Severe Thunderstorm Warning 2, NWS Blacksburg, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG, VA
240 PM EDT SAT APR 26 2003

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

5H LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
COLD POOL ARD MINUS 18 WILL SLIDE ACROSS FA ENHANCING INSTABILITY.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE INDICATED BREAKS IN CLOUDS COVER.
KFCX 88D AT 18Z INDICATED SCT SHWRS AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND REGION.
WILL CONTINUE CONVECTION INTO THIS EVENING. MADE ADJUSTMENT ON POPS
ACCORDING CURRENT WSR-88D TRENDS. KEPT LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT IN
THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH ACROSS FA
ON SUNDAY...RESULTING IN SUNSHINE. I RAISED TEMPS A FEW DEGREES ON
SUNDAY WITH HIGH RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S IN NW TO MID 70S.

EXTENDED PERIODS...SUNDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY.

ECMWF WAS DISREGARDED BECAUSE OF ITS FEEDBACK TYPE SURFACE LOW OVER
THE COASTAL CAROLINAS FRI/DAY 6. TIMING AND POSITION OF THE BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT AND ITS ADVANCE NORTH IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS HAS BEEN
QUITE A FORECAST CHALLENGE. FOR MONDAY RAISED MAX TEMPS SEVERAL
DEGREES. MUCH DISCUSSION ON ISC CHAT REGARDING DIFFERENCE BETWEEN
ETA AND GFS...ESPECIALLY FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. ELECTED TO ADDED
THE MENTION OF SHOWERS TO TUESDAY WITH BNDRY DROPPING
SOUTH...SIMILAR TO THE GFS 06Z/00Z CANADIAN SOLUTIONS. RAISED MAX
AND MIN TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY...WANTED TO MENTION 80S EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS. ADJUSTED CLOUDS COVER IN SOUTHERN PORTIONS TO BLEND
BETTER WITH ISC CLUSTER GROUP. RAISED MAX TEMPS ON THURSDAY.
ALSO...I LIFTED LOWS TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER ADJUSTMENT WAS TO ADD THE CHC OF PCPN TO FRIDAY. ZONES WILL
BE OUT ARD 330 PM. HAVE A GOOD SATURDAY.

FCSTID =    7
PRELIM NUMBERS
ROA   50  73  46  78 /  30   0   0   0
LYH   50  73  46  78 /  30   0   0   0
DAN   52  75  50  80 /  30   0   0   0
BLF   45  70  43  74 /  40   0   0   0
LWB   43  68  42  73 /  40   0   0   0
BCB   47  70  45  75 /  20   0   0   0
TNB   45  70  44  74 /  20   0   0   0

.RNK...
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059-
WVZ042>045-261200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
505 AM EDT SAT APR 26 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...
WESTERN AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA...AS WELL AS NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE TODAY.

THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP TODAY MAY CONTAIN DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL.  THE GREATEST THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...INCLUDING MUCH OF EASTERN VIRGINIA AND
NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

NCZ003>006-019-020-VAZ032>035-043>047-058-059-262200-
SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1205 PM EDT SAT APR 26 2003

...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THIS
AFTERNOON...

AROUND MID DAY...AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED IN
SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA. AS THIS LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVES NORTHEAST
THIS AFTERNOON...LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME NORTHWEST AND
INCREASE IN SPEED.

IN ADVANCE OF THIS WIND SHIFT...THE ATMOSPHERE IS FAIRLY MOIST WITH
SURFACE DEW POINT TEMPERATURES MAINLY FROM 55 TO 60.

COLD AIR IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ASSOCIATED
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS COMBINED WITH SOME SUNSHINE AND
A MOIST ATMOSPHERE WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE THIS AFTERNOON. THE MAIN THREAT FROM SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR FORECAST UPDATES.

EMLAW

NCZ005-262030-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
346 PM EDT SAT APR 26 2003

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM HEADING TOWARD EDEN...

AT 3:46 PM DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM TRACKING
TOWARD EDEN.  IT SHOULD BE OVER EDEN BETWEEN 3:50 PM AND 4:30 PM.
PEOPLE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR VERY HEAVY
RAIN...HAIL UP TO A HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 50
MPH.

NOGUEIRA

NCZ004-005-262030-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
355 PM EDT SAT APR 26 2003

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM HEADING TOWARD EDEN...

AT 3:55 PM DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
FROM NEAR EDEN SOUTHWEST TO NEAR KING.  AS THESE STORMS TRACK
SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 25 MPH...PEOPLE IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS SHOULD
BE PREPARED FOR VERY HEAVY RAIN...HAIL UP TO A HALF INCH IN DIAMETER
AND WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 50 MPH.

NOGUEIRA