Severe Thunderstorm Warning 3, NWS Blacksburg, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG, VA
1015 AM EDT WED APR 30 2003

BOUNDARY ACROSS S CEN NC AND ERN TN/KY SHUD SHIFT NWD TODAY AS
PROGGED BY THE MODELS. THIS WILL PRIVIDE SOME LL CONVERGENCE FOR AFT
TSTMS. IN ADDITION...LL SSE FLOW INTO THE BLUE RIDGE SHUD ALSO
PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT. MODIFIED 12Z SOUNDINGS BRING
CAPES AROUND 2000 J/KG. SHUD BE PULSE TYPE STORMS...AND SOUNDING IS
WARM ENOUGH/LAPSE RATES LOW ENOUGH THERE IS NOT MUCH THREAT OF
SEVERE. PW/S 1 TO 1.25...AND SLOW STORM MOTION MEANS WE/LL PROB SEE
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. MAY EVEN SEE SOME REDEVELOPMENT OVER
THE SAME LOCATIONS ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE. IN ANY EVENT...PREVIOUS
SHIFT MENTIONED LOCALLY HEVAY DOWNPOURS IN THE HWO.  AM PLANNING ON
INCREASING POPS TO LIKELY AT LEAST ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE. FCST MAX
TEMPS LOOK A LITTLE LOW UNLESS WE SEE A LOT OC CU DEVELOPMENT SOON-
WILL PROB RAISE THEM A CAT MOST AREAS.

.RNK...
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

JJ

NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059-
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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
120 PM EDT WED APR 30 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...
WESTERN AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA...AS WELL AS NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN...AND SMALL HAIL. ISOLATED STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE UP TO
QUARTER SIZE HAIL OR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS FRIDAY.  SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THE
GREATEST THREAT OF STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY...BUT MAY BE NEEDED
LATER IN THE WEEK.

NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059-
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SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
118 PM EDT WED APR 30 2003

...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING IN THE MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON...AND WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS TOWARD LATE AFTERNOON AS
THEY SPREAD SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO THE FOOTHILLS. WE HAVE HAD ENOUGH
HEATING SO THAT SOME OF THE STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTAIN SMALL HAIL. A
FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE HAIL UP TO
QUARTER SIZE... POSSIBLY EVEN DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

IN ADDITION TO THE POSSIBILITY OF LARGE HAIL...THESE STORMS WILL BE
SLOW MOVING...AND LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS OF MORE THAN AN INCH OF
RAIN IN LESS THAN AN HOUR IS LIKELY.

BECAUSE OF THE EXPECTED ISOLATED COVERAGE OF SEVERE
WEATHER...SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

06

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
147 PM EDT WED APR 30 2003

AT 147 PM EDT THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN WERE COVERING THE
WESTERN PORTION OF MERCER COUNTY...WEST AND NORTHWEST OF MATOAKA.
DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATED THAT OVER TWO INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN IN
THE CRANE CREEK BASIN...AND NEARLY TWO INCHES IN THE WIDEMOUTH CREEK
AREA.  THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING SLOWLY NORTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN
MERCER...AND ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS LIKELY.  PEOPLE IN AND AROUND
THE MATOAKA AREA SHOULD AVOID AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING. IF WATER
BEGINS TO SUDDENLY RISE...MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY.

LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR COMMERCIAL RADIO OR TELEVISION TO
STAY ABREAST OF THE WEATHER FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.  BE
PREPARED TO ACT QUICKLY SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

04