Severe Thunderstorm Warning 242, NWS Blacksburg, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG, VA
300 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2003

TONITE THRU FRI NITE...

ISOLD STORMS IN NC FOOTHILLS WILL REMAIN SO AND DIE QUICKLY DURING
THE EARLY EVEN WITH REALLY NO FORCING TO KEEP THEM GOING. 12Z ETA
PRECIP NAILED THIS AREA...BUT NOT AS GOOD WITH ORGANIZED CONVECTION
IN OH VALLEY.  A FEW ISOLD CELLS ALSO TRYING TO POP JUST TO OUR
WEST...SO WILL LEAVE SLGT CHC POP FOR ALL OF WEST IN FOR A FEW HOURS
THIS EVE.  SOME CONCERN ABOUT OHIO VALLEY MCS SNEAKING INTO
GREENBRIER AND NRN ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS REGION LATER THIS
EVE...PROPAGATION VECTORS TURN IT MORE SOUTHEAST IF IT
PERSISTS...BUT WITH BOUNDARY REMAINING TO NORTH AND CURRENT RADAR
AND SATELLITE TRENDS...FEEL THE THREAT WILL BE MINIMAL AND SO WILL
ONLY HAVE SMALL AREA OF LOW CHC POP UP THERE FOR A FEW HOURS
OVERNIGHT.

FOR THURS...MDLS AGREE THAT SFC BNDRY REMAINS WELL TO NORTH...S/WV
RDG BUILDS IN...AND 850 HIGH SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST.  THIS WILL RESULT
IN MORE OF A SSW FLOW DEVELOPING...SOMEWHAT LOWER LOW-LEVEL
THICKNESSES...SO HIGHS WILL BE DOWN A FEW DEG COMPARED TO TDY...AND
WITH MDL SNDGS SHWG SLIGTH INCREASE IN LOW LVL MSTR...SCT CONVECTION
CERTAINLY PSBL IN MTNS AND ALONG BLU RDG.  SIMILAR PTRN FOR
FRI...BUT WITH FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM WEST MSTR SHOULD
DEEPEN FURTHER STILL IN THE WEST...ESPECIALLY LATE...FOR CONTINUED
CHC OF AFT/EVE CONVECTION.  HOWEVER LOW-LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE WSW
AHEAD OF FRONT...THUS KEEPING DOWNSLOPE GOING IN THE EAST AND
MINIMAL PRECIP THREAT THERE. DESPITE SOMEWHAT COOLER GUIDANCE FOR
HIGHS FRI...WSW FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN EQUALLY WARM TEMPS OUT EAST AS
ON THURS...BUT WILL COOL IT A CUPL DEG IN THE WEST BETWEEN THUR AND
FRI.

SAT THRU WED...

MADE FEW CHANGES SINCE NEW MED RANGE GUIDANCE LIMITED. FRONT
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY APPROACH FROM WEST ON SAT...WITH POSSIBLE WAVE
AND EVEN TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM SYSTEM IN GULF SUNDAY OR MONDAY.
GUIDANCE NOW HOLDS FRONT UP OVER OR JUST WEST OF RNK CWA...SO COULD
END UP BEING FAIRLY WET FOR LATER PARTS OF LABOR DAY WKND. LOTS OF
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THIS TROPICAL SYSTEM EXPECTED TO CROSS FL INTO
GULF...SO WILL KEEP POPS IN LOW TO MID CHC CAT AT THIS POINT. OLD
MRF AND NEW CANADIAN TRYING TO EVENTUALLY PUSH FRONT THRU BY
WED...BUT CANADIAN ENSEMBLES SUGGEST FRONT COULD BE SLOWER TO
PROGRESS.  THEREFORE NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN CUTTING OFF PRECIP
CHANCES ON WED...AND WILL THEREFORE KEEP A LOW CHC GOING.

.RNK...
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

KEIGHTON

NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059-
WVZ042>045-272200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1135 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...
WESTERN AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA...AS WELL AS NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST
VIRGINIA...AND THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS AND SOUTHERN SHENANDOAH
VALLEY OF VIRGINIA. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK...
SPSRNK...FOR DETAILS.

THIS PRODUCT CAN BE VIEWED ON THE BLACKSBURG OFFICE INTERNET PAGE AT
WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ER/RNK.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.