Alert archive / North Carolina / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2003

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 27, NWS Blacksburg, VA

May 2, 2003Rockingham County, North Carolina

NWS Blacksburg, VA issued this severe thunderstorm warning at May 2, 2003, 6:22 PM EDT for Rockingham County, North Carolina. It was in force for 23 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: May 2, 2003, 6:22 PM EDT (22:22 UTC)
Expired: May 2, 2003, 6:45 PM EDT
In force: 23 min
Issued by: NWS Blacksburg, VA
Area: Counties, with a storm outline in the text

County Rockingham County, NC

The radar

The Roanoke radar (KFCX), 82 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:23 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC (KGSO), launched 12:00Z, 10.4 hours before the alert went out and 42 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 66 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -126 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1115 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 12 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: -28 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 49 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

674 
WUUS51 KRNK 022222
SVRRNK
NCC157-022245-

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
622 PM EDT FRI MAY 2 2003

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BLACKSBURG HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  ROCKINGHAM COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA

* UNTIL 645 PM EDT.

* AT 618 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES EAST OF STONEVILLE...MOVING SOUTHEAST
  AT 15 MPH.

* SOME LOCATIONS THREATENED THROUGH 645 PM EDT INCLUDE
  STONEVILLE...
  WENTWORTH...
  REIDSVILLE...

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING UP TO DIME SIZE HAIL 
OR LARGER.

<<CALL TO ACTION>>LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS SEVERE 
THUNDERSTORM. IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THE STORM...PUT YOUR CAR IN A
GARAGE AND MOVE TO A SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER.

RELAY SEVERE WEATHER REPORTS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY
CALLING TOLL FREE...1...8 6 6...2 1 5...4 3 2 4.

LAT...LON 3628 7962 3644 7999 3654 7993 3654 7970
          3649 7952

$$

12

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Blacksburg, VA wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at May 2, 3:20 PM EDT, 3 hours 2 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, May 2, 3:20 PM EDT, 3 hours 2 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG, VA
320 PM EDT FRI MAY 2 2003

CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MOVING FROM EASTERN TENNESSEE INTO WEST NORTH
CAROLINA ATTM. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM FOR
ASHE...WATAUGA...ALLEGHANY AND WILKES COUNTIES IN NORTH CAROLINA.
THIS ACTIVITY AND ANY OTHER ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS DURING THE HEAT
OF THE DAY EXPECTED TO BE GONE BY LATE THIS EVENING.

BACK DOOR COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO NORTHEASTERN ZONES LATE
TONIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE SOUTHWARD DURING THE DAY.
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHING THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON
COMBINED WITH LINGERING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...MAINLY IN THE
SOUTH AND WEST FOR SOME MORE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. AS
THE UPPER SYSTEM MOVES BY DURING THE NIGHT...HAVE CONTINUED THE
THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE NIGHT.

NEXT SYSTEM FAST ON THE HEELS OF THE FIRST SYSTEM EXPECTED TO IMPACT
THE AREA BEGINNING IN THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATE
IN THE WEST AND EVERYWHERE ON MONDAY. THINK THERE WILL BE PLENTY
CLOUDS FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA. ENSEMBLE GFS MOS GOING ANYWHERE FROM 60 TO 85
FOR ROANOKE FOR A HIGH ON MONDAY. AS A RESULT OF THE CLOUDS AND THE
WARM FRONT STILL LIKELY TO BE LOCATED TO THE SOUTHWEST...AM LEANING
TOWARDS THE LOWER SIDE OF THE RANGE. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WE WILL
BE IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH SCATTERED...MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

HAVE IGNORED THE GFS HANDLING ON THE SYSTEM THAT IT PREDICTS WILL
IMPACT THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK. HAVE FOLLOWED THE CANADIAN/ECMWF
SOLUTION WHICH BRINGS THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THE FIRST PART OF THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR
FRIDAY WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED.

EMLAW/JJ

FIRST GUESS NUMBERS:
ROA   55  69  47  67 /  30  30  30  10
LYH   54  67  47  65 /  30  30  30  10
DAN   58  70  48  69 /  40  30  30  10
BLF   50  63  44  65 /  30  30  30  10
LWB   50  64  44  65 /  30  30  30  10
BCB   52  66  45  67 /  30  30  30  10
TNB   50  65  44  64 /  40  30  30  10

.RNK...
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

Hazardous weather outlook, May 2, 12:40 PM EDT, 5 hours 42 minutes before

NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059-
WVZ042>045-031130-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1240 PM EDT FRI MAY 2 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...
WESTERN AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA...AS WELL AS NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

THERE WILL BE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS...
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED STORMS MAY APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS...
BUT WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. PLEASE REFER TO THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...SPSRNK...FOR MORE DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LAT ETHIS AFTERNOON.

06

In the hours before

Special weather statement, May 2, 12:35 PM EDT, 5 hours 47 minutes before

NCZ001>006-018-019-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059-
WVZ042>045-022230-
SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1235 PM EDT FRI MAY 2 2003

...ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE
MOUNTAINS...

AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING IN THE
MOUNTAINS. ISOLATED STORMS COULD REACH SEVERE LIMITS...WITH DAMAGING
WINDS AND DIME SIZED OR LARGER HAIL.

AS THESE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS MOVE EAST INTO THE FOOTHILLS
AND PIEDMONT...MAINLY THIS EVENING...THEY WILL BE WEAKENING. THERE
IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP IN THE PIEDMONT
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. IF THEY DO...THEY COULD REACH SEVERE LEVELS.

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.

JJ

Special weather statement, May 2, 1:54 PM EDT, 4 hours 28 minutes before

NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059-
WVZ042>045-022100-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
154 PM EDT FRI MAY 2 2003

CORRECTED TYPO

...ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE
MOUNTAINS...

AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING BETWEEN 3:30 PM AND 4:30 PM IN THE MOUNTAIN
EMPIRE AND NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS.  SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP IN THE GREENBRIER AND NEW
RIVER VALLEY DURING RUSH HOUR.   ISOLATED STORMS COULD REACH SEVERE
LIMITS...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND DIME SIZED OR LARGER HAIL.

AS THESE THUNDERSTORMS MOVE EAST THIS EVENING...INTO THE FOOTHILLS
AND PIEDMONT...THEY WILL BE WEAKENING.  THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
THAT THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP IN THE PIEDMONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
IF THEY DO...THEY COULD REACH SEVERE LEVELS.

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.

RCS

Special weather statement, May 2, 3:32 PM EDT, 2 hours 50 minutes before

NCZ001-002-018-022100-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
332 PM EDT FRI MAY 2 2003

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON IN THE NORTHWEST
NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS...

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR
WATAUGA...ASHE...ALLEGHANY AND WILKES COUNTIES IN NORTH CAROLINA.

AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN 3:50 PM AND 5:00 PM IN
THE NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS.  THESE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE A
HISTORY OF PRODUCING WIND SPEEDS UP TO 70 MPH...TOPPLING TREES AND
DISRUPTING POWER.

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NEEDED.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.

RCS

Special weather statement, May 2, 3:54 PM EDT, 2 hours 28 minutes before

VAZ007-009-015-022100-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
354 PM EDT FRI MAY 2 2003

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE MOUNTAIN
EMPIRE AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINS...

AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN 4:00 PM AND 5:00 PM IN
THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE COUNTIES AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINS.
THESE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE A HISTORY OF PRODUCING WIND SPEEDS UP TO 50
MPH...TOPPLING TREES AND DISRUPTING POWER.

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NEEDED.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.

RCS

Local storm report, May 2, 5:19 PM EDT, 1 hour 3 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
519 PM EDT FRI MAY 02 2003

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0453 PM    DOBSON                    NC   0.75 IN HAIL
05/02/03   SURRY

0454 PM    WARRENSVILLE              NC   1.00 IN HAIL
05/02/03   ASHE

Local storm report, May 2, 5:58 PM EDT, 24 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
558 PM EDT FRI MAY 02 2003

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0546 PM    EAST BEND                 NC   0.75 IN HAIL
05/02/03   YADKIN

TW

The office that day

Everything else NWS Blacksburg, VA issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
May 2, 4:14 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	RNK	Watauga	46 min
May 2, 4:50 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	RNK	Surry, Yadkin	40 min
May 2, 4:54 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	RNK	Ashe	36 min
May 2, 5:10 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	RNK	Alleghany	35 min
May 2, 5:38 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	RNK	Yadkin	22 min
May 2, 7:20 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	RNK	Caswell	40 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in North Carolina, 2003 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2003

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.