM CDT SAT AUG 02 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0140 AM    LOUISBURG                 MO   .88 INCH HAIL
08/02/03   DALLAS                         REPORTED BY LAW
                                          ENFORCEMENT OFFICIAL.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
0216 AM CDT SAT AUG 02 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0211 AM    3 S TUNAS                 MO   60 MPH TSTM GUST
08/02/03   DALLAS                         LAW ENFORECEMTN REPORTED
                                          50 TO 60 MPH WIND GUSTS.
                                          REPORTED BY LAW
                                          ENFORCEMENT OFFICIAL.

0211 AM    3 S TUNAS                 MO   1 INCH HAIL
08/02/03   DALLAS                         REPORTED BY LAW
                                          ENFORCEMENT OFFICIAL.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
0249 AM CDT SAT AUG 02 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0232 AM    WALNUT GROVE              MO   WIND DAMAGE
08/02/03   GREENE                         TREE DOWN. REPORTED BY
                                          TRAINED STORM SPOTTER.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
0300 AM CDT SAT AUG 02 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0258 AM    1 NW MARSHFIELD           MO   70 MPH TSTM GUST
08/02/03   WEBSTER                        REPORTED BY VOLUNTEER
                                          WEATHER OBSERVER.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
0333 AM CDT SAT AUG 02 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0245 AM    3 E LEBANON               MO   WIND DAMAGE
08/02/03   LACLEDE                        REPORTED BY LAW
                                          ENFORCEMENT OFFICIAL.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
0345 AM CDT SAT AUG 02 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0300 AM    MARSHFIELD                MO   WIND DAMAGE
08/02/03   WEBSTER                        NUMEROUS REPORTS OF WIND
                                          DAMGE IN THE MARSHFIELD
                                          AREA. TREES DOWN.
                                          REPORTED BY LAW
                                          ENFORCEMENT OFFICIAL.

0320 AM    HARTVILLE                 MO   WIND DAMAGE
08/02/03   WRIGHT                         TREE DOWN. SEVERAL
                                          REPORTS OF UNSPECIFIED
                                          DAMAGE IN THE HARTVILLE
                                          AREA. REPORTED BY LAW
                                          ENFORCEMENT OFFICIAL.

0336 AM    GOODHOPE                  MO   60 MPH TSTM GUST
08/02/03   DOUGLAS                        REPORTED BY EMERGENCY
                                          MANAGEMENT.