Severe Thunderstorm Warning 121, NWS Charleston, WV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
955 EDT FRI AUG 22 2003

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955 EDT FRI AUG 22 2003

MORNING UPDATE...
CURRENT PACKAGE LOOKS ON TRACK FOR THE MOST PART.  06Z MESOETA HAS A
DECENT HANDLE ON WHAT IS GOING ON NOW.  WILL UP POPS A TAD BASED ON
CURRENT RADAR.  TEMPERATURES LOOK ON TRACK AND ONLY OTHER CHANGE
WILL BE TAKING OUT AFT AND MORNING WORDING FOR 1ST PERIOD.

.RLX...
WV...NONE.
VA...NONE.
KY...NONE.
OH...NONE.

JS

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300 EDT FRI AUG 22 2003

TODAY AND TONIGHT...
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE CHANCE OF PRECIP WITH APPROACHING
FRONT AND TEMPERATURES.  CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS AT 06Z SHOWS FRONT
EXTENDING ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN BACK THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL
INDIANA AND INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS.  CURRENT CONVECTION...WHICH
PUSHED OFF THE FRONT EARLIER...ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO STRUGGLING TO
PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THICKNESS RIDGE SET UP ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO.

FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTH DURING DAY WHILE MOST
DYNAMICS CONTINUE INTO THE NORTHEAST.  QUESTION WILL BE WHEN WILL
CONVECTION FIRE TODAY AS WATER VAPOR AND ILN/PBZ SOUNDINGS ALL
INDICATE SIGNIFICANT DRIER AIR ABOVE 850H.  THIS SHOULD INHIBIT
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT UNTIL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON FOR AREAS AWAY
FROM THE FRONT.  WILL PLAY HIGH CHANCE ACROSS NORTH TODAY AND
GRADIENT DOWN TO LOW CHANCE FROM BKW SOUTH...AND THEN REVERSE FOR
TONIGHT WITH HIGH CHANCE ACROSS SOUTH AND EAST AND LOWER CHANCE IN
NORTHWEST EARLY DIMINISHING DURING EVENING.

EXPECTING ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY ACROSS LOWLANDS AS 850H TEMPS
AROUND +18C WITH DEWPOINTS IN 70S.  COULD SEE SOME 90 DEGREE TEMPS
IN HTS-CRW CORRIDOR AGAIN TODAY.

SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
FRONT PASSES SOUTH OF CWA EARLY SATURDAY WITH SHOWERS IN SOUTH
ENDING.  MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON HIGH PRESSURE TAKING CONTROL
SATURDAY THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY...COOLER AT FIRST...THEN A WARMING
TREND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGH CENTER SLIDES TO THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST.  FROM WEDNESDAY ON...NEWEST MODEL RUNS ARE TRENDING TO PUSH A
COLD FRONT CLOSE TO US BY THURSDAY. HAVE INTRODUCED LOW POPS ACROSS
NORTH ON THURSDAY. HESITATE TO CHANGE TOO MUCH TOO SOON THAT FAR
OUT. I THINK MODEL TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE A BIT TOO LOW NEXT
WEEK...GIVEN THE RATHER IMPRESSIVE 850MB WARM TONGUE SURGING IN
FROM THE PLAINS STATES...BUT NOT QUITE 90 DEGREES.

HC/JMV
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920 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2003

WITH MID 70S DEW POINTS ACROSS THE REGION...AM CONCERNED THAT
COOLING ALOFT COULD PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT.
WITH NO REAL KICKER THOUGH...WILL HOLD WITH CURRENT FORECAST FOR
NOW.

.END/RPY

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330 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2003

...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...
THE FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE OCCURRING AT THIS TIME
SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT.  HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES BY MORNING...BRINGING ANOTHER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION.  HAVE OPTED NOT
TO INCLUDE MENTION OF FOG AS THE AMOUNT OF FOG HAS BEEN LESS EACH
MORNING.

THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SLOWLY SOUTH INTO OUR SOUTHEASTERN OHIO
COUNTIES BY FRIDAY EVENING.  AS A RESULT...WILL HAVE 50 POPS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION WITH 40 POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS.

...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...
MODELS ARE VERY CONSISTENT FROM PREVIOUS RUNS WITH THE GFS RUNNING
ABOUT 6 HOURS AHEAD OF THE ETA ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT PUSHING
THROUGH THE REGION.  WITH THE TIME OF THE YEAR...WILL LEAN TOWARD
THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER SOLUTION OF THE ETA...WHICH KEEPS THE SLGT
CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE EXTREME SOUTH THROUGH MIDDAY ON SATURDAY.
AFTER THAT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH WITH DRIER AIR
AND COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.  AT THIS POINT...THINK THE COOLEST
NIGHT WILL PROBABLY BE ON SATURDAY NIGHT/SUN MORNING...BUT NOT BY
MUCH.  FOR THE TEMPERATURES...THE GUIDANCE WAS PRETTY CLOSE AND WAS
GENERALLY FOLLOWED.  THE FWC LOOKED A LITTLE WARM ON SATURDAY SO
WENT CLOSER TO THE MAV AND MET NUMBERS IN THE LOWLANDS.

...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL MARK THIS FORECAST PERIOD.  HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA WITH NO PRECIP.  GFS SHOWING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS SINKING SOUTHWARD DAY 7 (THURSDAY).  DID INCREASE
POPS SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE NORTH...BUT REMAINED BELOW SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CRITERIA...AS THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
FURTHER TO THE NORTH THAN THE MODEL IS INDICATING AT THIS TIME.
WILL SEE HOW THIS PLAYS OUT.

.END/ JSH/ESS/KF
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1018 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2003

NOT NEARLY AS MUCH FOG ACROSS OUR AREA THIS MORNING.  HOWEVER...HAZE
IS STILL BEING REPORTED IN MANY AREAS.

LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A FEW SHOWERS PUSHING SLOWLY EAST ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN WV MOUNTAINS.  THESE SHOWERS ARE IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF WHICH ROTATED AROUND THE UPPER HIGH OVER
THE REGION.

REGIONAL SOUNDINGS SHOW REGION HAS A MID-LEVEL CAP IN PLACE.
HOWEVER...FORECASTED TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS ARE SUFFICIENT TO
WEAKEN/REMOVE THE CAP AND EXPECT MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.  WILL UP POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN/CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS TO 30 POPS AS PRECIP ALREADY OCCURRING OVER THAT AREA.
THE UPDATED 30 POPS WILL ALSO MATCH UP BETTER WITH THE OTHER POP
GRIDS IN THAT REGION.  WILL LEAVE REMAINDER OF REGION AS 20 POPS.

OTHERWISE...WILL MAKE ONLY MINOR TWEAKS.

.END/ JSH
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KYZ101>103-105-OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087-VAZ003-004-WVZ005>011-
013>020-024>040-046-047-221500-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
530 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEASTERN
OHIO...NORTHEASTERN KENTUCKY...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...AND MOST OF WEST
VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

COLEMAN

OHZ066-221100-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
556 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2003

HERE IS A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...

AT 5:55 AM WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATED A VERY STRONG
THUNDERSTORM MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN LICKING COUNTY OHIO AT
25 MPH.  THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF
40 MPH...AS WELL AS VERY HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL HAIL.  PONDING OF
WATER ON ROADWAYS IS LIKELY AND MOTORISTS SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND USE
CAUTION.

THIS STORM WILL MOVE INTO THE THORNVILLE AREA AROUND 6:15 AM AND
ZIONTOWN AROUND 6:35 AM.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.

HC

OHZ066-067-075-076-084-221330-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
730 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2003

HERE IS A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...

AT 7:30 AM A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDED ACROSS CENTRAL PERRY AND
NORTHERN MORGAN COUNTIES OF SOUTHEAST OHIO. THESE STORMS LIKELY
CONTAIN TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS...SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.  THIS
LINE WILL BE DRIFTING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF PERRY AND
MORGAN COUNTIES...AND INTO WASHINGTON...ATHENS AND VINTON COUNTIES
OF SOUTHEAST OHIO THROUGH 9:30 AM. THE STORMS WILL LIKELY WEAKEN
AFTER 9 AM. PERSONS SHOULD BE WATCH OUT FOR PONDING OF WATER IN LOW
LYING AREAS AS WELL AS RAPID RISES IN CREEKS AND STREAMS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.

JMV

KYZ101-OHZ083-085>087-221400-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
900 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2003

HERE IS A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...FOR SOUTHEASTERN OHIO AND EXTREME NORTHEASTERN KENTUCKY.

AT 9:00 AM A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDED ACROSS THE REGION.
THESE STORMS LIKELY CONTAIN TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS...SMALL HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS.  THIS LINE WILL BE DRIFTING SOUTHWARD ACROSS JACKSON
AND LAWRENCE COUNTIES.

THE STORMS WILL LIKELY WEAKEN AFTER 10 AM...AS THUNDERSTORMS MOVE
FURTHER SOUTHWARD.  PERSONS SHOULD BE WATCH OUT FOR PONDING OF WATER
IN LOW LYING AREAS AS WELL AS RAPID RISES IN CREEKS AND STREAMS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.

OHZ083>086-WVZ007-008-221500-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1004 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2003

HERE IS A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...FOR VINTON...JACKSON...MEIGS...AND GALLIA COUNTIES IN
SOUTHEASTERN OHIO...MASON...AND JACKSON COUNTIES IN WEST VIRGINIA.

HEAVY RAIN WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY AS THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO
PUSH SOUTHEAST...AND CONVERGE ACROSS NORTHERN GALLIA COUNTY.  AREAS
WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL INCLUDE VINTON...WESTERN MEIGS...AND
NORTHERN GALLIA COUNTIES.  RAINFALL AMOUNTS AROUND A HALF AN INCH OR
MORE AN HOUR ARE POSSIBLE.

AS RAIN CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA...PERSONS SHOULD BE WATCH OUT FOR
PONDING OF WATER IN LOW LYING AREAS AS WELL AS RAPID RISES IN CREEKS
AND STREAMS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.

WVZ015-016-024>026-221630-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1134 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2003

HERE IS A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...MINGO...LOGAN...BOONE...KANAWHA...AND ROANE COUNTIES.

A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS HAVE POPPED UP ACROSS CENTRAL WEST
VIRGINIA.  THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH SMALL
HAIL...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY RAIN.  RAINFALL AMOUNTS AROUND
AN INCH AN HOUR ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

AS RAIN CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA...PERSONS SHOULD BE WATCH OUT FOR
PONDING OF WATER IN LOW LYING AREAS AS WELL AS RAPID RISES IN CREEKS
AND STREAMS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.