Severe Thunderstorm Warning 173, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED LAST LINE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
508 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2003

...MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE DISCUSSION...

SUPERCELL OVER LABETTE COUNTY KANSAS AND ANOTHER OVER NOWATA COUNTY
WILL BE MOVING INTO THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA WITHIN
ABOUT AN HOUR. SKIES HAVE CLEARED OVER EXTREME SOUTHWEST MISSOURI
AND THE ATMOSPHERE HAS BECOME VERY UNSTABLE. 0-1KM HELICITIES OF
150-300 M2/S2 OVER THE AREA...0-3KM CAPE OF OVER 100 J/KG AND
INCREASING RAPIDLY NOW THAT SUN HAS EMERGED. THE POTENTIAL FOR LONG
TRACKED AND STRONG TORNADOES IS VERY HIGH WEST OF AN OSCEOLA...TO
SPRINGFIELD...TO BRANSON LINE.

SUPERCELL MOVING OUT OF CRAWFORD COUNTY CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO AN
ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED TORNADO PRODUCTION...AND STRONG,
LONG TRACKED TORNADO IS POSSIBLE WITH THAT CELL AS WELL AS IT MOVES
THROUGH BARTON COUNTY.

UNCONFIRMED REPORTS OF SIGNIFICANT STRUCTURAL DAMAGE IS NOW BEING
REPORTED WITH THE TORNADO IN CRAWFORD.

.SGF...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.

IZZI

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-051100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
100 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2003

...OUTBREAK OF VIOLENT THUNDERSTORMS AND TORNADOS LIKELY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MISSOURI OZARKS AND EXTREME
SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

  WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED:

  NUMEROUS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING...
    VERY LARGE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF BASEBALLS
    DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH
    TORNADOS...INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL OF STRONG
               AND PARTICULARLY DAMAGING TORNADOS

  AREAS AFFECTED AND TIMING:

  SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING WEST OF AN OSCEOLA TO NEOSHO LINE
  AS EARLY AS 2 PM...AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 65 BETWEEN 3
  AND 5 PM...AND AREAS BETWEEN 65 AND HIGHWAY 63 BETWEEN 4 AND 6 PM.

  ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:

  A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF THE OUTLOOK
  AREA UNTIL 6 PM.

  DISCUSSION:

  CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AND ALLOW FOR
  STRONG SURFACE HEATING. A HUMID AND VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS IS
  FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE OUTLOOK AREA THIS AFTERNOON. A POWERFUL
  LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DRAG A DRYLINE INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS
  OF THE OUTLOOK AREA THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE EXTREMELY FAVORABLE
  AND STRONG WINDS ALOFT...AND THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY FORECAST TO
  BE PRESENT...EXPLOSIVE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS
  ANTICIPATED BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF
  THE OUTLOOK AREA. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN MOVE RAPIDLY
  EASTWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE OUTLOOK AREA LATE THIS
  AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

  CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BECOME FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS THIS
  AFTERNOON AS SURFACE DEWPOINTS SURGE WELL INTO THE 60S TO NEAR 70
  DEGREES. LARGE AND DAMAGING HAIL...DESTRUCTIVE STRAIGHT LINE
  WINDS...AND TORNADOS...INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW LONG
  LIVED AND PARTICULARLY DESTRUCTIVE TORNADOS.

  THE WEATHER SITUATION WILL LIKELY EVOLVE VERY RAPIDLY WITH STORMS
  DEVELOPING BY 2 PM. ONCE STORMS DEVELOP THEY WILL INTENSIFY
  RAPIDLY...BECOMING SEVERE AND POSSIBLY TORNADIC WITH IN AN HOUR OF
  INITIATION. PERSONS OVER THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK SHOULD TAKE TIME NOW
  TO REVIEW TORNADO SAFETY RULES AND BE READY TO REACT QUICKLY IF
  THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES.

  THIS IS POTENTIALLY A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION. THOSE IN THE
  OUTLOOK AREA ARE URGED TO REVIEW SEVERE WEATHER SAFETY RULES AND
  TO LISTEN TO RADIO AND TELEVISION AND NOAA WEATHER RADIO.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

  NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE REQUIRED AS EARLY AS 2 PM OVER WESTERN
  PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA...AND BETWEEN 2 PM AND MIDNIGHT FOR
  THE REMAINDER OF THE OUTLOOK AREA.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH OTHER
WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF

IZZI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
702 PM CDT SUN MAY 04 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0530 PM    LIBERAL                   MO   TORNADO
05/04/03   BARTON                         TORNADO ON GROUND.
                                          REPORTED BY LAW
                                          ENFORCEMENT OFFICIAL.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
706 PM CDT SUN MAY 04 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0704 PM    PIERCE CITY               MO   TORNADO
05/04/03   LAWRENCE                       TORNADO CONFIRMED ON
                                          GROUND BETWEEN PEIRCE
                                          CITY AND MONETTE. .
                                          REPORTED BY COOPERATIVE
                                          OBSERVER.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
707 PM CDT SUN MAY 04 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0500 PM    GIRARD                    KS   TORNADO
05/04/03   CRAWFORD                       CONFIRMED ON GROUND.
                                          REPORTED BY LAW
                                          ENFORCEMENT OFFICIAL.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
708 PM CDT SUN MAY 04 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0705 PM    1 N PIERCE CITY           MO   TORNADO
05/04/03   LAWRENCE                       DAMAGE REPORTED.
                                          REPORTED BY HAM RADIO
                                          OPERATOR.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
711 PM CDT SUN MAY 04 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0508 PM    ARMA                      KS   TORNADO
05/04/03   CRAWFORD                       METEOROLOGIST REPORTED
                                          TORNADO ON GROUND.
                                          REPORTED BY PUBLIC.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
713 PM CDT SUN MAY 04 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0712 PM    HUMANSVILLE               MO   TORNADO
05/04/03   POLK                           TWO HOMES DESTROYED. .
                                          REPORTED BY EMERGENCY
                                          MANAGEMENT.