Severe Thunderstorm Warning 30, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
302 AM CST TUE MAR 25 2003

...FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES TODAY AND THE
AMOUNT OF WARMING BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT PUSHES THROUGH FRIDAY...

EARLY THIS MORNING...A COLD FRONT STRETCHED FROM ROUGHLY KPNC...TO
KSTL. THE RUC SHOWED ELEVATED INSTABILITY ALONG AND BEHIND THE
FRONT. BEST LI VALUES RANGED FROM -2 TO -5. SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED IN THIS BAND OF INSTABILITY FROM NEAR
CHANUTE KANSAS TO SEDALIA MISSOURI.

LOOKING UPSTREAM...AN UPPER WAVE WAS FOUND JUST TO THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES. THIS ENERGY WILL TRACK TOWARD THE AREA...AND HELP TO
TRIGGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BEST Q-VECTOR FORCING FROM THIS
FEATURE WILL AFFECT SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND THE MISSOURI OZARKS BEFORE
NOON. HOWEVER...SOME FORCING LINGERS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL MISSOURI
DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY...SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. HOWEVER...A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE SMALL
HAIL...AS FREEZING LEVELS ARE LOW.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT...ALLOWING FOR
DECREASING CLOUDS. THIS HIGH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ON WEDNESDAY WHICH
WILL CAUSE A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY FLOW. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND
BACK INTO THE UPPER 60S ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST
MISSOURI...AND INTO THE LOWER 60S OVER CENTRAL MISSOURI.

A STRONG UPPER WAVE WILL PUSH INTO THE ROCKIES BY THURSDAY...CAUSING
CYCLOGENESIS IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL INCREASE THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT CAUSING SOUTHERLY WINDS TO INCREASE FURTHER. IN
ADDITION...ETA 850MB TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM 12 TO 14 DEGREES
ACROSS THE REGION. WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS...SHOULD BE ABLE TO MIX
THIS WARM AIR TO THE SURFACE. EXPECT TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE
MIDDLE 70S ACROSS SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...TO NEAR 70 ACROSS CENTRAL
MISSOURI.

COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE REGION BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS
FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR HOW MUCH MOISTURE
WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM. LATEST ETA DOESNT REALLY SHOW
THE GULF OPENING UP. ONLY A THIN BAND OF 5 TO 8 DEG C 850MB
DEWPOINTS ARE PROGGED WITH THE SYSTEM.

.SGF...
MO...NONE
KS...NONE

SAW

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-251200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
825 PM CST MON MAR 24 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MISSOURI OZARKS AND EXTREME
SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...OVERNIGHT.

  WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED:

  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
  HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE.

  AREAS AFFECTED AND TIMING:

  NORTHWEST OF A CAMDENTON MISSOURI TO PITTSBURG KANSAS LINE BETWEEN
  10PM AND 2AM...AND NORTHWEST OF A BRANSON TO SALEM MISSOURI LINE
  BETWEEN 2AM AND 6AM.

  DISCUSSION:

   WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER FAR EASTERN
   KANSAS AND PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI THIS EVENING. SOME
   OF WHICH MAY CONTAIN HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PEAS. THESE
   THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
   MOVE ACROSS MUCH OF THE OZARKS TOWARD DAWN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

  THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY. ONE
  OR TWO OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY STILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
  SOME HAIL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN MISSOURI NEAR
  THE ARKANSAS BORDER.

  ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING THE THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
  BACK INTO THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  DUE TO THE ISOLATED NATURE OF THE SEVERE WEATHER...SPOTTER
  ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE REQUIRED OVERNIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH OTHER
WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF

JLT