Flash Flood Warning 51, NWS Blacksburg, VA

000 
WGUS71 KRNK 082057
FFSRNK
WVC055-082145-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
453 PM EDT FRI AUG 8 2003

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES UNTIL
545 PM EDT...

  EASTERN MERCER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA

EVEN THOUGH THE HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED ACROSS EASTERN MERCER COUNTY...
RUNOFF FROM EARLIER RAIN COULD STILL PRODUCE FLOODING IN THE 
VICINITY OF PETTRY... SPEEDWAY... AND ATHENS WHERE BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2 
INCHES OF RAIN FELL BETWEEN 130 PM AND 300 PM.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. VEHICLES CAUGHT IN RISING WATER SHOULD BE ABANDONED. MOVE TO
HIGHER GROUND.

RELAY YOUR REPORTS OF FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY
CALLING TOLL FREE...1...8 6 6...2 1 5...4 3 2 4.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG, VA
1055 AM EDT FRI AUG 8 2003

CONCERN AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.
FLOOD WATCH IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE FOR AREAS SOUTH AND WEST OF THE
ROANOKE VALLEY WHERE RECENT RAINS HAVE RESULTED IN VERY LOW FFG
VALUES...1HR GUIDANCE 1.25 OR LESS.  THIS AREA IS ALSO CLOSER TO THE
UPPER TROF AXIS WHICH IS PROMOTING SLOWER OR NEARLY STATIONARY
MOVEMENT OF ANY DEEP CONVECTION ONCE IT FORMS.

THERE ARE TWO AREAS TO WATCH TODAY FOR POTENTIAL HEAVY RAINFALL.
ONE IS THE MOUNTAINS S AND W OF ROA WHERE NEARLY STATIONARY DEEP
CONVECTION WILL BUBBLE UP FROM THE AFTN HEATING.  THE OTHER IS THE
SFC TROF WHICH IS JUST EAST OF THE CWA...WHERE RDU IS HAVING
PROBLEMS NOW.  THIS SFC TROF WHICH RUNS FROM AKQ TO RDU HAS BECOME
THE FOCUS FOR LL MOISTURE POOLING...SFC DEWPTS IN THE L70S.
ALOFT...THIS REGION IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE 25/30H
JET...WITH UNIFORM WINDS ABOVE 85H.  WITH LITTLE MOVEMENT OF UPPER
TROF POSITION TODAY...TRAINING DEEP CONVECTION WILL BE A PROBLEM
THERE.

PWATS THE LAST 24 HOURS HAVE COME UP...RNK 1.6 AND GSO 1.8.  DEPTH
OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS ALSO INCREASED 85H DEWPTS UP 3-5 DEG C
FROM 12Z THU...NOW SHOWING 14 DEG C PLUS.

IN A NUTSHELL...CURRENT FLOOD WATCH LOOKS GOOD.  MAY HAVE TO EXPAND
IT TO INCLUDE MORE EASTERN COUNTIES IF UPPER TROF BECOMES MORE
NEGATIVELY TILTED...FORCING THE LL BOUNDARY WHICH IS OVER AKQ/RDUS
AREA FARTHER WEST. IF THIS OCCURS...THREAT FOR TRAINING DEEP
CONVECTION WILL INCREASE IN THE DANVILLE AND LYNCHBURG AREAS.  WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

.RNK...
NC...FLOOD WATCH FOR TODAY AND TNGT FOR ZONES
NCZ001>004...NCZ018>020.

VA...FLOOD WATCH FOR TODAY AND TNGT FOR ZONES
VAZ007...VAZ009>013...VAZ015>017...VAZ032>033...VAZ043.

WV...FLOOD WATCH FOR TODAY AND TNGT FOR ZONES WVZ042>044.

11

NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059-
WVZ042>045-091000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
601 AM EDT FRI AUG 8 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...
WESTERN AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA...AS WELL AS NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE COUNTY
WARNING AREA. HEAVY RAIN OVER THE PAST THREE DAYS HAS SATURATED THE
GROUND IN THE WATCH AREA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME
NUMEROUS THIS AFTERNOON AND HEAVY RAIN IS ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED WITH
ANY OF THE STORMS. RAINFALL RATES UP TO TWO INCHES PER HOUR ARE POSSIBLE.

SEE WBCFFARNK FOR MORE DETAILS. THIS PRODUCT CAN BE VIEWED ON THE
BLACKSBURG OFFICE INTERNET PAGE AT WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ER/RNK.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

AMS