Severe Thunderstorm Warning 360, NWS Springfield, MO

MESOSCALE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1140 PM CDT FRI JUL 11 2003

.DISCUSSION...
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS/SATELLITE/WIND PROFILERS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG AN 85H THETA-E RIDGE AXIS
ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI. WIND PROFILERS OVER NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND
SOUTHEAST KANSAS ARE ALSO SHOWING AN SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN THE LOW
LEVEL JET FROM THE SOUTHWEST...WHICH IS IMPENDING UPON SOUTHERN
MISSOURI. 25H JET MAX OF 70K WAS ALSO MOVING INTO THE AREA WHICH IS
LIKELY SUPPORTING ADDITIONAL UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION. TRAINING OF
CELLS IN PHELPS AND DENT COUNTIES HAS ALREADY PROMPTED A FLASH FLOOD
WARNING IN THESE AREAS...AND ADDITIONAL TRAINING OF STORMS WILL
LIKELY AFFECT A PORTION OF SOUTHERN MISSOURI OVERNIGHT.

LATEST RUC/LAPS INFORMATION ALSO SHOW MOISTURE ADVECTION OVER
SOUTHERN MISSOURI THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z...WITH A SLOW PROGRESSION TO
THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT. DEEP MOISTURE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN
EXCESS OF 1.75 INCHES WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT OF FLOODING
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED HEAVY RAINFALL FRIDAY
EVENING.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.MO...NONE.
.KS...NONE.

JLT

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-121100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1025 PM CDT FRI JUL 11 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MISSOURI OZARKS AND EXTREME
SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...OVERNIGHT.

  WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED:

  NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT...SCATTERED STORMS MAY
  CONTAIN:
    HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF HALF DOLLARS.
    WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS 60 MPH.

  LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF AN INCH.

  AREAS AFFECTED AND TIMING:

  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG A STRONG
  MOISTURE AXIS LINE FROM SOUTHEAST KANSAS...EASTWARD THROUGH
  SOUTHERN MISSOURI DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE SEVERE HAIL AND
  HIGH WIND EVENT WILL LIKELY DIMINISH BY 1 AM...HOWEVER...THE
  THREAT OF FLOODING WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS RAINFALL WILL LIKELY
  CONTINUE OVER THE SAME AREAS THAT RECEIVED HEAVY RAINFALL FRIDAY
  EVENING.

  DISCUSSION:

  A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
  MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT. AS THE DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE AREA
  ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY ALONG A DEVELOP
  LOW LEVEL JET AND THETA-E RIDGE AXIS LINE OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI.

  IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE THREAT...SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
  CONTAIN HEAVY RAINFALL. AT THIS TIME CONDITIONS DO NOT FAVOR AN
  SIGNIFICANT FLOODING EVENT...BUT ISOLATED FLOODING IS LIKELY AS
  THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW LEVEL JET BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED
  OVERNIGHT. SOME LOCATIONS COULD SEE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2
  INCHES TONIGHT...WITH ISOLATED THREE TO FOUR INCH AMOUNTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

  THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO STALL OUT OVER SOUTHERN
  MISSOURI TOMORROW. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED
  ALONG THE BOUNDARY DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. IT IS UNCLEAR HOW
  TONIGHTS THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT CLOUD COVER AND SUBSEQUENT
  INSTABILITY...HOWEVER IF THE ATMOSPHERE DOES DESTABILIZE...WIND
  FIELDS WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE
  HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AGAIN ON SATURDAY.

  THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS
  YET ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE REGION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY THROUGH 3 AM OVER MOST OF SOUTHERN
  MISSOURI.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH OTHER
WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF

JLT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
320 AM CDT SAT JUL 12 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0302 AM    CRANE                     MO   1.25 INCH HAIL
07/12/03   STONE                          REPORTED BY LAW
                                          ENFORCEMENT OFFICIAL.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
322 AM CDT SAT JUL 12 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0315 AM    BILLINGS                  MO   WIND DAMAGE
07/12/03   CHRISTIAN                      TREES DOWN. REPORTED BY
                                          LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIAL.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
326 AM CDT SAT JUL 12 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0300 AM    GREENFIELD                MO   1 INCH HAIL
07/12/03   DADE                           REPORTED BY LAW
                                          ENFORCEMENT OFFICIAL.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
327 AM CDT SAT JUL 12 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0255 AM    MILLER                    MO   WIND DAMAGE
07/12/03   LAWRENCE                       TREES DOWN. REPORTED BY
                                          LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIAL.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
341 AM CDT SAT JUL 12 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0341 AM    2 N REPUBLIC              MO   .75 INCH HAIL
07/12/03   GREENE                         REPORTED BY HAM RADIO
                                          OPERATOR.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
345 AM CDT SAT JUL 12 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0340 AM    WALNUT GROVE              MO   1 INCH HAIL
07/12/03   GREENE                         REPORTED BY EMERGENCY
                                          MANAGEMENT.