Severe Thunderstorm Warning 111, NWS Blacksburg, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG, VA
124 PM EDT SAT JUL 5 2003

OVERALL PERSISTENCE FCST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRES REMAINS
OFFSHORE WHILE MOISTURE CONTS TO DEEPEN THRU MON. SEEING A FEW TSRA
ACROSS THE SW RIDGES ATTM ASSOCD WITH DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND
EXPECT WILL SEE COVERAGE SPREAD TOWARD THE BLUE RIDGE THRU EARLY
EVE. THUS PLANNING ON CONTG A LOW CHC POP THIS EVE...THEN PC FOR
DEBRIS CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AS AREA REMAINS IN BETWEEN LIFT SOURCES TIL
LATE. WILL NUDGE TEMPS UP A BIT AGAIN TNGT GIVEN SOUPY ATMOS AND
SOME FOG AROUND.

SUNDAY-MON...MODELS CONT TREND OF LAST FEW RUNS IN BRINGING GULF
STATES S/W ENERGY NEWD SUNDAY AND INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NGT/MON. THIS
IN COMBO WITH SOME BACKING ALOFT SHOULD ACT TO INCREASE DEPTH OF RH
AND WITH HEATING EXPECT BETTER SHRA/TSRA COVERAGE SW SUNDAY...THEN
ELSW INTO MON. APPEARS NRN ZONES COULD STAY DRY TIL LATE SUNDAY AS
BEST LIFT REMAINS SW AND TO THE N WITH NEXT MCS. THUS PLAN ON MORE
CLOUDS SUNDAY-MON WITH DECENT TO HIGH CHC POPS. TEMPS NOT AS HOT
GIVEN CLOUDS AND MORE SHRA ALTHO WITH BEST FOCUS WEST COULD SEE ERN
ZONES GO CLOSER TO WARMER MAV.

EXTENDED...NRN STREAM LOOKS TO RE-ESTABLISH ESPCLY LATER IN THE WEEK
AS STRONG S/W TROF FOR JULY ATTEMPTS TO DRIVE A CD FRONT THRU THE
REGION. OTRW POPS LIKELY TO DECREASE SOME TUE WITH INIT WEAK TROF
SHUNTING DEEP RH S INTO THE CAROLINAS IN ASSOCIATION WITH UPPER FLOW
TURNING MORE W/NW. NEXT BEST CHC COMES WED AFTN AND SE THU WITH RH
RETURNING N AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND COOLING/FALLING HEIGHTS.
THEREFORE LIKE HIGH CHC POPS ESPCLY WED THEN MUCH DRIER COOLER THU
NGT THRU SAT FOR NOW.

FCSTID =    9
ROA   71  89  70  86 /  20  30  30  30
LYH   68  88  69  85 /  20  30  30  30
DAN   71  89  72  88 /  20  30  30  40
BLF   65  78  64  80 /  30  40  40  30
LWB   62  77  63  79 /  20  40  40  30
BCB   65  82  63  80 /  20  30  30  30
TNB   64  78  64  78 /  30  50  50  40

.RNK...
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

JH/JDS

NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059-
WVZ042>045-052215-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
621 AM EDT SAT JUL 5 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...
WESTERN AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA...AS WELL AS NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
THIS AFTERNOON WITH HEAT INDICES NEAR 100 FOR THE CITIES OF ROANOKE...
LYNCHBURG...DANVILLE...AND MARTINSVILLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

VERY WARM AND HUMID WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.  HEAT INDICES MAY APPROACH 100 DEGREES IN AND AROUND THE
LARGER URBAN AREAS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.