Severe Thunderstorm Warning 74, NWS Raleigh, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
235 PM EDT SAT MAY 10 2003

RIDGE TO OUR WEST HAS FLATTENED OUT TODAY SO OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL
APPALACHIAN CONVECTION OF LAST NIGHT AND TODAY HAS MOVED GENERALLY
EAST AND REMAINED NORTH OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.  HOWEVER
DESTABILIZATION WILL FIRE CONVECTION OVER NORTHERN HALF THIS EVENING
WITH SOME POSSIBLY BECOMING SEVERE.

COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO CROSS AREA LATE SUNDAY. MODELS DIVERGE A BIT
ON TIMING BUT LOOKING AT HOW FAR THE FRONT HAS TO MOVE TO REACH
AREA...AGREE WITH LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING PASSAGE.  SPC IS
CONCERNED ABOUT POSSIBLE SEVERE DURING AFTERNOON AHEAD OF FRONT.
CONDITIONS WILL BE QUITE WARM AND JUICY BUT WIND FIELDS BECOME
PREDOMINATELY WESTERLY.  WILL GO WITH CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS FOR SUNDAY WITH SOME BEING POTENTIALLY SEVERE.  AGREE
WITH SPC CONCERN.  ALTHOUGH DYNAMICS WILL BE WEAKENING SYSTEM
CERTAINLY HAS HAD A TROUBLING HISTORY.

AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE...COOL AND DRY NORTHWEST FLOW RETURNS AND
CONTINUES THROUGH MIDWEEK. SOLUTIONS FOR WEEKS END ARE QUITE
DIVERGENT.  WILL FAVOR CLIMATOLOGY FOR END OF WEEK.

.RAH...NONE.

SWH

NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-101200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
550 AM EDT SAT MAY 10 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...PRODUCING DAMAGING
WINDS AND POSSIBLY SOME LARGE HAIL...OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA TODAY INTO EARLY TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A
LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME...BUT INTERESTED PARTIES SHOULD BE AWARE THAT THIS
EXPECTATION MAY CHANGE LATER TODAY OR EARLY TOMORROW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS MAY
MOVE SOUTHEAST OUT OF VIRGINIA INTO NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA EAST OF
THE TRIANGLE IN THE MID TO LATE MORNING. A FEW SEVERE STORMS MAY
ALSO MIGRATE ACROSS THE VIRGINIA STATE LINE INTO OTHER NORTHERN
COUNTIES LATER TODAY INTO EARLY TONIGHT.

NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-102359-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1145 AM EDT SAT MAY 10 2003

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER...ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
MAINLY ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE PIEDMONT AND COASTAL
PLAIN FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE MAIN
THREAT WILL BE FROM ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OR LARGE HAIL.

SKYWARN SPOTTERS...
NETWORK ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE
TRIANGLE AREA LATER TODAY.

SYNOPSIS...TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S
THIS AFTERNOON. THE AIR MASS WILL BECOME QUITE UNSTABLE WITH DEW
POINTS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. A STATIONARY
BOUNDARY OVER THE NORTHEAST PIEDMONT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A WARM
FRONT AND MOVE INTO SOUTHERN VIRGINIA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS BOUNDARY
MAY FOCUS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AFTER 200 PM. IF SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP... THEY ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN. THE AREAS MOST
LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED ARE THOSE NORTH OF THE GREENSBORO... RALEIGH
AND ROCKY MOUNT AREAS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER DETAILS
FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

PWB

NCZ007>011-110220-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
427 PM EDT SAT MAY 10 2003

...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER...

THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING IN SOUTHERN VIRGINIA...AND ARE MOVING
TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST. THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE VIRGINIA
BORDER COUNTIES OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...FROM PERSON COUNTY TO
HALIFAX COUNTY...BETWEEN 500 PM AND 600 PM. THE STORMS MAY BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...LARGE HAIL...AND DEADLY
LIGHTNING. SOME COMMUNITIES THAT COULD BE AFFECTED INCLUDE OAK
HILL...STOVALL...MIDDLEBURG...AND WARRENTON.

PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD PREPARE TO SEEK SHELTER...AND BOATERS ON KERR
LAKE AND LAKE GASTON SHOULD PREPARE TO MOVE TO SHORE. IF YOU ARE
CAUGHT OUTSIDE... SEEK REFUGE FROM THE STORM IN A STRONG BUILDING.
DO NOT SEEK SHELTER UNDER TREES OR OTHER ISOLATED TALL OBJECTS.
THESE ATTRACT LIGHTNING. DO NOT DRIVE INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS
THE ROAD.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.

DGS