Severe Thunderstorm Warning 196, NWS Blacksburg, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG, VA
650 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2003

***UPDATED ZONES TO ADD 20 PCT CHC TSTMS IN NW NC MTNS AND FOOTHILLS
AND A FEW VA BORDER COUNTIES. ALSO RAISED MIN TEMPS A FEW DEGS.***

JJ

FEW CHANGES TO THE ZONE THIS PACKAGE.  INCREASING POPS MON NIGHT
WITH POSSIBLE MCS MOVING INTO WEST EDGE OF CWA.  LOWERED MAX TEMPS
WED WITH RAIN AND CLOUD.  THU...REDUCED POPS TO AM HOURS AS SYSTEM
MOVES OUT A LITTLE FASTER.  TEMPS FRI-SAT NEAR CLIMO.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST TONIGHT BRING
RETURN FLOW BY MORNING.  SOME VALLEY AREAS MAY DECOUPLE INTO THE
UPPER 50S...BUT FOR THE MOST PART...TEMPS WILL RANGE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S.

MON...MOSTLY SUNNY IN THE MORNING WITH INCREASE CLOUDS IN THE AFTN.
WARM AIR ALOFT WILL TRANSLATE INTO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS...MID TO UPPER
80S IN THE WEST AND 90 TO 95F IN THE EAST.  RETURN FLOW WILL ALSO
INCREASE HUMIDITY LEVEL FOR A MUGGY DAY.  PRIMARY FOCUS FOR TSRA
WILL BE HEATING UNDER A THETA-E RIDGE IN THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE
AFTN AND THE EAST MAY SEE AN ISOLATED STRAY STORM LATE IN THE AFTN.

MON NIGHT...MCS DEVELOPMENT IN THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
INTO SE WV AROUND MIDNIGHT...THEN SPREADING ACROSS THE MTNS DURING
THE NIGHT.  MODELS HAVE SYSTEM LOSING ITS IDENTITY CROSSING THE
MTNS.  LIKELY POPS IN SE WV WITH HIGH CHC IN SW VA AND NW NC MTNS.
LOWER CHC IN THE EAST. ESPC HAS A SLIGHT OUTLOOK FOR THE AREA.
DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL DEVELOP ARE POSSIBLE.

TUE...REMNANTS OF MCS AND LEFT-OVER BNDRY WILL PROMPT MORE TSRA
ACTIVE ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST DURING THE AFTN.  THERE IS ANOTHER
POSSIBILITY OF SVR WX TO DEVELOP.  SOME CONCERNS WITH HOW MUCH MON
NIGHTS ACTIVE WILL STABILIZE THE AMS IN THE MTNS.  EXPECTING AREAS
OF SW VA/NW NC AND EAST TO SEE A FAIR AMOUNT OF CONVECTION IN THE
AFTN.

EXTENDED...
TUE NIGHT...CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW IN S CAN/N GREAT LAKES REGION
WILL PUSH A STRONG COLD FRONT AS FAR SOUTH AS THE GULF COAST
STATES.  VERY UNUSUAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.  THEN A SFC WAVE
DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE TUES NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY.  WITH PCPN AND INCREASE CLOUD COVER...HAVE LOWERED
TEMPS TO RANGE ACROSS THE AREA FROM 70S IN THE WEST TO 75 TO 80 IN
THE EAST.  SVR WX ACTIVE IS POSSIBLE YET AGAIN WITH GOOD JET
DYNAMICS...HOWEVER...TIMING OF PCPN WILL EFFECT SVR WX OUTCOME.  THE
EARLIER THE PCPN MOVES IN...LESS LIKE TO SEE SVR WX...BUT FLOODING
COULD BE A CONCERN.  IF IT IS NOT ONE THING...IT IS ANOTHER.  WED
NIGHT...SYSTEM EXITS AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO MOVE THRU THE AREA
THU MORNING.  HAVE DECREASE POPS LATE WED NIGHT AND THU WITH FASTER
MOVING SYSTEM.  HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER WX TO RETURN THU AFTN AND
INTO THE WEEKEND.  TEMPS WILL REBOUND TO NORMAL LEVELS STARTING
FRIDAY.

ROA   68  90  70  85 /   0  10  50  70
LYH   66  91  69  85 /   0  10  40  70
DAN   67  94  71  88 /   0  10  30  70
BLF   64  82  66  74 /   0  30  70  70
LWB   57  83  62  73 /   0  30  70  70
BCB   63  87  66  79 /   0  20  60  70
TNB   62  85  66  77 /   0  30  50  70

.RNK...
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

RCS

NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059-
WVZ042>045-201245-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
556 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...
WESTERN AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA...AS WELL AS NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY.

THIS PRODUCT CAN BE VIEWED ON THE BLACKSBURG OFFICE INTERNET PAGE AT
WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ER/RNK.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT LATE MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY.  SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE
QUITE STRONG...MAINLY IN SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA AND EXTREME
WESTERN VIRGINIA LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...AND POSSIBLY IN ALL
LOCATIONS ON TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

SK