Severe Thunderstorm Warning 212, NWS Blacksburg, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG, VA
1035 AM EDT TUE AUG 5 2003

CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THAT MOVED THROUGH OVERNIGHT HAS STABALIZED
ATMOSPHERE CONSIDERABLY.  DEEPER MOISTURE HAS NOW BEEN SHUNTED EAST
OF THE FCST AREA WITH CONSIDERABLE DRYING AT ALL LEVELS...PWATS NOW
DOWN TO 1.00 TO 1.25.  AS A RESULT...DO NOT FORSEE A FLASH FLOOD
THREAT TODAY.  IF ANYTHING...WESTERLY WINDS SFC AND ALOFT WILL WORK
AGAINST POOLING OF ANY MOISTURE EXCEPT FOR THE WINDWARD SLOPES IN
THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA.

MODIFIED AFTN RNK SOUNDING YIELDS AFTN CAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG.  IN
SPITE OF DRY AIR AND WESTERLY WINDS...PRESENCE OF UPPER TROF AND THE
EXIT REGION OF UL JET STREAK TO OUR SW MAY BE ENOUGH TO INITIATE SCT
AFTN DEEP CONVECTION.  WITH COLD AIR ALOFT (5H TEMPS OF M11)...
STEEPENING LL LAPSE RATES FROM AFTN HEATING...AND POTENTIAL FOR DRY
AIR ENTRAINMENT...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ISOLD SVR WX...THREAT BEING
LARGE HAIL AND WIND.  VIL OF THE DAY LOOKS TO BE IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD
OF 45...POSSIBLY AS LOW AS 40 IF COOLER TEMPS ABOVE 5H ADVECT ACROSS
THE CWA DURING THE AFTN.

GOING FCST LOOKS GOOD WITH CHC THREAT THE ENTIRE FCST AREA.

.RNK...
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

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NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059-
WVZ042>045-061000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
632 AM EDT TUE AUG 5 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...
WESTERN AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA...AS WELL AS NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING IN THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT OF NORTHWEST NORTH
CAROLINA...AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. THE THREAT OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ALSO INCLUDES THE SOUTHERN SHENANDOAH VALLEY AND
ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS OF VIRGINIA...AND THE GREENBRIER VALLEY OF
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.  THE PRIMARY THREAT IS LARGE HAIL...BUT
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION...SCATTERED
AREAS WILL SEE BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES. PLEASE SEE THE
LATEST SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK...SPSRNK...FOR DETAILS.

THIS PRODUCT CAN BE VIEWED ON THE BLACKSBURG OFFICE INTERNET PAGE AT
WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ER/RNK.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1022 AM EDT TUE AUG 05 2003

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

1220 AM    PATRICK SPRINGS           VA   60 MPH TSTM GUST
08/05/03   PATRICK                        LARGE TREE BLOWN DOWN
                                          ACROSS POWERLINE.REPORTED
                                          BY PATRICK COUNTY 911.

1230 AM    MONROE                    VA   60 MPH TSTM GUST
08/05/03   AMHERST                        LARGE TREE BLOWN DOWN
                                          ACROSS ROAD.REPORTED BY
                                          AMHERST SHERIFFS OFFICE.

NCZ003>006-019-020-VAZ018>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059-WVZ044-
045-052000-
SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
100 PM EDT TUE AUG 5 2003

...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

THE VIRGINIA FOOTHILLS...INTO THE PIEDMONT OF NORTH CAROLINA IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON.  SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SWEEPS
ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. SOME OF THESE STORMS
WILL HAVE THE CAPABILITY TO BECOME SEVERE PRODUCING PENNY SIZE OR
LARGER HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH.

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR
THIS EVENING.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.

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