Severe Thunderstorm Warning 54, NWS Charleston, WV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
315 PM EDT SUN JUN 8 2003

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315 PM EDT SUN JUN 8 2003

.TONIGHT AND MONDAY...
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH SOME STORMS
POSSIBLY PRODUCING LARGE HAIL OR DAMAGING WINDS. SHOULD SEE GOOD
CLEARING BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH DRY WEATHER AND LOTS OF SUNSHINE
EXPECTED ON MONDAY...WITH A BIT MORE CUMULUS IN THE NORTH.

.MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE MOST OF THIS PERIOD WITH DRY WEATHER AND
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.  FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES LATER TUESDAY
NIGHT FROM THE NORTHWEST. ETA HAS THE FRONT JUST TO THE WEST OF OUR
CWA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WHILE THE GFS CUTS IT THROUGH THE HEART OF
OUR CWA. EVEN WITH A COMPROMISE SOLUTION WHICH WOULD PUT FRONT ON
OUR WESTERN DOORSTEP BY 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING...THERE WILL BE GOOD
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION AFTER 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY NORTH
AND WEST. FRONT THEN STALLS WEST TO EAST ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN OR
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA...CONTINUING THE GOOD CHANCE OF
CONVECTION DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTH.

.THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
THIS PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY ON AND OFF CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS A FRONT MEANDERS OVER THE FORECAST AREA.  EVEN
THOUGH WET CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE...TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL
READINGS SHOULD PREVAIL.

.RLX...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
VA...NONE.
KY...NONE.

.END/RPY/JMV/JSH

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1040 AM EDT SUN JUN 8 2003

AREAS THAT WERE CLEAR EARLY ARE NOW MOSTLY CLOUDY...SO FEEL THAT
CUMULUS THIS AFTERNOON WOULD BE BETTER CHARACTERIZED WITH MOSTLY
CLOUDY.

.END/RPY

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334 AM EDT SUN JUN 8 2003

...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

QUIET...FOGGY MORNING CURRENTLY.  FEW SHOWERS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD
ALONG THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING...ON NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF MID LEVEL WAVE IN THE CAROLINAS.  ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE
TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE.

QUESTION FOR TODAY IS SEVERE POTENTIAL FROM FRONT/EXPECTED SQUALL
LINE LATE TODAY/THIS EVENING.  GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE TODAY SHOULD
ALLOW INSTABILITY TO BUILD...EXPECT CAPES BETWEEN 1000-2000 J/KG.
SHOWERS MAY FORM IN NORTHERN MOUNTAINS FIRST...WITH FAVORABLE
SOUTHEAST FLOW AT SURFACE AND SOME 850 MOISTURE CONVERGENCE.  STORMS
BEGIN TO FIRE TO THE WEST BY EARLY AFTERNOON IN HEATING...OF COURSE
BECOMING MORE CONCENTRATED ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. UNIDIRECTIONAL
WIND PROFILES POINT TO BOW ECHO/WIND GUST POTENTIAL IN
STORMS...ALTHOUGH WIND FIELD IS NOT TERRIBLY STRONG.  THINK BEST
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE IS MAINLY WEST OF I-79...IDEAL FORCING MAY BE
TOO FAR NORTH FOR MUCH SEVERE ACTIVITY FURTHER EAST THIS EVENING.
THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THESE STORMS WILL BE MOVING FAIRLY
QUICKLY...AND SO NO WATER PROBLEMS ARE FORESEEN.  MAV TEMPS LOOK
BEST...EVEN OVER WET GROUND.

LAST OF SHOWERS/STORMS EXIT BY MIDNIGHT. CLOUDS CLEAR...BUT NOT
EXPECTING AS FOGGY A NIGHT TONIGHT AS GRADIENT SHOULD KEEP WINDS UP
FOR A LITTLE BIT.  KEPT GOING MIN TEMP GRID WITH MINOR TWEAKS.

MONDAY LOOKS NICE...BUT STILL EXPECT SOME CU CLOUDS AS 850 MOISTURE
REMAINS. SURFACE RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD AND UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE
ZONAL.  THIS POINTS TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES...MOS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT AND FOLLOWED CLOSELY.

CONTINUED DRY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR
POSSIBLY A FEW SHOWERS SLIPPING IN LATE TUESDAY IN FUTURE MODEL
RUNS.  WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE WARMEST DAY IN SOME TIME AS 850 TEMPS
CLIMB TO 14-15 DEGREE LEVEL.

TUESDAY NIGHT >

MOISTURE INCREASES TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
SLIPPING SE FROM THE GREAT LAKES.  THE FRONTAL ZONE COULD EASILY
STALL IN OUR VICINITY BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.  SO A
NORTH/SOUTH MOISTURE GRADIENT SETTING UP BY THURSDAY.  WILL INCREASE
12 HOUR POPS TUE NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.  INCREASED MIN TEMP ON TUESDAY
NIGHT FIGURING ON ONLY COOLING FROM POSSIBLE PREFRONTAL SHOWERS.
WED-FRI PATTERN MAY BE TROUBLESOME BUT DEPENDS ON INSTABILITY AND
HOURLY RATES.

CL + BATTY

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9 PM EDT SAT JUN 7 2003

CLOUD DECK HAS BEEN SHOWING TREND OF LIFTING AND BREAKING AND HAVE
BEEN A FEW HOLES IN CLOUDS AS WELL.  AS SYSTEM MOVES FURTHER OFF TO
THE EAST SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT IS WEAKENING AND THINK WITH WARM LOW
LEVEL TEMPS AND NO FORCING...CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO BREAK UP DURING
EVENING HOURS ALLOWING FOR AREAS OF DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP.  CURRENT
FORECAST HAS GOOD HANDLE ON THINGS AND WILL ONLY UPDATE TO REMOVE
EVENING POPS.  TEMPS LOOK ON TRACK AND WILL LEAVE AS IS.

CORP OF ENGINEERS AT SUMMERSVILLE DAM HAS INFORMED US THAT THEY WILL
BE OPENING VALVES AND RELEASING UP TO 10000 CFS UNTIL THE GAULEY
RIVER AT CRAIGSVILLE CRESTS.  THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO LAST LONG BUT
MAY CAUSE SOME QUICK RISES DOWNSTREAM AT BELVA AND RICHWOOD THIS
EVENING.

HC

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087-VAZ003-004-WVZ005>011-
013>020-024>040-046-047-090119-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
319 PM EDT SUN JUN 8 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEASTERN
OHIO...NORTHEASTERN KENTUCKY...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...AND MOST OF WEST
VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY STRONG DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL IS INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING FOR
SOUTHEAST OHIO...NORTHEAST KENTUCKY...AND WESTERN WEST VIRGINIA...

STRONG DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE
BECOMING MORE LIKELY WITH SOME OF THESE STORMS.

THE STORMS WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS WEST VIRGINIA BETWEEN 6 PM AND
MIDNIGHT...BUT WILL LIKELY DECREASE IN INTENSITY AFTER 8 PM.

* SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT..SEE WWUS81 KRLX - SPSRLX FOR DETAILS *

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

VICTORY

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087-VAZ003-004-WVZ005>010-
013>017-024>026-033-034-082200-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
3:10 PM EDT SUN JUN 8 2003

HERE IS A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY STRONG DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL IS INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON FOR SOUTHEAST
OHIO...NORTHEAST KENTUCKY...AND WESTERN WEST VIRGINIA...

AT 3:10 PM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR SHOWED A DEVELOPING
SQUALL LINE EXTENDING FROM CLEVELAND IN OHIO...TO COLUMBUS...TO
CINCINNATI...TO LEXINGTON IN KENTUCKY. THE LINE WAS MOVING EAST AT
NEAR 40 MPH.  CURRENT MOTION WOULD BRING THE SQUALL LINE INTO OUR
COUNTY WARNING AREA OF SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHEAST KENTUCKY BETWEEN
4 PM AND 5 PM...AND BE ON A LINE FROM PERRY COUNTY IN OHIO SOUTHWARD
TO CARTER COUNTY IN KENTUCKY BY 5 PM. THE SQUALL LINE WILL LIKELY
PROGRESS INTO WEST VIRGINIA BETWEEN 6 PM AND 7 PM...AND BE ON A LINE
FROM WASHINGTON COUNTY OHIO SOUTHWARD THROUGH KANAWHA COUNTY AND
MCDOWELL COUNTIES IN WEST VIRGINIA BY 7 PM. STRONG DAMAGING
WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE BECOMING MORE LIKELY
WITH SOME OF THESE STORMS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.

.END/JMV