Severe Thunderstorm Warning 124, NWS Charleston, WV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
935 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2003

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935 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2003

WILL UPDATE FOR WINDS TONIGHT AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.RLX...
WV...NONE.
VA...NONE.
KY...NONE.
OH...NONE.

.END/RPY

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420 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2003

UPDATING TO REMOVE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FROM EXTREME NORTHWEST
COUNTIES.

CL

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332 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2003

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

WATCH CONTINUES TILL 6PM THIS EVENING...ONLY EXPECT A FEW STORMS AT
MOST ACROSS THE WATCH AREA.

HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL OVERNIGHT AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY SINKS VERY
SLOWLY SOUTHWARD.  MCS SYSTEMS THAT MISSED US LAST NIGHT MAY SCRAPE
OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES TONIGHT...STICKING WITH CHANCE POPS TO THE
NORTH AND SLIGHT CHANCE TO THE SOUTH.  WOULD EXPECT SEVERE THREAT TO
DIMINISH WITH STABILIZATION OVERNIGHT.

AS BOUNDARY SINKS SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY PRECIP CHANCES WILL FOLLOW IT.
CAP WEAKENS TOMORROW AND LOOKS TO BREAK TOMORROW AFTERNOON ACROSS
ALL AREAS.  WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE FAR SOUTH AND A 30 OR 40
POP ELSEWHERE.  SEVERE POTENTIAL TOMORROW REMAINS...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NORTH...WITH HIGH INSTABILITY AND DECENT WIND SHEAR.

TEMP GRIDS MAINLY JUST TWEAKED...DECENT AGREEMENT WITH MOS AND ISC.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WEAKENING ACROSS NRN
WV AND SE OH THURSDAY MORNING.  THE FRONT SHOULD THEN WEAKEN AS THE
NEXT SYSTEM FROM THE PLAINS MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES LATE
THURS NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI MORNING.  THE WARM FRONT SHOULD REFORM
NORTHWARD.  FOR THURSDAY...MOISTURE SHOULD BE DEEPER FROM HTS AND
CRW SWD.  THUS WOULD EXPECT A BETTER CHANCE FOR DIURNAL SHOWERS IN
THAT AREA WHILE FURTHER NORTH...A LITTLE DRIER AIR ALOFT MAY HELP
KEEP SHOWERS MORE ISOLATED.

BY FRIDAY...NEXT SYSTEM BEGINS TO APPROACH WITH DEEPER MOISTURE
MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH.  BUT WITH THE FRONT STILL TO THE
WEST...LIFTING MECHANISM IS STILL ABSENT FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION.
STILL EXPECT DECENT DIURNAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS HOWEVER.  THE
MODEL DO DIFFER A LITTLE ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT FOR FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT.  THE GFS IS VERY AGGRESSIVE AND LOOKS TO BE ON THE
FAST SIDE BY 6 TO 12 HOURS.  THE ETA TIMING AT 84 HOURS LOOKS A
LITTLE BETTER.

FOR TEMPERATURES...GUIDANCE FAIRLY WELL CLUSTER AROUND PREVIOUS
FORECAST NUMBERS...THUS VERY LITTLE CHANGED IN TEMPERATURES THROUGH
FRIDAY.  THE MAV NUMBERS WERE PREFERRED OVERALL.  FOR FRIDAY DID
RAISE VALUES CLOSER TO GUIDANCE...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT AS IT COULD BE COOLER.  FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...KEEP READINGS
ABOVE GUIDANCE WITH SLOWER FRONTAL TIMING.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

RIDGING OVER ATLANTIC OFF SE COAST ALONG WITH TROUGH DROPPING DOWN
IN CENTRAL U.S. WILL MEAN ONLY A SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM.  DONT EXPECT THE FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH OUR REGION
UNTIL MONDAY AS THE WAVE MOVES BY.  AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE LONG WAVE
STILL WELL TO THE WEST WHICH WILL HOLD THE FRONT ALONG THE EAST
COAST TUESDAY STILL KEEPING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION OVER AND EAST
OF MOUNTAINS THEN.

CL/ESS/AAR

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958 AM EDT TUE AUG 26 2003

RIDGE AND STRONG CAP WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORM ACTION TO OUR NORTH THIS
AFTERNOON.  WILL SEE ONLY A FEW FLAT CU CLOUDS AT BEST.  SO...ONLY
QUESTION BECOMES TEMPERATURES.

THE BIG NEWS...THIS SHOULD BE THE DAY CRW OFFICIALLY HITS THE 90
DEGREE MARK.  H850 TEMPS ON MORNING SOUNDINGS ARE AROUND 21C...A BIT
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY WHEN CRW GOT TO 89.  ALSO...ANOTHER DAY OF
DRYING HAS OCCURRED...AND CRW IS 3 TO 4 DEGREES AHEAD OF TEMP AT
THIS TIME YESTERDAY.  THIS IS PRETTY MUCH THE CASE AREAWIDE...SO
WILL PUMP UP TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES ACROSS THE BOARD.

.RLX...
WV...NONE.
VA...NONE.
KY...NONE.
OH...NONE.

CL

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315 AM EDT TUE AUG 26 2003

TODAY AND TONIGHT...
NOCTURNAL CONVECTION ONCE AGAIN FIRING AND RIDING ALONG SOUTHERN
EDGE OF WESTERLIES...ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND NORTHEAST OHIO
INTO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.  LOOKS LIKE THE COUNTY WARNING AREA WILL
BE SHELTERED FOR ONE MORE DAY BY THE UPPER RIDGE AS 500H HEIGHTS
AROUND 591 CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY BEFORE BEGINNING TO LOWER
TONIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH.  UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED 700H TEMP AT
PBZ/ILN AROUND +10C AND 850H TEMPS AROUND +20C...WHICH IS PLENTY
WARM ENOUGH TO PROVIDE STRONG CAP OVER REGION.  CURRENT CONVECTION
LIKELY ELEVATED DUE TO ATMOSPHERE COOLING.

SO EXPECT ANOTHER MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH TEMPERATURES SOARING TO
AROUND 90 IN WESTERN LOWLANDS.  REMOVED SLIGHT CHANCE FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST AS SUBSIDENCE AND TOO MUCH WARM AIR IN LOW AND MID LEVELS
PROVIDING STRONG CAP WILL KEEP CHANCE OF PRECIP NIL.  AS UPPER
HEIGHTS LOWER DURING EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...EXPECT NOCTURNAL
CONVECTION TO FIRE AGAIN BUT FURTHER SOUTH.  WILL CONTINUE WITH
CURRENT FORECAST OF LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS NORTH WITH THREAT OF
NOCTURNAL CONVECTION ROLLING SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHERN COUNTIES AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

GUIDANCE TEMPS AGAIN SEEM ON WARM SIDE AND WILL LEAN CLOSER TO
COOLER ETA NUMBERS.  THIS WORKED WELL FOR HIGHS ON MONDAY.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING
INTO OUR AREA DURING WEDNESDAY...THEN EITHER DISSIPATING OR LIFTING
NORTH AS AN EVEN WEAKER WARM FRONT ON THURSDAY.  ALTHOUGH DYNAMICS
ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE...ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WITH THE
FRONT WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED CONVECTION WEDNESDAY AND EARLY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN MORE ISOLATED BY THURSDAY.

NEXT FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY BECOMES VERY
INTERESTING FOR THIS WEEKEND. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE BUILDING A
STRONG UPPER HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN BY THE END OF THE
WEEK...WHICH EFFECTIVELY SLOWS THE FRONT TO A CRAWL...LEADING TO AN
UNSETTLED WEEKEND.  IT WILL NOT BE UNTIL LATER MONDAY THAT THE FRONT
GETS A KICK FROM ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH AND FRONT DROPPING INTO THE
MIDDLE OF THE NATION. FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE A MOSTLY DRY DAY EAST OF
THE OHIO RIVER...WITH PRECIPITATION SLOWLY SPREADING EASTWARD
FRIDAY NIGHT...AND CONTINUING ON THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BE A HEAVY RAIN EVENT AND WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.
TEMPERATURES WILL GO FROM THE SUMMER MUGGIES TO RATHER COOL SUNDAY
AND MONDAY AS A STRONG CANADIAN HIGH DROPS SOUTHWARD BEHIND THE
FRONT.

MOS TEMPERATURES LOOK REASONABLE AND FOLLOWED.

HC/JMV
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KYZ101>103-105-OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087-VAZ003-004-WVZ005>011-
013>020-024>040-046-047-270214-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
414 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEASTERN
OHIO...NORTHEASTERN KENTUCKY...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...AND MOST OF WEST
VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT FOR
SOUTHEAST OHIO...AND IN WEST VIRGINIA ALONG AND NORTH OF I-64.
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH ANY SEVERE
STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

LEONARDI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WEST VIRGINIA
1113 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2003

THE FOLLOWING REPORTS ARE UNOFFICIAL AND MAY HAVE BEEN COLLECTED
FROM UNTRAINED SOURCES

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

1109 PM    BRIDGEPORT                WV   WIND DAMAGE
08/26/03   HARRISON                       EVENT OCCURRED BETWEEN
                                          1054 PM AND 1109 PM
                                          LARGE BRANCHES BROKEN.