Severe Thunderstorm Warning 38, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
125 AM CST SUN APR 6 2003

FORECAST CONCERNS: INTENSITY/LONGEVITY OF INITIAL RAINFALL THIS
MORNING. CHANCE OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN
MISSOURI SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

REGION RADAR SHOWING INCREASING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND THE WESTERN 1/2 OF FORECAST AREA SINCE 11 PM.
THIS IS RIGHT ON TARGET AS PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED AND WITH
INTENSIFYING LOW LEVEL JET AND UPPER LEVEL JET ENERGY MOVING OVER
THE REGION DURING THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS...EXPECT THE CONTINUATION
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE AREA.

INITIALLY DRY LOW LEVELS NEAR THE SURFACE WILL PRECLUDE SOME OF THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL IN SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI UNTIL AROUND DAWN AS
MOISTURE FEED FROM THE SOUTH NEARLY SATURATES THE SOUNDINGS
THROUGHOUT THE AREA (ALSO NOSE OF LOW LEVEL JET IS MORE IN LINE FOR
SOUTHWEST MISSOURI THAN SOUTH CENTRAL). DUE TO A VERY LOW WET BULB
HEIGHT...NUMEROUS REPORTS OF PEA SIZE HAIL WERE OCCURRING ACROSS THE
OZARKS...ESPECIALLY WITH RADAR ECHOES LIFT ABOVE 10000 FEET. THIS
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS BEFORE WET BULB
HEIGHTS RISE SLOWLY AS WARMER AIR ADVECTS NORTHWARD.

AS THE LOW LEVEL JET SHIFTS NORTHWARD THIS MORNING AND THE UPPER
LEVEL JET ENERGY MOVES EAST OF THE REGION...EXPECT AN OVERALL
DECREASE IN THE COVERAGE. HOWEVER RESIDUAL SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON (WEAK
OMAGES BETWEEN 70-50H). AS FOR SEVERE STORMS...SURFACE LOW AND WARM
SECTOR MAY REACH AS FAR NORTH AS EXTREME SOUTHWEST MISSOURI DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. CAPES INCREASE TO 1500 J/KG (NO CAP)
DURING THIS TIME...AND WITH WINDS VEERING FROM THE
SOUTHEAST...SURFACE BASED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. WILL HIGHLIGHT HWO
THIS MORNING ON THIS POTENTIAL PROBLEM.

ANYWAY THE MAIN ENERGY SHIFTS NORTHWARD SUNDAY NIGHT WITH RESIDUAL
CLOUD COVER EXPECTED ON MONDAY. MODELS ARE ALSO HINTING ON
PRECIPITATION TUESDAY AS MAIN UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. WILL
CONTINUE DRY FORECAST...BUT MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THIS
FEATURE DURING THE LAST TWO RUNS. ALSO THICKNESSES ARE LOW ENOUGH
FOR A MIXTURE OF FROZEN PRECIPITATION EXTENDED PERIODS CONTINUE TO
LOOK DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE CENTRAL U.S. THROUGH LATE
WEEK. EXPECT A SLOW MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD AS
THE AIR MASS REMAINS RELATIVITY COOL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

FINAL ISC GRIDS WILL BE SENT BY 3 AM.

...SGF...
MO...NONE
KS...NONE

JLT

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-061800-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
600 AM CDT SUN APR 6 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MISSOURI OZARKS AND EXTREME
SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

  WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED:

  ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL

  AREAS AFFECTED AND TIMING:

  SOUTH OF A LINE FROM PITTSBURG KANSAS TO GAINESVILLE MISSOURI.
  EARLY THIS MORNING FROM 6 AM TO 9 AM. THIS AFTERNOON FROM 3 TO
  7 PM.

  DISCUSSION:

  ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN
  MISSOURI AS STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
  PLAINS. SURFACE BASE CONVECTIVE IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN EXTREME
  SOUTHWEST MISSOURI LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING AS
  A SURFACE LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE KANSAS OKLAHOMA BORDER INTO
  NORTHEAST ARKANSAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

  A CANADIAN AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BY MID WEEK
  ALLOWING FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A FROST OR FREEZE TUESDAY OR
  WEDNESDAY MORNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
  LATEST TRACK OF THE SURFACE FEATURES TO SEE IF ANY SURFACE BASE
  CONVECTION DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON. THE BEST TIME FRAME WOULD BE 3
  TO 7 PM.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH OTHER
WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF

JLT