Severe Thunderstorm Warning 206, NWS Blacksburg, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION TO DATE/CCF
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG, VA
244 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2003

SHORT TERM...TNGT-TUE...
CURRENTLY SEEING CONVECTION FORMING ALONG OLD OUTFLOW ACROSS THE FAR
W AND IN REGION OF BEST INSTAB PER LAPS CAPE/LI VALUES ATTM. RATHER
TRICKY POP FCST IN THE SHORT RANGE GIVEN FIRST WAVE EXITING TO THE
NE THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY SECOND MAIN S/W AND ASSOCD JET STREAK
LATER TNGT. QUESTIONS WITH WHETHER DYNAMICS WILL BE ABLE TO KEEP
WDSPRD COVERAGE GOING TNGT DESPITE LOSS OF HEATING AND HOW FAR SE
SHRA WILL PUSH AS THE SFC FRONT SAGS INTO NC TUE. GIVEN MODEL
FORCING AND RECENT TREND OF TSRA TO CONT OVERNGT...WILL LEAN TOWARD
LIKELY POPS W TNGT...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME TRAINING LATER AS FRONT
HANGS UP WAITING FOR S/W TO PASS. THIS ALSO SUPPORTED BY AXIS OF
PROGGED THETA GRADIENT OVERHEAD AND CONTD UPPER DIFLUENCE ALONG JET
STREAK. MAIN CORE OF LIFT SHOULD FINALLY MOVE E OF THE BLUE RIDGE
TUE WHILE SLOWLY EDGING THE 85H FRONT INTO THE SRN ZONES LATE.
APPEARS INSTAB LIMITED BY CLOUD COVER ALTHO THINK SRN ZONES WILL
BREAK THRU TUE AFTN SO PLAN TO HAVE BEST TSRA CHCS THERE. DRYING
ALOFT SHOULD HELP WRN ZONES SEE A DECREASE IN SHRA AFTER RESIDUAL
MORNING COVERAGE EXITS WITH WAVE. TEMPS A BIT LOWER TNGT PER
SHRA...THEN A GOOD 5-10 DEGS COOLER TUE GIVEN CLOUDS/SHRA AND SHIFT
IN SFC WINDS TO NE BEHIND FROPA.

TUE NGT-THU...5H TROF TO WEAKEN AND LIFT OUT TUE NGT LEAVING STALLED
WEAK SFC FRONT JUST S OF THE CWA INTO WED. WILL PROBABLY SEE ENOUGH
DRYING TO KEEP POPS TO A MIN EXCEPT FAR S INTO WED PENDING HOW FAR
INTO THE CAROLINAS DEEP RH FINALLY MAKES IT. OTRW PC N WITH MORE
CLOUDS/CHCY POPS S AND TEMPS GNRLY MID 70S NW TO 80S SE WED. ANY
DRYING HOWEVER TO BE SHORT AS NEXT STRONGER UPPER TROF BEGINS TO
APCH THU WHILE SWINGING MORE S/W ENERGY THRU THE REGION INTO FRI.
THINK BACKING ALOFT TO BRING A RETURN OF CHCY POPS THU WITH BEST
COVERAGE FRI PER TROF OVERHEAD.

EXTENDED...SIMILAR TO MOST OF THE SUMMER...5H TROF TO DIG TOWARD THE
REGION OVER THE WEEKEND WITH TIMING OF SUBSEQUENT S/W ENERGY
SPELLING MORE SHRA/TSRA. APPEARS PRECIP A BIT MORE DIURNAL GIVEN
COOL POOL NEARBY AND HEATING SO WILL OPT FOR MAINLY AFTN/EVE CHCY
POPS SAT-MON FOR NOW.

FCSTID =    9
ROA   69  80  62  81 /  60  60  30  10
LYH   69  79  62  79 /  50  60  30  10
DAN   71  83  67  83 /  40  60  40  30
BLF   62  73  57  75 /  60  60  10  10
LWB   62  72  56  76 /  70  50  10  10
BCB   65  76  58  75 /  60  60  20  10
TNB   65  74  57  77 /  60  60  20  20

.RNK...
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059-
WVZ042>045-281300-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
602 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...
WESTERN AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA...AS WELL AS NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

A COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST TODAY...MOVING THROUGH SOUTHEAST
WEST VIRGINIA LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA
AND NORTHWESTERN NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG AND IN ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS DURING
THE DAY AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES RISE.

MOST OF THE STORMS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH. HOWEVER...ONE OR TWO
OF THE THE STORMS MAY BRIEFLY REACH SEVERE LEVELS...AND PRODUCE PENNY
SIZED HAIL ALONG WITH WIND GUSTS APPROACHING 60 MPH.

ALTHOUGH THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL RAPIDLY
DIMINISH WITH THE APPROACH OF NIGHTFALL AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES
BEGIN TO COOL.

THIS PRODUCT CAN BE VIEWED ON THE BLACKSBURG OFFICE INTERNET PAGE AT
WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ER/RNK.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

WERT

NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059-
WVZ042>045-282100-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1100 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2003

...AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA INTO SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AS WELL AS NORTHWEST
NORTH CAROLINA...

A COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON...MOVING THROUGH
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA THIS EVENING...AND THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN
VIRGINIA AND NORTHWESTERN NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND IN ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT WILL BECOME MORE
NUMEROUS DURING THE AFTERNOON AS SURFACE HEATING OCCURS.

MOST OF THE STORMS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH. HOWEVER...ONE OR TWO
OF THE THE STORMS...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...
MAY BRIEFLY REACH SEVERE LEVELS...AND PRODUCE PENNY SIZED HAIL ALONG
WITH WIND GUSTS APPROACHING 60 MPH.

ALTHOUGH THE THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR TWO MAY ACCOMPANY
SOME OF THE STORMS THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS.

BECAUSE ANY POTENTIAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
ISOLATED IN NATURE...SKYWARN STORM SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT
ANTICIPATED AT THE PRESENT TIME.

WERT/JH