Severe Thunderstorm Warning 48, NWS Charleston, WV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1050 AM EDT TUE MAY 27 2003

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1050 AM EDT TUE MAY 27 2003

RADAR AND SATELLITE SHOW WAVE MOVING FROM OH INTO WV. WILL UPDATE
FORECAST TO UP POPS IN AREAS IN FRONT OF THE WAVE.

.RLX...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
VA...NONE.
KY...NONE.

.END/RPY

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240 AM EDT TUE MAY 27 2003

...TODAY AND TONIGHT...
PESKY UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BEGIN A SLOW DIVE SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE
REGION.  WILL KEEP MENTION OF DAYTIME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE FORECAST AREA.  DUE TO LIGHT LOW LEVEL WINDS...ANY THUNDERSTORMS
THAT DO DEVELOP COULD BE SLOW MOVERS.  NOT MANY CHANGES NEEDED IN
THE FIRST 24 HOURS.

...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WHICH WILL COMBINE
WITH A VORTMAX.  THE VORTMAX WILL EXIT THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE
AREA WHILE ANOTHER VORTMAX AND UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THURSDAY.  THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE REASONABLE.  NORTHWEST FLOW AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE
AREA ON FRIDAY.  A SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY
SATURDAY...CONTINUE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  THE
FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILD INTO THE REGION.  THE DRY FORECAST SEEM REASONABLE FOR SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.  THE TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE BALLPARK.

.END/ KF/ELW

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940 PM EDT MON MAY 26 2003

AGAIN DEBATE CONTINUES WHETHER OR NOT CLOUDS BREAK UP.  PLENTY OF
MOISTURE IN THE LOWEST 8KFT AND NOT MUCH WAA AS LIGHT NORTHERLY
WINDS PERSIST.  OVC CONDITIONS OVER THE COAL FIELDS HANGING TUFF.
LATEST FCST SOUNDINGS FROM THE 40KM RUC DEPICT NEARLY SATURATED
CONDITIONS BETWEEN 7-9KFT...AND EVEN IF BREAKS OCCUR SHARP INVERSION
AT H95 TO GENERATE IFR CIGS.  AT THIS POINT WILL UPDATE FORECAST TO
INCLUDE VARIABLE CLOUDS AND BUMP TEMPS UP.  REST ON TRACK.

99
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252 PM EDT MON MAY 26 2003

TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN KEEPING SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY DROPPING
ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SOUTH OF OUR CWA LATE TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY.  HOWEVER...MAIN SOUTHEASTERN CANADIAN VORTEX DIVES SOUTH
BEHIND THIS SHORT WAVE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY ON TUESDAY.  THERE WILL
BE QUITE SOME COLD AIR ALOFT AND SOME MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR MAINLY
AFTERNOON SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT ENOUGH
CLEARING TONIGHT FOR SOME FOG IN FAVORED AREAS...THEN FOR SOME
HEATING ON TUESDAY TO DESTABILIZE FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION. GUIDANCE
TEMPERATURES VERY CLOSE AND LOOK REASONABLE.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...
OHIO VALLEY SHORT WAVE EXITS FIRST THING TUESDAY EVENING...JUST AS
MAIN UPPER LOW OVER LAKES SETTLES SOUTHWARD INTO AREA.

THIS UPPER LOW EXITS WEDNESDAY...ITS PASSAGE DURING WRONG TIME OF
DAY W/R THUNDERSTORMS BUT WILL KEEP EASTERN ZONES WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.  NEXT SYSTEM APPEARS QUICKER STILL AND WILL INTRODUCE
POPS BY THURSDAY MORNING...UP TO 50 PERCENT WEST BY THEN.

FRONT PLOWS THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY WITH GENEROUS WRAP AROUND OVER
ABOUT ALL OF AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON GIVEN SOUTHERN TRACK OF
SYSTEM.  COULD SEE A MORE NORTHERN TRACK RESULTING IN MORE OF A DRY
SLOT AROUND MIDDAY THURSDAY BUT TOO FAST/NARROW OF A FEATURE TO
RESOLVE AT THIS DISTANCE.

THUNDERSTORMS WITH FRONT BASED ON STRENGTH OF UPPER DYNAMICS BUT
TIME OF DAY COULD PRECLUDE SEVERE.  STRONG WINDS BEHIND FRONT WITH
GOOD GRADIENT AND ALIGNMENT IN THE VERTICAL.  SHOWER CHANCE WELL
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT ON THIS STRONG WRAP AROUND FLOW.

NO LARGE DEVIATIONS FROM MOS.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH PATTERN THROUGH EXTENDED.
SHOULD SEE A DRY DAY ON FRIDAY AS AREA FALLS UNDER UPPER RIDGE ON
HEELS OF EXITING SYSTEM.  COLD FRONT TO PASS THROUGH REGION ON
SATURDAY BRINGING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS UPPER LOW
DIGS INTO GREAT LAKES REGION ONCE AGAIN.  UPPER LOW SPINS OVER LAKES
INTO MONDAY AND CWA IS ON SOUTHERN PERIPHERY.  HAVE PLAYED DRY
FORECAST SUN/MON AS THERE IS LITTLE FORCING WITH UPPER LOW AND
UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHAT MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE.  HAVE PLAYED MORE
CLOUDS AND COOLER TEMPS AS A RESULT.

JMV/TRM/HC
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1030 AM EDT MON MAY 26 2003

UPDATED FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON TO KEEP LOTS OF CLOUDS MOST AREAS
AND THUS LOWER MAXES A BIT.  12Z SOUNDINGS FROM ILN AND PIT SHOW
LOTS OF LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.  ANY HEATING THAT OCCURS
SHOULD ALLOW CLOUDS TO QUICKLY FILL BACK IN UNDER DECENT TEMPERATURE
INVERSION AS SHOWN ON ILN SOUNDING AND FORECAST MESOETA SOUNDINGS.
WILL ALSO KEEP SPRINKLES IN CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF WEST
VIRGINIA.

JMV
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KYZ101>103-105-OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087-VAZ003-004-WVZ005>011-
013>020-024>040-046-047-271500-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
240 AM EDT TUE 27 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEASTERN
OHIO...NORTHEASTERN KENTUCKY...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...AND MOST OF WEST
VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

KF

KYZ105-VAZ003-004-WVZ005-013>016-018-024>029-033>038-271800-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1206 PM EDT TUE MAY 27 2003

HERE IS A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED WITH THE HEATING OF THE DAY.
THE MOST CONCENTRATED AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS AT NOON WAS IN THE FORM
OF A SCATTERED LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR GLENVILLE IN GILMER
COUNTY...SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH SISSONVILLE IN KANAWHA COUNTY...AND
THROUGH LOUISA IN LAWRENCE COUNTY OF KENTUCKY. THIS DEVELOPING LINE
IS EXPECTED TO BE THE FOCUS OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON
AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST AT 15 TO 20 MPH. MANY OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL VERY LIKELY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS...BUT MOST OF
THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW SEVERE LEVELS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.

KYZ105-VAZ003-004-WVZ005-013>016-018-024>029-033>038-271800-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1240 PM EDT TUE MAY 27 2003

HERE IS A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...

AT 12:35 PM THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED INTO A LINE WHICH EXTENDED
FROM FROM JUST SOUTHEAST OF ARNOLDSBURG IN CALHOUN COUNTY...THEN
SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH CHARLESTON...AND THEN TO THE SOUTH OF LOUISA
IN LAWRENCE COUNTY OF KENTUCKY. THIS DEVELOPING LINE WILL BE THE
MAIN FOCUS OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AS IT MOVES
SOUTHEAST AT AROUND 15 MPH. MANY OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL VERY
LIKELY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL...GUSTY WINDS AND VERY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...BUT MOST OF THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW
SEVERE LEVELS.  HOWEVER...PONDING OF WATER IN LOW AREAS ARE POSSIBLE
AND PERSONS ARE URGED TO EXERCISE CAUTION. ALREADY THERE HAVE BEEN
NUMEROUS REPORTS OF SMALL HAIL WITH THESE STORMS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.