Severe Thunderstorm Warning 257, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
337 PM CDT TUE MAY 13 2003

...MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE PRECIPITATION CHANCES TONIGHT AND ON
WEDNESDAY...

CONVECTIVE COMPLEX THAT AFFECTED SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST
MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON HAS DEVELOPED A STRONG WAKE LOW WHICH HAS
PRODUCED A NARROW BAND OF HIGH WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH. THIS BAND
OF WINDS WILL PUSH EAST FOR THE DURATION OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS INTO
THE EARLY EVENING.  A HIGH WIND WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL BUT
BOURBON AND CHEROKEE COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

CONTINUED WITH LIKELY POPS TONIGHT...REMNANTS OF MORNING/AFTERNOON
CONVECTION FOUND ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AND CENTRAL MISSOURI...WITH
MORE SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS.  DONT
FEEL LIKE THESE STORMS WILL BE THE MAIN PRECIPITATION EVENT...HOWEVER.
SURFACE LOW IS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE WITH A WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM THE LOW INTO CENTRAL ARKANSAS. IN
ADDITION...NUMEROUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL BE DRAPED ACROSS THE
REGION.  LOW LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE TONIGHT...WITH 850 MOISTURE
TRANSPORT FOCUSED ON SOUTHWEST MISSOURI.  THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT
WILL INTERACT WITH EXISTING BOUNDARIES TO FORM ANOTHER CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER
SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI...AS PW VALUES WILL RANGE
FROM 1.25 TO 1.5 INCHES...AND K INDICES RANGE FROM 30 TO 35. A
SHORTWAVE WILL PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THIS FEATURE
WILL DRAG A FRONT THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY. MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY FOR
LOCATIONS EAST OF SPRINGFIELD.

IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS...THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH BRINGING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE INTO THE PLAINS ALONG THE
SOUTHERN STREAM ON FRIDAY.  THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH EAST...EXITING THE
OZARKS REGION BY SUNDAY.  LOOKS LIKE THE SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP ACROSS OKLAHOMA...WITH A WARM FRONT
STRETCHING FROM THE LOW INTO CENTRAL ARKANSAS ON FRIDAY.  THE GFS
TAKES THIS LOW DUE EAST...BRINGING IT INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY BY EARLY SUNDAY.  GOING POPS IN GRIDS FOR FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING LOOK GOOD.  WILL BUMP UP PERCENTAGES FRIDAY
NIGHT...AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT OVER THE BOUNDARY LOOKS SIGNIFICANT
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

BY LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...LONG RANGE MODELS INDICATE UPPER
RIDGING WILL TAKE HOLD OVER THE CENTRAL U.S...BRINGING DRY WEATHER
TO THE AREA. ANOTHER SUBTLE WAVE MAY AFFECT THE PLAINS ON TUESDAY.
ADDED LOWS POPS TO WESTERN AREAS OF THE FORECAST AREA TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS.

.SGF...
MO...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 PM.
KS...HIGH WIND WARNING FOR CHEROKEE COUNTY UNTIL 6 PM.

SAW

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-141100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
110 PM CDT TUE MAY 13 2003

...A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MISSOURI OZARKS AND EXTREME
SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

  WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED:

    ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF
    QUARTERS...AND DAMAGING WINDS NEAR 60 MPH.

    LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OF ONE TO TWO INCHES...WITH MINOR FLOODING.

  AREAS AFFECTED AND TIMING:

   SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI THROUGH 4
   PM...AND SPREADING ACROSS ALL OF THE OUTLOOK REGION TONIGHT.

  DISCUSSION:

  AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE PLAINS TOUCHED OFF A COMPLEX
  OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS KANSAS AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING.
  THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL TRACK INTO SOUTHWEST MISSOURI DURING THE
  AFTERNOON HOURS...BRINGING THE THREAT OF UP TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL
  ALONG WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING.  STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE
  REGION TONIGHT WILL TOUCH OFF ANOTHER COMPLEX OF STORMS...WHICH
  WILL AFFECT MUCH OF THE OZARKS REGION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

  ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER
  LEVEL SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED FRONT PUSH ACROSS THE AREA.  LARGE
  HAIL WILL AGAIN BE THE PRIMARY THREAT.

  THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEK
  AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.  ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS AND LOCALLY
  HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED WEST OF A LINE FROM BOLIVAR
  TO GAINESVILLE THROUGH 4 PM AND ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
  OUTLOOK AREA TONIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH OTHER
WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF

SAW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1238 PM CDT TUE MAY 13 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

1135 AM    MONETT                    MO   .75 INCH HAIL
05/13/03   BARRY                          REPORTED BY VOLUNTEER
                                          WEATHER OBSERVER.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
248 PM CDT TUE MAY 13 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0232 PM    WEBB CITY                 MO   WIND DAMAGE
05/13/03   JASPER                         POWER LINES DOWN.
                                          REPORTED BY LAW
                                          ENFORCEMENT OFFICIAL.