Severe Thunderstorm Warning 31, NWS Charleston, WV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1012 AM EDT SAT MAY 10 2003

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1012 AM EDT SAT MAY 10 2003

...MORNING UPDATE DISCUSSION...

WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON.  ONLY SMALL CHANGES
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME...PRIMARILY TO TAKE OUT WORDING OF EVOLVING
CHANGES IN THE AFTERNOON.  WILL ALSO INCREASE CHANCE OF PRECIP
ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION.  CONTINUE TO MONITOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG WITH FLOODING.  SO FAR THIS MORNING MOST
OF THE ACTIVITY HAS REMAINED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE COUNTY
WARNING AREA.

.RLX...
WV...FLOOD WATCH FOR TODAY FOR ZONES
WVZ009>011...WVZ017>020...WVZ028>032...WVZ038>040...WVZ047.

VA...NONE.
KY...NONE.

OH...FLOOD WATCH FOR TODAY FOR ZONES OHZ066>067...OHZ075>076.

.END/ KF

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317 AM EDT SAT MAY 10 2003

TODAY AND TONIGHT...
REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC CONTINUES TO SHOW A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING EAST TOWARD THE REGION.  00 UTC MODELS SEEM TO
HAVE A HANDLE ON THIS CONVECTION.  THIS CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE/DEVELOP EASTWARD ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE
FORECAST AREA.  FLASH FLOOD VALUES ACROSS THIS AREA ARE QUITE LOW
WITH 3 HOUR FFG VALUES LESS THAN 1 INCH COMMON.  FFA WAS ALREADY
ISSUED AND BECAUSE OF THE REASONS POINTED OUT ABOVE...SEE NO REASON
TO DROP IT.

SUPERCELL STORM MOVED SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR COUNTIES...JUST SOUTH OF
PREVIOUS FFA AREA ON FRIDAY WITH HEAVY RAINFALL INDICATED BY RADAR.
HAVE ADDED THE COUNTIES IMPACTED BY THIS STORM TO FFA.

OTHERWISE...HAVE MADE ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO PREVIOUS
GRIDS/FORECAST.

SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
ROLLED WITH SLOWER META SOLUTION ON TIMING OF FRONT SUNDAY PER HPC.
USED PETOPOP TOOL TO FINE TUNE TIMING IN POP AND WEATHER FIELDS.
THIS CUTS THINGS OFF FROM THE WEST QUICKLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
IMPRESSIVE FRONT EXCEPT WRONG TIME OF DAY...BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE
WEST WITH 50KT PLUS H85 FEED AND APPRECIABLE CAPE FOR MORNING.
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD LOSE PUNCH AS THEY PUSH EAST DURING MIDDAY
HOURS PER TIME OF DAY AND LOSS OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN RESPONSE
TO LEE TROUGHING...AT LEAST UNTIL THEY GET EAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

WRAP AROUND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STILL SHOWN FOR LATER SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY.  PETOPOP TOOL AGAIN NOT BAD HERE WITH MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS...SAME FOR SKYFMMODELRH TOOL SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NO FURTHER CHANGES TO EXTENDED AT THIS TIME AS NEW GFS RAISES EVEN
MORE QUESTIONS WITH NEXT SYSTEM...SHOWN A DAY FASTER NOW.

ADJUSTED HIGH MONDAY DOWN A LITTLE...TOWARD NEW MAV.  OTHERWISE ON
OR CLOSE TO GUIDANCE.

JSH/TRM
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1015 PM EDT FRI MAY 9 2003

FOR EVENING UPDATE...WILL DROP THUNDERSTORM WATCHES AS REMAINING
CELLS CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND MOVE OUT OF THE REGION...BUT NOT BEFORE
A LONG LIVED SUPER CELL DROPPED HAIL ACROSS A 7 COUNTY SWATH.  FOR
THE REST OF THE NIGHT...EXPECT MOSTLY DRY WEATHER BUT HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AS DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S SEEM
TO HAVE SETTLED IN WITH THE WARM FRONT TO THE NORTH.  HAVE DROPPED
POPS IN THE EAST WHILE LEAVING 30S IN THE WEST FOR CONVECTION MOVING
EAST...WHICH MAY ARRIVE AROUND SUNRISE.  ALSO...RAISED TEMPS IN THE
EAST AS DEW POINTS ARE MUCH HIGHER THAN FORECAST...WHICH SHOULD NOT
ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL AS FAR AS PREVIOUS THOUGHT.

.END/ESS
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615 PM EDT FRI MAY 9 2003
UPDATING ZONES TO ADD COUNTIES IN SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER
322.  WITH DEWPOINTS HAVING CLIMBED INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S
THIS AFTERNOON AND ADDITIONAL AFTERNOON HEATING...CONDITIONS HAVE
BECOME UNSTABLE AND SEVERE STORMS ARE A POSSIBILITY THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS.

ESS
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335 PM EDT FRI MAY 9 2003

TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

WIDESPREAD REPORTS OF 1.25 TO 2.00 INCHES ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF
AREA WITH 0.77 INCHES OF RAIN IN 36 MINUTES AT HTS.  ACTIVITY
STARTING TO POP ALONG BOUNDARIES LEFT OVER FROM MORNING MCS.
THINKING IS WITH GOOD SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TO TAP...LINE SHOULD FILL IN ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-64.  FOG
ALSO A GOOD BET IN DEEPER VALLEYS AS WINDS GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

SATURDAY 12Z NCEP CHAIN AT A CONSENSUS BRINGING A COMPLEX UP FROM
THE SOUTHWEST FROM MID-MORNING ON.  SO INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY OVER
ALL AREAS.  PWATS REMAIN AROUND 1.8 INCHES AND GIVEN ABUNDANT
MOISTURE AND DEEP VERTICAL MOTION...WILL HOIST A FFA FOR A UNI-EKN
LINE SATURDAY.  3HR FFG VALUES AROUND AN 1.5 AND THAT/S DEFINITELY A
POSSIBILITY AS ATMOSPHERE REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM TODAY.

OPTED FOR WARMER FWC NUMBERS SATURDAY AND UPPED A NUMBERS A BIT
TONIGHT WITH HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS EXPECTED.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...
COLD FRONT FINALLY ROTATES THROUGH REGION EARLY SUNDAY AS SURFACE
LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.  RESIDUAL CLOUDINESS AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN
TIER OF COUNTIES.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

BASICALLY DRY TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY THOUGH DID ADD SLIGHT
CHANCE SHOWERS IN THE WRAP AROUND UPSLOPE FLOW NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
TUESDAY.  HAVE TEMPERATURES MARGINAL FOR FROST NORTHERN MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS.

MUCH TIMING UNCERTAINTY WITH SYSTEM LATE IN THE WEEK AND ROLLED WITH
LOW CHANCE POPS.  MORE OR LESS ON OR CLOSE TO MOS.

FWM/DB/TRM
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KYZ101>103-105-OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087-VAZ003-004-WVZ005>011-
013>020-024>040-046-047-102223-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1231 PM EDT SAT MAY 10 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEASTERN
OHIO...NORTHEASTERN KENTUCKY...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...AND MOST OF WEST
VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...

NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING THE AREA TODAY WILL PRODUCE HEAVY
RAINFALL...ALONG WITH STRONG WINDS AND HAIL. SOME OF THE STRONGEST
THUNDERSTORMS COULD CONTAIN DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL.  WITH THE
GROUND RATHER SATURATED...HEAVY RAINFALL FROM ANY THUNDERSTORM WILL
CAUSE FLOODING IN A FEW KEY AREAS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF WEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEASTERN OHIO.

* TORNADO WATCH..............SEE WWUS61 CLESLSOH AND SDFSLSKY FOR
DETAILS *

* FLOOD WATCH................SEE WGUS61 KRLX - FFARLX FOR DETAILS *

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE SUNDAY...AS A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA. AGAIN...THUNDERSTORMS COULD REACH SEVERE LIMITS
AND/OR CAUSE ADDITIONAL FLOODING PROBLEMS.THE COOLER AND DRIER AIR
MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT...WILL BRING AN END TO THIS RECENT
STRETCH OF SEVERE WEATHER...WITH TRANQUILITY ON TAP FOR SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NEW WORK WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WEST VIRGINIA
728 AM EDT SAT MAY 10 2003

THE FOLLOWING REPORTS ARE UNOFFICIAL AND MAY HAVE BEEN COLLECTED
FROM UNTRAINED SOURCES

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0711 AM    ASHLAND                   KY   1.25 INCH HAIL
05/10/03   BOYD                           EVENT OCCURRED BETWEEN
                                          0656 AM AND 0711 AM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WEST VIRGINIA
1052 AM EDT SAT MAY 10 2003

THE FOLLOWING REPORTS ARE UNOFFICIAL AND MAY HAVE BEEN COLLECTED
FROM UNTRAINED SOURCES

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

1030 AM    SUTTON                    WV   FLOODING
05/10/03   BRAXTON                        EVENT TIME UNKNOWN
                                          SOMETIME BEFORE 1030 AM
                                          STREAMS OVER ROADS OR
                                          IN BUILDINGS.

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087-VAZ003-004-WVZ005>011-
013>020-024>040-046-047-102300-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1256 PM EDT SAT MAY 10 2003

HERE IS A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...

THE TREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS TODAY.  THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER IS HIGHEST AROUND
THE OHIO RIVER AND WESTWARD.  THIS INCLUDES SOUTHEASTERN OHIO AND
NORTHEASTERN KENTUCKY.  THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION...INCLUDING WEST VIRGINIA AND
WESTERN PORTIONS OF VIRGINIA.

THE GREATEST THREATS FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE STRONG DAMAGING
WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.  FLOODING WILL ALSO
BE A THREAT FROM THESE HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS.  IN THIS
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE...A TORNADO WILL NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT
HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/ER/RLX